FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of FFI Holdings Ltd stock A$4.25, price A$4.71, that is 9.8% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.93 – A$7.17 · fair‑value band A$3.19 – A$5.31 · the A$4.71 price screens above the A$4.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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FFI Holdings Limited, a food processing company, engages in the processing, manufacturing, packaging, and distribution of food products in Australia. The company operates through the Food Operations and Investment Property segments.
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It manufactures and sells cooking chocolate, chocolate-coated confectionery, sugar confectionery, cake decorations, ready-to-roll icing, and popcorn snack foods under the Nemar, Golden Popcorn, and Orchard Icing brands; processes and packages home cooking need products under the Prepact and Snowflake brands.
The company also engages in contract packing for third-party brands; and manufactures, sells, and processes apple products, fruit and baker's fillings, chocolate, chocolate compounds, and cake decoration toppings for the bakery and pastry cooks industry.
In addition, it engages in industrial and commercial property investment and leasing activities. The company serves manufacturing, wholesale, and retail food companies. FFI Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Jandakot, Australia.
Stock analysis
FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI) currently trades at A$4.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.25, 10% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$11.04 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$4.71 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.6300, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$3.19 (bear) to A$5.31 (bull), the price of A$4.71 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
FFI Holdings Ltd reported revenue of A$62.6M in FY2026 versus A$37.2M in FY2022, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$3.2M in FY2026, compounding +27.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$64.9M (≈ $44.8M) Micro · P/E ratio 19.6 · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) A$0.2400 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 5.2% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −10%, FFI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$3.19Fair Value A$4.25BullA$5.31
Price A$4.71 · Downside -9.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0054 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$9.41A$14.98A$24.0979
Growth DCFA$9.61A$14.60A$22.2778
5Y EBITDA ExitA$5.77A$8.29A$11.1376
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$9.41A$14.98A$24.0979
Owner EarningsA$5.80A$9.16A$14.6675
5Y Revenue ExitA$5.29A$7.38A$9.9473
5Y EBITDA ExitA$5.77A$8.29A$11.1376
5Y P/E ExitA$5.55A$7.87A$10.2471
10Y Revenue ExitA$6.52A$8.80A$11.6968
10Y EBITDA ExitA$6.94A$9.45A$12.6369
10Y P/E ExitA$6.79A$9.15A$11.9365
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$1.62A$5.05A$6.7265
Lynch FVA$1.10A$1.57A$2.0461
PEG = 1.0A$1.10A$1.57A$2.0457
EPVA$2.73A$3.17A$3.5674
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$0.5800A$1.29A$2.2365
DDM Multi-StageA$0.5800A$0.9900A$1.3466
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$3.75A$5.00A$6.2563
P/S MultipleA$3.03A$4.05A$5.0658
P/B MultipleA$4.00A$5.34A$6.6755
EV/EBITA$4.64A$6.09A$7.5366
EV/EBITDAA$4.43A$5.81A$7.1867
EV/RevenueA$3.40A$4.73A$6.0554
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.4200A$0.6300A$0.790055
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$9.61A$14.60A$22.2778
Rev-Margin DCFA$5.29A$7.48A$10.0573
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$3.60A$3.67A$3.9476
ROIC CompounderA$2.73A$3.17A$3.5672
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$3.10A$4.43A$5.7667
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.3% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+2.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.7% vs 0.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−9.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.3% · Below median
Return on assets4.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.8% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)19.6× · Pricier than median
P/B1.05× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.04× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)6.5× · Cheaper than median
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Is FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$4.25 versus a price of A$4.71, about 10% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FFI?
Our model-based fair value for FFI Holdings Ltd is A$4.25 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$4.71.
What is the quality score of FFI?
FFI Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$4.25 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.19, optimistic scenario A$5.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FFI Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$4.25, about 10% lower versus a price of A$4.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$3.19, optimistic scenario A$5.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
FFI Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$62.8M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does FFI Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
FFI Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.78% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
FFI Holdings Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.225 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 19, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 1991. The payout ratio is 93.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.27 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, FFI Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -13.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.3 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FFI use?
Our models discount FFI Holdings Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For FFI Holdings Ltd that is -13.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at FFI Holdings Ltd grew +11.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -13.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into FFI Holdings Ltd (-13.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.39 %: that much free cash flow FFI Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FFI Holdings Ltd it is A$4.25 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of A$4.71. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is FFI Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, FFI trades above its calculated fair value: price A$4.71, fair value A$4.25, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FFI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$4.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$4.25). For FFI Holdings Ltd the two are A$0.4600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FFI Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values FFI Holdings Ltd at about A$64.9M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is A$4.71; our models calculate a fair value of A$4.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FFI?
Our models span a range for FFI Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario A$3.19, base A$4.25, optimistic A$5.31 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price A$4.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FFI?
FFI Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$4.25 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 18.0. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
Balance-sheet figures for FFI Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 5.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FFI from its 52-week high?
FFI Holdings Ltd trades at A$4.71, about 4% below its 52-week high of A$4.89 and 17% above the low of A$4.03 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$4.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FFI Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FFI Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price A$4.71, calculated fair value A$4.25 (−10%), Quality Score 48/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FFI calculated?
We run FFI Holdings Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$4.25 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. FFI Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$4.71. Our model-based fair value is A$4.25, about 10% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FFI Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI) come from?
Earnings per share at FFI Holdings Ltd grew +4.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.9 %, EBIT margin +0.8 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of FFI Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
The market capitalisation of FFI Holdings Ltd is A$64.9M (≈ $44.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FFI Holdings Ltd is 1.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
Earnings per share at FFI Holdings Ltd are A$0.2400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
The dividend yield of FFI Holdings Ltd is 4.8% (payout 93.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
The net margin of FFI Holdings Ltd is 5.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FFI Holdings Ltd is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FFI Holdings Ltd is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
The operating margin of FFI Holdings Ltd is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
Revenue at FFI Holdings Ltd is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI)?
Earnings per share at FFI Holdings Ltd are growing −72.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does FFI Holdings Ltd (FFI) hold?
FFI Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$4.2M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026