FirstGroup PLC (FGP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of FirstGroup PLC stock £4.64, price £2.32, upside +99.7%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.7373 – £2.34 · fair‑value band £3.48 – £5.80 · the £2.32 price screens below the £4.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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FirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom. It operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. The First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 5,800 buses and coaches in the United Kingdom.
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The First Rail segment operates a passenger rail network that provides long-distance, commuter, regional, and sleeper services through a portfolio of Great Western Railway, South Western Railway, and Avanti West Coast franchises; and hull trains and Lumos.
FirstGroup plc was founded in 1986 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
FirstGroup PLC (FGP) currently trades at £2.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £4.64, implying the stock looks roughly 50% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £9.16 per share, and 19 of the 25 models we run sit above the £2.32 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £0.6900, and 6 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £3.48 (bear) to £5.80 (bull), the price of £2.32 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2013: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2013.
FirstGroup PLC reported revenue of £4.8B in FY2026 versus £4.6B in FY2022, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was £118M in FY2026, compounding −34.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £1.3B Small · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 0.28 · EPS (TTM) £0.2180 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 16.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 100%, FGP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£3.48Fair Value £4.64Bull£5.80
Price £2.32 · Upside +99.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0794 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2013: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2013.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.9% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Per share before 2013divided by the spin-off factor 1.2265
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.6% vs 10.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−24.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−35.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −26.5% a year for the price and −37.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside+99.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−14.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "FirstGroup PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FGP
Frequently asked questions
Is FirstGroup PLC (FGP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £4.64 versus a price of £2.32, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FGP?
Our model-based fair value for FirstGroup PLC is £4.64 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £2.32.
What is the quality score of FGP?
FirstGroup PLC has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £4.64 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario £3.48, optimistic scenario £5.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FirstGroup PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £4.64, about +100% upside versus a price of £2.32 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £3.48, optimistic scenario £5.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
FirstGroup PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £4.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does FirstGroup PLC pay a dividend?
FirstGroup PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 3.01% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of FirstGroup PLC (FGP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
FirstGroup PLC pays a dividend of £0.07 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 2, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 37.6% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 35.0%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 10.50 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, FirstGroup PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -24.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.9 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FGP use?
Our models discount FirstGroup PLC at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.68, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For FirstGroup PLC that is -24.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has FirstGroup PLC (FGP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at FirstGroup PLC grew +1.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -24.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of FirstGroup PLC (FGP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into FirstGroup PLC (-24.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 28.34 %: that much free cash flow FirstGroup PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FirstGroup PLC it is £4.64 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of £2.32. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is FirstGroup PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, FGP trades below its calculated fair value: price £2.32, fair value £4.64, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FGP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£2.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£4.64). For FirstGroup PLC the two are £2.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FirstGroup PLC worth?
The market values FirstGroup PLC at about £1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is £2.32; our models calculate a fair value of £4.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FGP?
Our models span a range for FirstGroup PLC: cautious scenario £3.48, base £4.64, optimistic £5.80 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price £2.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FGP?
FirstGroup PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £4.64 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 11.5 (reported 10.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 8.7. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.9, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
What is the PEG ratio of FGP?
The PEG ratio of FirstGroup PLC is 0.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
Balance-sheet figures for FirstGroup PLC (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 16.7%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FGP from its 52-week high?
FirstGroup PLC trades at £2.32, about 1% below its 52-week high of £2.34 and 51% above the low of £1.54 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £4.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FirstGroup PLC?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FirstGroup PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price £2.32, calculated fair value £4.64 (+100%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FGP calculated?
We run FirstGroup PLC through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £4.64 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. FirstGroup PLC currently trades 50% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £2.32. Our model-based fair value is £4.64, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FirstGroup PLC right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (£3.48). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of FirstGroup PLC (FGP) come from?
Earnings per share at FirstGroup PLC grew +11.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.7 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of FirstGroup PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
The market capitalisation of FirstGroup PLC is £1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FirstGroup PLC is 0.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
Earnings per share at FirstGroup PLC are £0.2180 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
The dividend yield of FirstGroup PLC is 3.0% (payout 37.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 35.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
The net margin of FirstGroup PLC is 2.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FirstGroup PLC is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FirstGroup PLC is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
The operating margin of FirstGroup PLC is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
Revenue at FirstGroup PLC is growing −14.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg 0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FirstGroup PLC (FGP)?
Earnings per share at FirstGroup PLC are growing −5.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does FirstGroup PLC (FGP) carry?
The net debt of FirstGroup PLC is £725M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026