FirstGroup plc (FGP) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · GB · Market cap 958M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from £4.80 to £3.74 (−22.1%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +2.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 107% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (£2.81). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.6280 – £2.19 · fair‑value band £2.81 – £4.68 · the £1.81 price screens below the £3.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
FirstGroup plc (FGP) currently trades at £1.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.74, implying the stock looks roughly 107.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, FirstGroup plc generated revenue of £5.0B at a net margin of 2.6%. Revenue declined 3.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.6%. Net debt stands at £725M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £2.81 (bear case) to £4.68 (bull case); at £1.81, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at 107%, FGP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£6.93) versus Dividend Discount (£0.7600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
FirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom. It operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. The First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 5,800 buses and coaches in the United Kingdom.
Full company description
FirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom. It operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. The First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 5,800 buses and coaches in the United Kingdom. The First Rail segment operates a passenger rail network that provides long-distance, commuter, regional, and sleeper services through a portfolio of Great Western Railway, South Western Railway, and Avanti West Coast franchises; and hull trains and Lumos. FirstGroup plc was founded in 1986 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
FirstGroup plc reported revenue of £4.8B in FY2026 versus £4.6B in FY2022, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was £118M in FY2026, compounding −34.3%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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