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FirstGroup plc (FGP) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · GB · Market cap 921M GBX

Pricep1.84
Fair Valuep4.80
Upside+161.2%
Quality95/100
Evidence: High Range p3.06 – p6.16

Analysis

FirstGroup plc (FGP) currently trades at p1.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is p4.80 — implying the stock looks roughly 161.2% undervalued today. We read business quality at 95/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high) — always confirm before acting.

About the company

FirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom. It operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. The First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 5,800 buses and coaches in the United Kingdom. The First Rail segment operates a passenger rail network that provides long-distance, commuter, regional, and sleeper services through a portfolio of Great Western Railway, South Western Railway, and Avanti West Coast franchises; and hull trains and Lumos. FirstGroup plc was founded in 1986 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

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How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.