National Beverage Corp (FIZZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of National Beverage Corp stock $31.97, price $37.14, that is 13.9% below the price, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.02 – $50.25 · fair‑value band $22.63 – $43.17 · the $37.14 price screens above the $31.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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National Beverage Corp., through its subsidiaries, develops, produces, markets, and sells a portfolio of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks in the United States and Canada.
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The company's Power+ brand portfolio offers sparkling water products under the LaCroix brands; non-carbonated water under the Clear Fruit; energy drink and shots under the Rip It brand; juice and juice-based products under Everfresh, Everfresh Premier Varietals, and Mr. Pure brands; and carbonated soft drinks under Shasta and Faygo brands.
It serves retailers, as well as various smaller up-and-down-the-street accounts through the take-home, convenience, and food-service distribution channels. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
National Beverage Corp. is a subsidiary of IBS Partners, Ltd.
Stock analysis
National Beverage Corp (FIZZ) currently trades at $37.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.97, 14% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $37.35 per share, and 4 of the 23 models we run sit above the $37.14 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.03, and 19 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $22.63 (bear) to $43.17 (bull), the price of $37.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
National Beverage Corp reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2026 versus $1.1B in FY2022, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $184M in FY2026, compounding +3.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $3.5B Mid · P/E ratio 20.0 · P/S ratio 2.95 · EPS (TTM) $1.86 · Net margin 14.8% · Return on equity 40.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 33.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 17.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −14%, FIZZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$22.63Fair Value $31.97Bull$43.17
Price $37.14 · Downside -13.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9784 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $7,945, on Jul 20, 2026.
BuyGlenn J. WaldmanDirector250 shares at $31.78$7,945Jul 20, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.3% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.0% vs 11.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 20%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.4% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: National Beverage sustains capital returns through frequent special dividends, yet its business quality remains constrained by thin evidence of durable advantages amid ongoing margin and volume pressures.
Main risk: Rising aluminum input costs are squeezing margins and softening volumes, directly threatening the sustainability of the company's frequent special dividend returns.
National Beverage keeps returning large sums via frequent special dividends while input costs like aluminum squeeze margins and volumes soften. The October shareholder meeting reaffirmed leadership and pay packages even after the latest earnings showed profit pressure. Will pricing actions and August order rebounds offset those cost challenges before they erode the capital return track record?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−13.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)40.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets21.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)14.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)17.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.0× · Pricier than median
P/B5.47× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.95× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)22.3× · Pricier than median
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Is National Beverage Corp (FIZZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.97 versus a price of $37.14, about 14% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FIZZ?
Our model-based fair value for National Beverage Corp is $31.97 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.14.
What is the quality score of FIZZ?
National Beverage Corp has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.97 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.63, optimistic scenario $43.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Beverage Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $31.97, about 14% lower versus a price of $37.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.63, optimistic scenario $43.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
National Beverage Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, National Beverage Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +8.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FIZZ use?
Our models discount National Beverage Corp at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For National Beverage Corp that is +8.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has National Beverage Corp (FIZZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at National Beverage Corp grew +1.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +8.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of National Beverage Corp (FIZZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into National Beverage Corp (+8.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.49 %: that much free cash flow National Beverage Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Beverage Corp it is $31.97 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $37.14. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is National Beverage Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, FIZZ trades above its calculated fair value: price $37.14, fair value $31.97, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FIZZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($31.97). For National Beverage Corp the two are $5.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Beverage Corp worth?
The market values National Beverage Corp at about $3.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $37.14; our models calculate a fair value of $31.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FIZZ?
Our models span a range for National Beverage Corp: cautious scenario $22.63, base $31.97, optimistic $43.17 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $37.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FIZZ?
National Beverage Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $31.97 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2021 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 24.8. Other multiples: PEG 4.0, P/B 5.5, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 13.1.
What is the PEG ratio of FIZZ?
The PEG ratio of National Beverage Corp is 4.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Beverage Corp (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 40.1%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FIZZ from its 52-week high?
National Beverage Corp trades at $37.14, about 1% below its 52-week high of $37.65 and 33% above the low of $28.02 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $31.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Beverage Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Beverage Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $37.14, calculated fair value $31.97 (−14%), Quality Score 69/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FIZZ calculated?
We run National Beverage Corp through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $31.97 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. National Beverage Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $37.14. Our model-based fair value is $31.97, about 14% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Beverage Corp right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($22.63 to $43.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of National Beverage Corp (FIZZ) come from?
Earnings per share at National Beverage Corp grew +10.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin +2.6 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of National Beverage Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
The market capitalisation of National Beverage Corp is $3.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Beverage Corp is 2.95 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
Earnings per share at National Beverage Corp are $1.86 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
The net margin of National Beverage Corp is 14.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Beverage Corp is 40.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Beverage Corp is 33.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
The operating margin of National Beverage Corp is 17.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)?
Earnings per share at National Beverage Corp are growing −16.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does National Beverage Corp (FIZZ) hold?
National Beverage Corp holds more cash than debt, $291M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026