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GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of GPGI, Inc. stock $9.22, price $14.95, that is 38.3% below the price, quality 22 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Industrials US

GI GPGI, Inc. logo Thin data Nov 11, 2026

GPGI, Inc.

GPGI · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 38% below what the stock costs today.

Positive coverage
Moderate debt
0.1% dividend yield · Token dividend
Insiders bought $1.2M (6M)
Costs 166 times its yearly profit.
Fair value $9.22 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 22/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −25.5 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/8)
Narrow moat 12/100
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$25.98 $3.45 Fair Value $9.22 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.45 – $25.98 · fair‑value band $6.91 – $11.52 · the $14.95 price screens above the $9.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.

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Company profile

GPGI, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides sustainable injection molding solutions worldwide. The company's CompoSecure business provides metal payment cards, security, and authentication solutions.

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It offers engineered injection molding equipment and aftermarket tooling and services focuses on developing highly technical precision technologies instrumental in the delivery of food, beverages, medical devices, and other applications including general packaging and closures, thinwall packaging, and consumer products.

The company was formerly known as CompoSecure, Inc. and changed its name to GPGI, Inc. in January 2026. GPGI, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is based in Somerset, New Jersey.

Stock analysis

GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) currently trades at $14.95, while our estimate is $9.22, 38% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $6.91 (bear) to $11.52 (bull), the price of $14.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

GPGI, Inc. reported revenue of $59.8M in FY2025 versus $268M in FY2021, a compound −31.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$136M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $4.4B Mid · P/E ratio 166.1 · EPS (TTM) $0.0900 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Return on equity −3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 42.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin −324,713% · Free cash flow −$23.3M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −38%, GPGI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $6.91 Fair Value $9.22 Bull $11.52
Price $14.95 · Downside -38.3%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 22/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 2
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 2
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 75
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 50
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 33
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 41
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 15
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors bought shares worth $1.2M, most recently on Jun 11, 2026. Buying cluster

  • BuyThomas R. KnottOfficer, Director, 10% owner2× since Mar 17, 2026: 129,250 shares, avg. $13.51$1.7MJun 11, 2026
  • BuyKevin M MoriartyDirector3,956 shares at $12.64$50,000May 26, 2026
  • BuyKrishna MikkilineniDirector8,106 shares at $12.34$100,031May 14, 2026
  • BuyKurt SchoenOfficer2× since Mar 17, 2026: 7,000 shares, avg. $14.47$101,320May 13, 2026
  • BuyRebecca Corbin LoreeDirector3,925 shares at $12.87$50,515May 12, 2026
  • BuyJohn D. CoteDirector5,800 shares at $17.10$99,180Mar 17, 2026
  • SaleJane J. ThompsonDirector2× since Mar 17, 2026: 27,334 shares, avg. $16.91$462,218Mar 17, 2026

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−85.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−45.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
32.3% (2020) → −23.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

GPGI screens overvalued: fair value 38% below the price. Compare with ATI Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (68 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Compare GPGI, Inc. with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 266 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 22 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −38.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −26.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.76× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 166.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B 17.98× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 67
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)62 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)1 · sector 24

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039 ¥9.28 ¥12.62 +36% vs GPGI
Commercial Metals Company CMC $64.24 $83.04 +29% vs GPGI
Mueller Industries, Inc MLI $55.00 $50.63 −8% vs GPGI
ESAB Corporation ESAB $87.13 $56.91 −35% vs GPGI
Western Superconducting Technologies Co 688122 ¥44.04 ¥26.76 −39% vs GPGI
Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS $297.37 $140.03 −53% vs GPGI
SINOMACH HEAVY EQUIPMENT GROUP CO.,LTD researches, 601399 ¥3.05 ¥1.42 −53% vs GPGI
ATI Inc ATI $182.72 $46.69 −74% vs GPGI
Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG ₹1,725 ₹390.35 −77% vs GPGI
JL Mag Rare-Earth Co 300748 ¥24.63 ¥5.06 −79% vs GPGI

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GPGI, Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GPGI, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GPGI

Frequently asked questions

Is GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $9.22 versus a price of $14.95, about 38% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GPGI?
Our estimate for GPGI, Inc. is $9.22 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.95.
What is the quality score of GPGI?
GPGI, Inc. has a Quality Score of 22/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GPGI, Inc. (GPGI)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $9.22 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Cautious scenario $6.91, optimistic scenario $11.52. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the GPGI, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $9.22, about 38% lower versus a price of $14.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.91, optimistic scenario $11.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does GPGI, Inc. pay a dividend?
GPGI, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.05% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 11, 2026).
How much is the dividend of GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
GPGI, Inc. pays a dividend of $0.008 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 17, 2026. The payout ratio is 8.9% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.1% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.1% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of GPGI, Inc. (GPGI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GPGI, Inc. it is $9.22 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of $14.95.
Is GPGI, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, GPGI trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.95, fair value $9.22, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GPGI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.22). For GPGI, Inc. the two are $5.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GPGI, Inc. worth?
The market values GPGI, Inc. at about $4.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is $14.95; our models calculate a fair value of $9.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GPGI?
Our models span a range for GPGI, Inc.: cautious scenario $6.91, base $9.22, optimistic $11.52 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price $14.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GPGI?
GPGI, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 166.1 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 18.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of GPGI, Inc. (GPGI)?
Balance-sheet figures for GPGI, Inc. (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity −3.8%, debt of 0.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 22/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GPGI from its 52-week high?
GPGI, Inc. trades at $14.95, about 42% below its 52-week high of $25.98 and 40% above the low of $10.66 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GPGI, Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GPGI, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price $14.95, calculated fair value $9.22 (−38%), Quality Score 22/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. GPGI, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GPGI, Inc. (GPGI)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $14.95. Our estimate is $9.22, about 38% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GPGI, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (22/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of GPGI, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of GPGI, Inc. (GPGI)?
The market capitalisation of GPGI, Inc. is $4.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of GPGI, Inc. (GPGI)?
Earnings per share at GPGI, Inc. are $0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 166.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of GPGI, Inc. (GPGI)?
The dividend yield of GPGI, Inc. is 0.1% (payout 8.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the return on equity of GPGI, Inc. (GPGI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GPGI, Inc. is −3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GPGI, Inc. (GPGI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GPGI, Inc. is 42.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GPGI, Inc. (GPGI)?
The operating margin of GPGI, Inc. is −324,713% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) generate?
The free cash flow of GPGI, Inc. is −$23.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) hold?
GPGI, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $115M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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