Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG stock €0.39, price €1.68, that is 76.8% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.4000 – €2.86 · fair‑value band €0.2700 – €0.5100 · the €1.68 price screens above the €0.3900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Maschinenfabrik HEID AG operates as a machine tool manufacturing company in Austria and internationally. It is involved in the rental of machinery; service and modernization of special machines; and sale of DVS Group machines. The company was founded in 1883 and is based in Stockerau, Austria.
Stock analysis
Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED) currently trades at €1.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.3900, 77% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €2.15 per share, and 2 of the 10 models we run sit above the €1.68 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €0.1200, and 8 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €0.2700 (bear) to €0.5100 (bull), the price of €1.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Maschinenfabrik HEID AG reported revenue of €0 in FY2025 versus €242K in FY2021. Reported net income was €96.9K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €7.3M Micro · P/E ratio 168.0 · EPS (TTM) €0.0100 · Return on equity 0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −4,502% · Revenue (TTM) €3.5K · Revenue growth (YoY) +294%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 320% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −77%, HED screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (€0.1200 to €3.04). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear€0.2700Fair Value €0.3900Bull€0.5100
Price €1.68 · Downside -76.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0086 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.22/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−50.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−54.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−40.4%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.6% vs −9.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−10% → −674%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 23.7%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+59.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +55.8% a year for the price.
Compare Maschinenfabrik HEID AG with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tools & Accessories · 128 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−76.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)294.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Tools & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Maschinenfabrik HEID AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HED
Frequently asked questions
Is Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.3900 versus the last price from Oct 21, 2026 of €1.68, about 77% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HED?
Our model-based fair value for Maschinenfabrik HEID AG is €0.3900 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 21, 2026): €1.68.
What is the quality score of HED?
Maschinenfabrik HEID AG has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.3900 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.2700, optimistic scenario €0.5100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Maschinenfabrik HEID AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.3900, about 77% lower versus the last price from Oct 21, 2026 of €1.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.2700, optimistic scenario €0.5100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED)?
Maschinenfabrik HEID AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.5K (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Maschinenfabrik HEID AG would have to grow free cash flow by +59.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -40.4 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HED use?
Our models discount Maschinenfabrik HEID AG at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for Austria. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Maschinenfabrik HEID AG that is +59.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Maschinenfabrik HEID AG grew -40.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +59.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (+59.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.39 %: that much free cash flow Maschinenfabrik HEID AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Maschinenfabrik HEID AG it is €0.3900 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of €1.68. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Maschinenfabrik HEID AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, HED trades above its calculated fair value: price €1.68, fair value €0.3900, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HED?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.3900). For Maschinenfabrik HEID AG the two are €1.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Maschinenfabrik HEID AG worth?
The market values Maschinenfabrik HEID AG at about €7.3M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is €1.68; our models calculate a fair value of €0.3900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HED?
Our models span a range for Maschinenfabrik HEID AG: cautious scenario €0.2700, base €0.3900, optimistic €0.5100 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price €1.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HED?
Maschinenfabrik HEID AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 168.0 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €0.3900 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 51.4. Other multiples: P/B 0.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED)?
Balance-sheet figures for Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 0.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HED from its 52-week high?
Maschinenfabrik HEID AG trades at €1.68, about 15% below its 52-week high of €1.98 and 320% above the low of €0.4000 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.3900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Maschinenfabrik HEID AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Techtronic Industries Company, Snap-on Incorporated, Stanley Black & Decker, Inc, Lincoln Electric Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Maschinenfabrik HEID AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price €1.68, calculated fair value €0.3900 (−77%), Quality Score 46/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HED calculated?
We run Maschinenfabrik HEID AG through 10 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €0.3900 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Maschinenfabrik HEID AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 21, 2026 and stands at €1.68. Our model-based fair value is €0.3900, about 77% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Maschinenfabrik HEID AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.5100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (€0.2700 to €0.5100) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED)?
The market capitalisation of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG is €7.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED)?
Earnings per share at Maschinenfabrik HEID AG are €0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 168.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG is −1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED)?
The operating margin of Maschinenfabrik HEID AG is −4,502% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED)?
Revenue at Maschinenfabrik HEID AG is growing +294% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED)?
Earnings per share at Maschinenfabrik HEID AG are growing −60.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Maschinenfabrik HEID AG (HED) hold?
Maschinenfabrik HEID AG holds more cash than debt, €64.6K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 4, 2026