Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hapag Lloyd AG stock €109, price €129, that is 15.9% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €88.77 – €275.93 · fair‑value band €81.53 – €135.88 · the €129.20 price screens above the €108.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Hapag-Lloyd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a liner shipping company in Germany, the United States, Asia, the rest of Europe, the Pacific, the Atlantic, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Liner Shipping; and Terminal & Infrastructure segments.
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The company's vessel and container fleets are used for transporting dry and special cargo, dangerous goods, coffee, and reefer cargo.
It also offers bilateral EDI, a directly connected electronic data interchange; application programming interface (API) portals for offers, contract specifications, commercial schedules, track and trace, live reefer, and live positions; WAVE BL service for the digital release of original bills of lading; mobile app and security information services; and INTTRA, Infor Nexus, and CargoSmart portals for the management of customers' supply chain data and connection to carriers through one interface.
In addition, the company provides inland container transportation services through truck, rail, and barge; hinterland transport from door to door; and logistics services, as well as operates container terminals.
As of December 31, 2025, its fleet consisted of 301 container vessels with a transport capacity of 2.4 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). The company was formerly known as Hapag-Lloyd Holding AG and changed its name to Hapag-Lloyd in August 2013.
Hapag-Lloyd was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Hamburg, Germany.
Stock analysis
Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG) currently trades at €129.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €108.70, 16% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €135.60 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the €129.20 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €45.91, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €81.53 (bear) to €135.88 (bull), the price of €129.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Hapag Lloyd AG reported revenue of €18.6B in FY2025 versus €22.3B in FY2021, a compound −4.4%/yr. Reported net income was €910M in FY2025, compounding −43.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €22.7B Large · P/E ratio 380.0 · P/S ratio 1.25 · EPS (TTM) €0.3400 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −16%, HLAG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€81.53Fair Value €108.70Bull€135.88
Price €129.20 · Downside -15.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.4% vs 17.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.5% a year for the price and −3.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: The business benefits from recent demand strength supporting earnings yet lacks a durable moat in a cyclical shipping industry with modest returns on capital.
Main risk: MSC's aggressive addition of standalone capacity and market-share focus could increase global supply and force lower freight rates or margins for Hapag-Lloyd's container services.
Bull case: Hapag-Lloyd could leverage its Gemini partnership with Maersk for superior schedule reliability and expand its terminal portfolio to secure more integrated logistics revenue and offset rate pressure.
Bear case: If MSC's capacity surge and regulatory compliance costs both intensify, Hapag-Lloyd might face sustained margin compression and higher debt levels that limit fleet modernization and market position.
Hapag-Lloyd lifted its 2026 earnings outlook again on strong demand and spot rates, yet it faces hundreds of millions in extra costs from Middle East disruptions while the ZIM deal keeps hitting new Israeli regulatory resets. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Does the recent momentum outweigh the persistent geopolitical and approval risks, or do those uncertainties limit sustainable gains?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 222 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−15.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets3.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)2.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hapag Lloyd AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HLAG
Frequently asked questions
Is Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €108.70 versus a price of €129.20, about 16% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HLAG?
Our model-based fair value for Hapag Lloyd AG is €108.70 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €129.20.
What is the quality score of HLAG?
Hapag Lloyd AG has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €108.70 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €81.53, optimistic scenario €135.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hapag Lloyd AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €108.70, about 16% lower versus a price of €129.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €81.53, optimistic scenario €135.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
Hapag Lloyd AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €18.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Hapag Lloyd AG pay a dividend?
Hapag Lloyd AG currently shows a dividend yield of 2.32% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hapag Lloyd AG would have to grow free cash flow by +9.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HLAG use?
Our models discount Hapag Lloyd AG at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.03, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hapag Lloyd AG that is +9.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hapag Lloyd AG grew +7.9 % a year. The price currently implies +9.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hapag Lloyd AG (+9.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.34 %: that much free cash flow Hapag Lloyd AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hapag Lloyd AG it is €108.70 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €129.20. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hapag Lloyd AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, HLAG trades above its calculated fair value: price €129.20, fair value €108.70, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HLAG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€129.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€108.70). For Hapag Lloyd AG the two are €20.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hapag Lloyd AG worth?
The market values Hapag Lloyd AG at about €22.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €129.20; our models calculate a fair value of €108.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HLAG?
Our models span a range for Hapag Lloyd AG: cautious scenario €81.53, base €108.70, optimistic €135.88 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €129.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HLAG?
Hapag Lloyd AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 380.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €108.70 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 17.4. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.3, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 16.5.
What is the PEG ratio of HLAG?
The PEG ratio of Hapag Lloyd AG is 1.19 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hapag Lloyd AG (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 0.4%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HLAG from its 52-week high?
Hapag Lloyd AG trades at €129.20, about 15% below its 52-week high of €152.53 and 21% above the low of €106.92 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €108.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hapag Lloyd AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, Evergreen Marine Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hapag Lloyd AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €129.20, calculated fair value €108.70 (−16%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HLAG calculated?
We run Hapag Lloyd AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €108.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Hapag Lloyd AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €129.20. Our model-based fair value is €108.70, about 16% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hapag Lloyd AG right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Hapag Lloyd AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
The market capitalisation of Hapag Lloyd AG is €22.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hapag Lloyd AG is 1.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
Earnings per share at Hapag Lloyd AG are €0.3400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 380.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
The dividend yield of Hapag Lloyd AG is 2.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
The net margin of Hapag Lloyd AG is 0.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hapag Lloyd AG is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hapag Lloyd AG is 19.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
The operating margin of Hapag Lloyd AG is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
Revenue at Hapag Lloyd AG is growing +8.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG)?
Earnings per share at Hapag Lloyd AG are growing −73.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG) carry?
The net debt of Hapag Lloyd AG is €3.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026