Hershey Co (HSY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hershey Co stock $163, price $177, that is 7.9% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $137.09 – $250.40 · fair‑value band $119.74 – $204.30 · the $177.43 price screens above the $163.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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The Hershey Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of confectionery products and pantry items in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International.
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The company offers chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery products; gum and mint refreshment products, including mints, chewing gums, and bubble gums; protein bars; pantry items, such as baking ingredients, toppings, beverages, and sundae syrups; and snack items comprising spreads, bars, snack bites, mixes, popcorn, and pretzels.
It provides its products primarily under the Hershey's, Reese's, Kisses, Jolly Rancher, Almond Joy, Brookside, barkTHINS, Cadbury, Good & Plenty, Heath, Kit Kat, Payday, Rolo, Twizzlers, Sour Strips, Whoppers, York, Ice Breakers, Breath Savers, Bubble Yum, Lily's, SkinnyPop, Pirates Booty, Dot's Homestyle Pretzels, and ONE Bar brands, as well as under the Pelon Pelo Rico, IO-IO, and Sofit brands.
The company markets and sells its products to wholesale distributors, chain grocery stores, mass merchandisers, chain drug stores, vending companies, wholesale clubs, convenience stores, dollar stores, concessionaires, and department stores.
It exports its products in approximately 65 countries worldwide. The Hershey Company was founded in 1894 and is based in Hershey, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Hershey Co (HSY) currently trades at $177.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $163.44, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $99.03 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $177.43 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $34.70, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $119.74 (bear) to $204.30 (bull), the price of $177.43 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hershey Co reported revenue of $11.7B in FY2025 versus $9.0B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was $883M in FY2025, compounding −12.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $36.2B Large · P/E ratio 19.4 · P/S ratio 2.96 · EPS (TTM) $8.84 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 14.6% · Return on equity 38.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −8%, HSY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$119.74Fair Value $163.44Bull$204.30
Price $177.43 · Downside -7.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.64 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$92.42$150.60$243.1277
Growth DCF$96.41$151.04$234.3176
5Y EBITDA Exit$72.30$118.09$169.1074
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$92.42$150.60$243.1277
Owner Earnings$43.04$75.29$126.5973
5Y Revenue Exit$56.36$89.53$129.9171
5Y EBITDA Exit$72.30$118.09$169.1074
5Y P/E Exit$58.52$93.41$128.0270
10Y Revenue Exit$66.00$99.03$139.3066
10Y EBITDA Exit$78.31$119.24$169.3067
10Y P/E Exit$69.31$101.78$137.8663
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$29.40$71.87$92.9962
PEG = 1.0$12.86$18.38$23.8955
EPV$37.13$47.44$56.7572
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$53.25$103.99$183.7463
DDM Multi-Stage$53.25$82.92$118.3464
Multiples
P/E Multiple$68.10$90.80$113.5061
P/S Multiple$55.13$73.51$91.8856
EV/EBIT$66.52$96.00$125.4864
EV/EBITDA$69.76$100.31$130.8765
EV/Revenue$38.18$63.94$89.7051
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$96.41$151.04$234.3176
Rev-Margin DCF$56.36$90.93$128.7571
Economic Profit
Residual Income$28.67$34.70$51.0674
ROIC Compounder$39.38$55.09$74.0470
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$52.13$74.48$96.8266
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.1M and none bought.
SaleHERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL10% owner67× since Mar 16, 2026: 1,630,000 shares, avg. $182.13$296.9MNov 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJennifer McCalmanVP, Chief Accounting Officer710 shares at $180.78$128,354Aug 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSteven E VoskuilSVP, Chief Financial Officer10× since Nov 18, 2025: 14,450 shares, avg. $191.10$2.8MAug 5, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleCordel Robbin-CokerDirector3× since Jan 5, 2026: 383 shares, avg. $189.19$72,460Jul 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJason ReimanSVP Chief Supply Chain Officer2,000 shares at $226.07$452,140Feb 24, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRohit GroverPresident, International3,500 shares at $226.07$791,245Feb 24, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyNatalie SchechtmanSVP and CHRO200 shares at $186.29$37,258Nov 24, 2025
BuyKirk TannerPresident and CEO, Director2,000 shares at $185.46$370,920Nov 21, 2025
BuyStacy TaffetChief Growth Officer200 shares at $186.19$37,238Nov 21, 2025
Plus 33 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.6% vs 2.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.2% a year for the price and +0.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Brand strength delivers a moderate moat in confectionery while limited innovation and the controlling trust structure weigh on the business.
Main risk: McLane Company accounts for 27 percent of consolidated net sales as the primary distributor to major retailers, so any disruption in that relationship could sharply reduce volumes and pressure margins.
Bull case: Hershey could further diversify sourcing into new regions and use its AI-driven supply chain tools to secure stable cocoa volumes while expanding salty and protein snacks to offset any confectionery pressure.
Bear case: Persistent cocoa shortages or a loss of the McLane relationship could force sustained price hikes or recipe changes that alienate consumers and erode volumes across core confectionery lines.
Hershey keeps lifting reported sales through higher prices while US confection volumes quietly shrink and market share slips in chocolate. Growth now tilts toward salty snacks that deliver lower margins than the core candy business. Will stabilizing volumes in the flagship categories restore the old margin profile, or will the snack shift and cautious consumers lock in a structurally thinner business?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−7.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)38.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)14.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)25.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.01× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)19.4× · Pricier than median
P/B7.82× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.96× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)20.7× · Pricier than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hershey Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HSY
Frequently asked questions
Is Hershey Co (HSY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $163.44 versus a price of $177.43, about 8% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HSY?
Our model-based fair value for Hershey Co is $163.44 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $177.43.
What is the quality score of HSY?
Hershey Co has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hershey Co (HSY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $163.44 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $119.74, optimistic scenario $204.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hershey Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $163.44, about 8% lower versus a price of $177.43 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $119.74, optimistic scenario $204.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hershey Co (HSY)?
Hershey Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Hershey Co pay a dividend?
Hershey Co currently shows a dividend yield of 3.23% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hershey Co (HSY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hershey Co would have to grow free cash flow by +7.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HSY use?
Our models discount Hershey Co at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hershey Co that is +7.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hershey Co (HSY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hershey Co grew +7.5 % a year. The price currently implies +7.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hershey Co (HSY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hershey Co (+7.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hershey Co (HSY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.83 %: that much free cash flow Hershey Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hershey Co (HSY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hershey Co it is $163.44 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $177.43. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hershey Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, HSY trades above its calculated fair value: price $177.43, fair value $163.44, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HSY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($177.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($163.44). For Hershey Co the two are $13.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hershey Co worth?
The market values Hershey Co at about $36.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $177.43; our models calculate a fair value of $163.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HSY?
Our models span a range for Hershey Co: cautious scenario $119.74, base $163.44, optimistic $204.30 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $177.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HSY?
Hershey Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $163.44 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 27.1. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 7.8, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 12.8.
What is the PEG ratio of HSY?
The PEG ratio of Hershey Co is 0.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hershey Co (HSY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hershey Co (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 38.0%, debt of 1.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HSY from its 52-week high?
Hershey Co trades at $177.43, about 24% below its 52-week high of $232.65 and 13% above the low of $157.61 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $163.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hershey Co?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, Cofco Sugar Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hershey Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $177.43, calculated fair value $163.44 (−8%), Quality Score 60/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HSY calculated?
We run Hershey Co through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $163.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Hershey Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hershey Co (HSY)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $177.43. Our model-based fair value is $163.44, about 8% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hershey Co right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Hershey Co (HSY) come from?
Earnings per share at Hershey Co grew +11.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.7 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate +3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hershey Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Hershey Co (HSY)?
The market capitalisation of Hershey Co is $36.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hershey Co (HSY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hershey Co is 2.96 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hershey Co (HSY)?
Earnings per share at Hershey Co are $8.84 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hershey Co (HSY)?
The dividend yield of Hershey Co is 3.2% (payout 64.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hershey Co (HSY)?
The net margin of Hershey Co is 14.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hershey Co (HSY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hershey Co is 38.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hershey Co (HSY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hershey Co is 18.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hershey Co (HSY)?
The operating margin of Hershey Co is 25.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hershey Co (HSY)?
Revenue at Hershey Co is growing +3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hershey Co (HSY)?
Earnings per share at Hershey Co are growing +112% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hershey Co (HSY) carry?
The net debt of Hershey Co is $4.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026