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Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hilltop Holdings Inc stock $37.91, price $36.40, upside +4.1%, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

HH Hilltop Holdings Inc logo Broad data Nov 9, 2026

Hilltop Holdings Inc

HTH · US
Fairly valued, in an uptrend

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Solidly profitable · 11.4% net margin (TTM)
2.2% dividend yield · Low payout
Broad data
Fair value $37.91 · Fairly valued
Quality 51/100
Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Insiders sold $4.0M (6M)
Revenue last quarter 10% below a year ago.
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −5.5 %/yr in USD)
Narrow moat 43/100 · thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$39.79 $22.53 Fair Value $37.91 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $22.53 – $39.79 · fair‑value band $31.03 – $47.38 · the $36.40 price screens below the $37.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Hilltop Holdings Inc. provides business and consumer banking services. The company operates through three segments: Banking, Broker-Dealer, and Mortgage Origination.

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The Banking segment offers savings, checking, interest-bearing checking, and money market accounts; certificates of deposit; lines and letters of credit, home improvement and equity loans, loans for purchasing and carrying securities, term, agricultural and commercial real estate, equipment loans, and other lending products; and mortgage, commercial and industrial loans, and term and construction finance.

It provides treasury management, asset management, check cards, safe deposit boxes, online banking, bill pay, and overdraft privilege services; and estate planning, management and administration, investment portfolio management, employee benefit accounts, and individual retirement accounts services, as well as automated teller machines.

The Broker-Dealer segment offers public finance services that assist public entities in originating, syndicating, and distributing securities of municipalities and political subdivisions; specialized advisory and investment banking services; advice and guidance to arbitrage rebate compliance, portfolio management, and local government investment pool administration; advisory services and products for derivatives and commodities; agricultural insurance; and sells, trades in, and underwrites U.S. government and government agency bonds, corporate bonds, and municipal bonds; mortgage-backed, asset-backed, and commercial mortgage-backed securities and structured products; and provides asset and liability management advisory, clearing, retail, and securities lending services.

The Mortgage Origination segment offers fixed and adjustable rate mortgages, jumbo, new construction, Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Affairs, and United States Department of Agriculture loans. Hilltop Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock analysis

Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH) currently trades at $36.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.91, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.0%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $222.04 per share, and 5 of the 9 models we run sit above the $36.40 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $13.14, and 4 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $31.03 (bear) to $47.38 (bull), the price of $36.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Hilltop Holdings Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was $166M in FY2025, compounding −18.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.1B Mid · P/E ratio 15.2 · P/S ratio 1.71 · EPS (TTM) $2.40 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 11.4% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 4%, HTH screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $31.03 Fair Value $37.91 Bull $47.38
Price $36.40 · Upside +4.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.37 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $31.03 $32.85 $36.58 74
Owner Earnings $121.70 $222.04 $407.06 71
DDM Multi-Stage $7.05 $12.16 $14.88 65
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $121.70 $222.04 $407.06 71
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $19.83 $114.39 $159.11 61
Lynch FV $32.27 $46.10 $59.93 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $7.05 $14.11 $21.45 64
DDM Multi-Stage $7.05 $12.16 $14.88 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $28.43 $37.91 $47.38 63
P/B Multiple $35.04 $46.73 $58.41 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $16.69 $22.36 $33.38 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $31.03 $32.85 $36.58 74

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 25
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 26
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 97
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 78
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 41
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 52
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 100
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $4.0M and none bought.

  • SaleRhodes R BobbittDirector6× since May 13, 2026: 102,555 shares, avg. $38.96$4.0MAug 24, 2026
  • SaleKeith E. BornemannChief Accounting Officer2× since Nov 25, 2025: 4,200 shares, avg. $36.43$153,000May 5, 2026
  • SaleTurtle Creek Revocable Trust10% owner259,771 shares at $37.98$9.9MMar 5, 2026
  • SaleSteve B ThompsonPrimeLending President and CEO9,025 shares at $39.84$359,556Feb 6, 2026
  • SaleMartin Bradley WingesHilltop Securities CEO26,000 shares at $38.46$999,970Feb 3, 2026

Plus 33 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 16/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.5% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10.6% vs 6.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 14%
2025 sits 57% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Conglomerates · 49 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +4.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 6.7% · Below median
Return on assets 1.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 11.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 11.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −10.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.07× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 15.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.97× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.71× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.6× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.61× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)39 · sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 71
PAST (return on equity)27 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)44 · sector 64

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Financial Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Guosen Securities Co 002736 ¥9.03 ¥15.33 +70% vs HTH
ORIX Corporation IX $34.85 $59.05 +69% vs HTH
China Galaxy Securities Co 601881 ¥11.81 ¥12.36 +5% vs HTH
CNPC Capital Company 000617 ¥6.49 ¥6.25 −4% vs HTH
Voya Financial, Inc VOYA $99.01 $60.87 −39% vs HTH
Aditya Birla Capital Limited ABCAPITAL ₹398.80 ₹217.72 −45% vs HTH
Storebrand ASA STB kr 200.00 kr 108.73 −46% vs HTH
Bajaj Finserv Ltd BAJAJFINSV ₹1,865 ₹796.21 −57% vs HTH
Yuanta Financial Holding 2885 69.40 TWD 23.12 TWD −67% vs HTH
Freedom Holding FRHC $178.85 $23.86 −87% vs HTH

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hilltop Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HTH

Frequently asked questions

Is Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $37.91 versus a price of $36.40, about +4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HTH?
Our model-based fair value for Hilltop Holdings Inc is $37.91 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.40.
What is the quality score of HTH?
Hilltop Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $37.91 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $31.03, optimistic scenario $47.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hilltop Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $37.91, about +4% upside versus a price of $36.40 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $31.03, optimistic scenario $47.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
Hilltop Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Hilltop Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Hilltop Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.20% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hilltop Holdings Inc pays a dividend of $0.8 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Nov 6, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2016. The payout ratio is 33.3% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hilltop Holdings Inc it is $37.91 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $36.40. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Hilltop Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, HTH trades below its calculated fair value: price $36.40, fair value $37.91, a gap of about +4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HTH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($37.91). For Hilltop Holdings Inc the two are $1.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hilltop Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Hilltop Holdings Inc at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $36.40; our models calculate a fair value of $37.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HTH?
Our models span a range for Hilltop Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $31.03, base $37.91, optimistic $47.38 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $36.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HTH?
Hilltop Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $37.91 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.0, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 4.6.
What is the PEG ratio of HTH?
The PEG ratio of Hilltop Holdings Inc is 0.61 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hilltop Holdings Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HTH from its 52-week high?
Hilltop Holdings Inc trades at $36.40, about 9% below its 52-week high of $39.79 and 14% above the low of $31.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $37.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hilltop Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value ORIX Corporation, Bajaj Finserv Ltd, Yuanta Financial Holding, China Galaxy Securities Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hilltop Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $36.40, calculated fair value $37.91 (+4%), Quality Score 51/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HTH calculated?
We run Hilltop Holdings Inc through 9 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $37.91 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Hilltop Holdings Inc currently trades 4% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $36.40. Our model-based fair value is $37.91, about +4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hilltop Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH) come from?
Earnings per share at Hilltop Holdings Inc grew +2.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin −4.0 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Hilltop Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
The market capitalisation of Hilltop Holdings Inc is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hilltop Holdings Inc is 1.71 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
Earnings per share at Hilltop Holdings Inc are $2.40 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
The dividend yield of Hilltop Holdings Inc is 2.2% (payout 33.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
The net margin of Hilltop Holdings Inc is 11.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hilltop Holdings Inc is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hilltop Holdings Inc is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
The operating margin of Hilltop Holdings Inc is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
Revenue at Hilltop Holdings Inc is growing −10.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
Earnings per share at Hilltop Holdings Inc are growing −40.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH) generate?
The free cash flow of Hilltop Holdings Inc is −$95.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH) hold?
Hilltop Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, $305M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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