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Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Hilltop Holdings Inc $36.78, price $38.17, upside -3.6%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US4327481010

HH Hilltop Holdings Inc logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Hilltop Holdings Inc

HTH · US

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $36.78 · Fairly valued (−4%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −5.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·1.94% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Insider activity 46/100
!Weak on valuation: 29 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$40.00 $22.66 Fair Value $36.78 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $22.66 – $40.00 · fair‑value band $30.14 – $45.97 · the $38.17 price screens above the $36.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Hilltop Holdings Inc. provides business and consumer banking services. The company operates through three segments: Banking, Broker-Dealer, and Mortgage Origination.

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Hilltop Holdings Inc. provides business and consumer banking services. The company operates through three segments: Banking, Broker-Dealer, and Mortgage Origination. The Banking segment offers savings, checking, interest-bearing checking, and money market accounts; certificates of deposit; lines and letters of credit, home improvement and equity loans, loans for purchasing and carrying securities, term, agricultural and commercial real estate, equipment loans, and other lending products; and mortgage, commercial and industrial loans, and term and construction finance. It provides treasury management, asset management, check cards, safe deposit boxes, online banking, bill pay, and overdraft privilege services; and estate planning, management and administration, investment portfolio management, employee benefit accounts, and individual retirement accounts services, as well as automated teller machines. The Broker-Dealer segment offers public finance services that assist public entities in originating, syndicating, and distributing securities of municipalities and political subdivisions; specialized advisory and investment banking services; advice and guidance to arbitrage rebate compliance, portfolio management, and local government investment pool administration; advisory services and products for derivatives and commodities; agricultural insurance; and sells, trades in, and underwrites U.S. government and government agency bonds, corporate bonds, and municipal bonds; mortgage-backed, asset-backed, and commercial mortgage-backed securities and structured products; and provides asset and liability management advisory, clearing, retail, and securities lending services. The Mortgage Origination segment offers fixed and adjustable rate mortgages, jumbo, new construction, Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Affairs, and United States Department of Agriculture loans. Hilltop Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock analysis

Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH) currently trades at $38.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.78, implying the stock looks roughly 3.8% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $261.19 per share, and 4 of the 9 models we run sit above the $38.17 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $11.73, and 5 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $30.14 (bear) to $45.97 (bull), the price of $38.17 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Hilltop Holdings Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was $166M in FY2025, compounding −18.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.4B · P/E ratio 14.5 · P/S ratio 1.48 · EPS (TTM) $2.63 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 10.2% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −4%, HTH screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $30.14 Fair Value $36.78 Bull $45.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.38 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $30.06 $31.80 $34.59 72
Owner Earnings $128.01 $261.19 $530.50 67
Gordon GGM $6.81 $13.57 $20.56 63
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $128.01 $261.19 $530.50 67
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $19.24 $134.16 $188.28 59
Lynch FV $69.31 $99.02 $128.73 57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $6.81 $13.57 $20.56 63
DDM Multi-Stage $6.81 $11.73 $14.33 63
Multiples
P/E Multiple $27.58 $36.78 $45.97 63
P/B Multiple $36.07 $48.10 $60.12 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $18.52 $24.82 $37.05 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $30.06 $31.80 $34.59 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 26
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 65
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 16/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.5% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−10.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11% vs 6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 14%
2025 sits 57% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Conglomerates · 57 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 17% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.07× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.10× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.89× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.61× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)29 · sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)30 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)39 · sector 54

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Aditya Birla Capital Limited ABCAPITAL ₹402.45 ₹227.77 −43%
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Voya Financial, Inc VOYA $98.04 $72.59 −26%
Guangzhou Yuexiu Capital Holdings 000987 ¥7.46 ¥5.63 −25%

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Hilltop Holdings Inc · Fair Value
$36.78 −4%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hilltop Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HTH

Frequently asked questions

Is Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $36.78 versus a price of $38.17, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HTH?
Our model-based fair value for Hilltop Holdings Inc is $36.78 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $38.17.
What is the quality score of HTH?
Hilltop Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $36.78 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.14, optimistic scenario $45.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hilltop Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $36.78, about −4% upside versus a price of $38.17 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $30.14, optimistic scenario $45.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
Hilltop Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Hilltop Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Hilltop Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.94% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hilltop Holdings Inc it is $36.78 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $38.17. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hilltop Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HTH trades above its calculated fair value: price $38.17, fair value $36.78, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HTH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($38.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($36.78). For Hilltop Holdings Inc the two are $1.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hilltop Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Hilltop Holdings Inc at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $38.17; our models calculate a fair value of $36.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HTH?
Our models span a range for Hilltop Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $30.14, base $36.78, optimistic $45.97 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $38.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HTH?
Hilltop Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $36.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.1, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
What is the PEG ratio of HTH?
The PEG ratio of Hilltop Holdings Inc is 0.61 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hilltop Holdings Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HTH from its 52-week high?
Hilltop Holdings Inc trades at $38.17, about 5% below its 52-week high of $40.00 and 25% above the low of $30.55 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $36.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hilltop Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value ORIX Corporation, Bajaj Finserv Ltd, Yuanta Financial Holding, China Galaxy Securities Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hilltop Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $38.17, calculated fair value $36.78 (−4%), Quality Score 51/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HTH calculated?
We run Hilltop Holdings Inc through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $36.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hilltop Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $38.17. Our model-based fair value is $36.78, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hilltop Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH) come from?
Earnings per share at Hilltop Holdings Inc grew +2.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin −4.0 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Hilltop Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
The market capitalisation of Hilltop Holdings Inc is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hilltop Holdings Inc is 1.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
Earnings per share at Hilltop Holdings Inc are $2.63 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
The dividend yield of Hilltop Holdings Inc is 1.9% (payout 28.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
The net margin of Hilltop Holdings Inc is 10.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hilltop Holdings Inc is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hilltop Holdings Inc is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
The operating margin of Hilltop Holdings Inc is 16.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
Revenue at Hilltop Holdings Inc is growing −3.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)?
Earnings per share at Hilltop Holdings Inc are growing −1.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH) generate?
The free cash flow of Hilltop Holdings Inc is −$95.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH) hold?
Hilltop Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, $305M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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