Hilltop Holdings (HTH) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $2.2B

A solid business, screening 23% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $22.66 – $40.00 · fair‑value band $36.07 – $60.12 · the $39.04 price screens below the $48.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Hilltop Holdings (HTH) currently trades at $39.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.10, implying the stock looks roughly 23.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Hilltop Holdings generated revenue of $1.3B at a net margin of 12.8%. Revenue declined 3.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $305M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $36.07 (bear case) to $60.12 (bull case); at $39.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at 23%, HTH screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($110.98) versus Dividend Discount ($11.73). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Hilltop Holdings Inc. provides business and consumer banking services. The company operates through three segments: Banking, Broker-Dealer, and Mortgage Origination.

Full company description

Hilltop Holdings Inc. provides business and consumer banking services. The company operates through three segments: Banking, Broker-Dealer, and Mortgage Origination. The Banking segment offers savings, checking, interest-bearing checking, and money market accounts; certificates of deposit; lines and letters of credit, home improvement and equity loans, loans for purchasing and carrying securities, term, agricultural and commercial real estate, equipment loans, and other lending products; and mortgage, commercial and industrial loans, and term and construction finance. It provides treasury management, asset management, check cards, safe deposit boxes, online banking, bill pay, and overdraft privilege services; and estate planning, management and administration, investment portfolio management, employee benefit accounts, and individual retirement accounts services, as well as automated teller machines. The Broker-Dealer segment offers public finance services that assist public entities in originating, syndicating, and distributing securities of municipalities and political subdivisions; specialized advisory and investment banking services; advice and guidance to arbitrage rebate compliance, portfolio management, and local government investment pool administration; advisory services and products for derivatives and commodities; agricultural insurance; and sells, trades in, and underwrites U.S. government and government agency bonds, corporate bonds, and municipal bonds; mortgage-backed, asset-backed, and commercial mortgage-backed securities and structured products; and provides asset and liability management advisory, clearing, retail, and securities lending services. The Mortgage Origination segment offers fixed and adjustable rate mortgages, jumbo, new construction, Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Affairs, and United States Department of Agriculture loans. Hilltop Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hilltop Holdings reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was $166M in FY2025, compounding −18.5%/yr from FY2021.

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Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• What Makes Hilltop Holdings (HTH) a New Strong Buy Stock Yahoo Finance · Jul 28, 2026
• HTH Q2 Deep Dive: Loan Growth, Broker-Dealer Strength, and Capital Actions Shape Outlook Yahoo Finance · Jul 27, 2026

Peer Group

Financial Conglomerates · 56 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 42/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.