Hexcel Corporation (HXL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hexcel Corporation stock $30.38, price $80.40, that is 62.2% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $46.00 – $110.28 · fair‑value band $22.77 – $37.97 · the $80.40 price screens above the $30.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Hexcel Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets advanced lightweight composites technology. It operates through two segments, Composite Materials and Engineered Products.
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The company offers carbon fiber, reinforcements, prepregs and other fiber-reinforced matrix materials, honeycomb, resins, engineered core and composite structures for use in commercial aerospace, defense and space, and industrial applications.
The Composite Materials segment manufactures and markets carbon fibers, fabrics, multi-axials, specialty reinforcements, prepregs and other fiber-reinforced matrix materials, structural adhesives, honeycomb, molding compounds, tooling materials, polyurethane systems, and laminates that are used in military aircraft, transportation, recreational products, and other industrial applications.
The Engineered Products segment manufactures and markets aircraft structures and finished aircraft components, including wing to body fairings, wing panels, flight deck panels, door liners, rotorcraft blades, spars, and tip caps; and aircraft structural sub-components and semi-finished components used in rotorcraft blades, engine nacelles, and aircraft surfaces, such as flaps, wings, elevators, and fairings; and RF interference control products for military and aerospace applications.
This segment also provides interference control materials, structural composites, and services; dielectric absorber foams; magnetic absorbers; and thermoplastics for commercial and defense applications.
The company sells its products directly through its marketing managers, product managers, and sales personnel, as well as through independent distributors in the Americas, Europe, the Asia Pacific, India, and Africa.
Hexcel Corporation was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
Stock analysis
Hexcel Corporation (HXL) currently trades at $80.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.38, 62% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $39.64 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $80.40 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.16, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $22.77 (bear) to $37.97 (bull), the price of $80.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hexcel Corporation reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was $109M in FY2025, compounding +61.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $6.8B Mid · P/E ratio 40.6 · P/S ratio 3.43 · EPS (TTM) $1.98 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 7.8% · Return on equity 10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −62%, HXL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$22.77Fair Value $30.38Bull$37.97
Price $80.40 · Downside -62.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.09 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $242,010, on Oct 26, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $2.3M.
BuyNeal J. KeatingDirector3,000 shares at $80.67$242,010Oct 26, 2026
SaleGail E LehmanOfficer13,829 shares at $92.10$1.3MSep 3, 2026
SaleGina FitzsimonsOfficer9,675 shares at $103.14$997,871Aug 14, 2026
SaleAmy S EvansOfficer1,500 shares at $92.80$139,200Feb 27, 2026
Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
≈ +17.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +16.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 29.4% / −5.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 9%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.76 per share, median 2.64 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.2% a year for the price and +7.4% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Hexcel benefits from a multi-year order backlog supporting its commercial aerospace exposure as build rates rise on key wide-body programs, yet shows only moderate competitive positioning without evidence of a durable moat.
Main risk: Fluctuations or delays in production schedules at Airbus and Boeing, which together account for over half of sales, could reduce demand for Hexcel's composite materials and pressure revenues and margins.
Bull case: By maintaining long qualification cycles on additional programs and advancing high-rate manufacturing innovations like rapid-curing prepregs, Hexcel could broaden its customer base and sustain volumes despite variability at major airframers.
Bear case: Prolonged production shortfalls at Airbus or Boeing combined with share gains by Toray or supply disruptions from limited raw material sources could materially reduce Hexcel's order volumes and compress operating margins over several years.
Hexcel holds a multi-year order backlog that supports its commercial aerospace exposure as build rates rise on key wide-body programs. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the backlog deliver steady operating leverage and cash flow, or will normalization in aerospace production rates limit upside?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−62.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.8% · Above median
Return on assets4.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)13.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.79× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)40.6× · Pricier than median
P/B5.43× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.43× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)22.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA19.8× · Pricier than median
PEG0.61× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)40· sector 65
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)60· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)17· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hexcel Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HXL
Frequently asked questions
Is Hexcel Corporation (HXL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $30.38 versus a price of $80.40, about 62% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HXL?
Our model-based fair value for Hexcel Corporation is $30.38 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $80.40.
What is the quality score of HXL?
Hexcel Corporation has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $30.38 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.77, optimistic scenario $37.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hexcel Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $30.38, about 62% lower versus a price of $80.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.77, optimistic scenario $37.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
Hexcel Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Hexcel Corporation pay a dividend?
Hexcel Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 0.87% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hexcel Corporation (HXL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hexcel Corporation pays a dividend of $0.7 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 28.3% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 35.4%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 5.80 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hexcel Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +12.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HXL use?
Our models discount Hexcel Corporation at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hexcel Corporation that is +12.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hexcel Corporation (HXL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hexcel Corporation grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +12.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hexcel Corporation (HXL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hexcel Corporation (+12.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.99 %: that much free cash flow Hexcel Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hexcel Corporation it is $30.38 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $80.40. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hexcel Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, HXL trades above its calculated fair value: price $80.40, fair value $30.38, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HXL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($80.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($30.38). For Hexcel Corporation the two are $50.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hexcel Corporation worth?
The market values Hexcel Corporation at about $6.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $80.40; our models calculate a fair value of $30.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HXL?
Our models span a range for Hexcel Corporation: cautious scenario $22.77, base $30.38, optimistic $37.97 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $80.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HXL?
Hexcel Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $30.38 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 45.7 (reported for FY2025: 57.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 37.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 5.4, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 19.8.
What is the PEG ratio of HXL?
The PEG ratio of Hexcel Corporation is 0.61 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hexcel Corporation (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 10.8%, debt of 0.79 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HXL from its 52-week high?
Hexcel Corporation trades at $80.40, about 27% below its 52-week high of $110.28 and 19% above the low of $67.54 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $30.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hexcel Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hexcel Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $80.40, calculated fair value $30.38 (−62%), Quality Score 65/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HXL calculated?
We run Hexcel Corporation through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $30.38 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Hexcel Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $80.40. Our model-based fair value is $30.38, about 62% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hexcel Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($37.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Hexcel Corporation (HXL) come from?
Earnings per share at Hexcel Corporation grew −5.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.5 %, EBIT margin −5.7 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hexcel Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
The market capitalisation of Hexcel Corporation is $6.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hexcel Corporation is 3.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
Earnings per share at Hexcel Corporation are $1.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 40.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
The dividend yield of Hexcel Corporation is 0.9% (payout 28.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 35.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
The net margin of Hexcel Corporation is 7.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hexcel Corporation is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hexcel Corporation is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
The operating margin of Hexcel Corporation is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
Revenue at Hexcel Corporation is growing +8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hexcel Corporation (HXL)?
Earnings per share at Hexcel Corporation are growing +280% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hexcel Corporation (HXL) carry?
The net debt of Hexcel Corporation is $922M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026