Hexcel Corporation (HXL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $7.5B
Hexcel Corporation
HXL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $30.46 to $26.45 (−13.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +5.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 74% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($36.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($18.49 to $36.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $46.00 – $110.28 · fair‑value band $18.49 – $36.12 · the $103.43 price screens above the $26.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Hexcel Corporation (HXL) currently trades at $103.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.45, implying the stock looks roughly 74.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hexcel Corporation generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of 6.1%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at $922M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.49 (bear case) to $36.12 (bull case); at $103.43, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -74%, HXL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($31.58) versus Earnings-Based ($8.15). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hexcel Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets advanced lightweight composites technology. It operates through two segments, Composite Materials and Engineered Products.
Full company description
Hexcel Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets advanced lightweight composites technology. It operates through two segments, Composite Materials and Engineered Products. The company offers carbon fiber, reinforcements, prepregs and other fiber-reinforced matrix materials, honeycomb, resins, engineered core and composite structures for use in commercial aerospace, defense and space, and industrial applications. The Composite Materials segment manufactures and markets carbon fibers, fabrics, multi-axials, specialty reinforcements, prepregs and other fiber-reinforced matrix materials, structural adhesives, honeycomb, molding compounds, tooling materials, polyurethane systems, and laminates that are used in military aircraft, transportation, recreational products, and other industrial applications. The Engineered Products segment manufactures and markets aircraft structures and finished aircraft components, including wing to body fairings, wing panels, flight deck panels, door liners, rotorcraft blades, spars, and tip caps; and aircraft structural sub-components and semi-finished components used in rotorcraft blades, engine nacelles, and aircraft surfaces, such as flaps, wings, elevators, and fairings; and RF interference control products for military and aerospace applications. This segment also provides interference control materials, structural composites, and services; dielectric absorber foams; magnetic absorbers; and thermoplastics for commercial and defense applications. The company sells its products directly through its marketing managers, product managers, and sales personnel, as well as through independent distributors in the Americas, Europe, the Asia Pacific, India, and Africa. Hexcel Corporation was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hexcel Corporation reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was $109M in FY2025, compounding +61.5%/yr from FY2021.
HXL screens 74% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- HXL Q2 Deep Dive: Commercial Aerospace Drives Growth Amid Margin Expansion and Capacity Ramp
- Hexcel (HXL) Stock May Be 27% Below Fair Value As Composite Qualification Lands
- Hexcel Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Hexcel Corp (HXL) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Sales Growth and Raised Guidance ...
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
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| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.25 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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