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Data-driven stock valuation

MarineMax Inc (HZO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MarineMax Inc stock $11.72, price $52.70, that is 77.8% below the price, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical US

MI MarineMax Inc logo Some data Nov 5, 2026

MarineMax Inc

HZO · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 78% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Quality 44/100
Thin margins · 0.2% net margin (TTM)
Some data
Fair value $11.72 · Strongly overvalued (−77.8%)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.0 %/yr in USD)
Trails peers (3/14)
Narrow moat 20/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$59.07 $17.66 Fair Value $11.72 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $17.66 – $59.07 · fair‑value band $11.72 – $25.38 · the $52.70 price screens above the $11.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

MarineMax, Inc. operates as a recreational boat and yacht retailer and superyacht services company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Retail Operations and Product Manufacturing.

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The company sells new and used recreational boats, including pleasure and fishing boats, mega-yachts, yachts, sport cruisers, motor yachts, e-power yachts, pontoon boats, ski boats, jet boats, and other recreational boats.

It also offers marine parts and accessories comprising marine electronics; dock and anchoring products that include boat fenders, lines, and anchors; boat covers; trailer parts; water sport accessories, which comprise tubes, lines, wakeboards, and skis; engine parts; oils; lubricants; steering and control systems; corrosion control products and service products; high-performance accessories, including propellers and instruments; and a line of boating accessories, such as life jackets, inflatables, and water sports equipment.

In addition, the company provides novelty items, such as shirts, caps, and license plates; marine engines and equipment; maintenance, repair, and slip and storage services; and boat or yacht brokerage services, as well as yacht charters and power catamarans.

Further, it offers new or used boat finance services; arranges insurance coverage, including boat property, disability, undercoating, gel sealant, fabric protection, trailer tire and wheel protection, and casualty insurance coverage; and manufactures and sells sport yachts and yachts.

Additionally, the company operates MarineMax vacations in Tortola and British Virgin Islands. It also markets and sells its products through offsite locations and print catalog. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Oldsmar, Florida.

Stock analysis

MarineMax Inc (HZO) currently trades at $52.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.72, 78% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $23.19 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the $52.70 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $6.69, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $11.72 (bear) to $25.38 (bull), the price of $52.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

MarineMax Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2026 versus $2.3B in FY2022, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.2M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $1.2B Small · P/E ratio 329.4 · P/S ratio 0.55 · EPS (TTM) $0.1600 · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity 0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 6.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 20 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades at its 52-week high and 146% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −78%, HZO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.72 Fair Value $11.72 Bull $25.38
Price $52.70 · Downside -77.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 1 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0171 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF $13.96 $22.79 $33.67 80
Growth DCF $13.91 $21.45 $30.15 78
EPV $5.09 $6.69 $7.97 74
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $13.96 $22.79 $33.67 80
5Y Revenue Exit $12.26 $23.19 $36.93 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $21.14 $39.91 $61.83 73
10Y Revenue Exit $12.29 $21.33 $33.18 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $17.44 $30.96 $48.97 67
Earnings-Based
EPV $5.09 $6.69 $7.97 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT n/a n/a $9.29 61
EV/EBITDA n/a $11.72 $25.38 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.50 $11.39 $17.00 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $13.91 $21.45 $30.15 78
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $5.09 $6.69 $7.97 72

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 34
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 14
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 34
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 97
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 6
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 84
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 100
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 61
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 39/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.7% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.2% (2021) → 2.4% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+65.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +62.0% a year for the price and +2.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.7%
Projected 2031 (sales)+4.2%

HZO screens overvalued: fair value 78% below the price. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 203 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −77.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets −0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 6.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −7.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.38× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 329.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.29× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 0.55× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 100.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 12.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.09× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 51
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 25
PAST (return on equity)2 · sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)81 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 54

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS $140.82 $201.62 +43% vs HZO
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD C$83.20 C$106.00 +27% vs HZO
Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA $644.76 $650.56 +1% vs HZO
Tractor Supply Company TSCO $36.35 $36.33 +0% vs HZO
Best Buy Co BBY $99.63 $94.70 −5% vs HZO
China Tourism Group 601888 ¥54.22 ¥48.19 −11% vs HZO
Five Below, Inc FIVE $240.30 $184.99 −23% vs HZO
Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM $254.06 $164.11 −35% vs HZO
Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY $687.64 $405.93 −41% vs HZO
GameStop Corp GME $25.12 $11.87 −53% vs HZO

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MarineMax Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MarineMax Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HZO

Frequently asked questions

Is MarineMax Inc (HZO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.72 versus a price of $52.70, about 78% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HZO?
Our model-based fair value for MarineMax Inc is $11.72 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $52.70.
What is the quality score of HZO?
MarineMax Inc has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.72 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.72, optimistic scenario $25.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MarineMax Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.72, about 78% lower versus a price of $52.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.72, optimistic scenario $25.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
MarineMax Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MarineMax Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +65.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.0 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HZO use?
Our models discount MarineMax Inc at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MarineMax Inc that is +65.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MarineMax Inc (HZO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MarineMax Inc grew +1.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +65.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MarineMax Inc (HZO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MarineMax Inc (+65.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.99 %: that much free cash flow MarineMax Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MarineMax Inc it is $11.72 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $52.70. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is MarineMax Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, HZO trades above its calculated fair value: price $52.70, fair value $11.72, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HZO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($52.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.72). For MarineMax Inc the two are $40.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MarineMax Inc worth?
The market values MarineMax Inc at about $1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $52.70; our models calculate a fair value of $11.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HZO?
Our models span a range for MarineMax Inc: cautious scenario $11.72, base $11.72, optimistic $25.38 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $52.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HZO?
MarineMax Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 329.4 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.72 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2024), reported earnings: 8.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.3, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 12.2.
What is the PEG ratio of HZO?
The PEG ratio of MarineMax Inc is 1.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
Balance-sheet figures for MarineMax Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 0.5%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HZO from its 52-week high?
MarineMax Inc trades at $52.70, at its 52-week high of $52.76 and 146% above the low of $21.43 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MarineMax Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MarineMax Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $52.70, calculated fair value $11.72 (−78%), Quality Score 44/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HZO calculated?
We run MarineMax Inc through 11 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $11.72 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. MarineMax Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $52.70. Our model-based fair value is $11.72, about 78% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MarineMax Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($25.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($11.72 to $25.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of MarineMax Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
The market capitalisation of MarineMax Inc is $1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MarineMax Inc is 0.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
Earnings per share at MarineMax Inc are $0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 329.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
The net margin of MarineMax Inc is 0.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MarineMax Inc is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MarineMax Inc is 7.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
The operating margin of MarineMax Inc is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
Revenue at MarineMax Inc is growing −7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MarineMax Inc (HZO)?
Earnings per share at MarineMax Inc are growing +100% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MarineMax Inc (HZO) carry?
The net debt of MarineMax Inc is $948M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 79.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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