MarineMax, Inc (HZO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $770M
MarineMax, Inc
HZO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $35.39 to $34.19 (−3.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($16.63 to $54.94). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.66 – $66.48 · fair‑value band $16.63 – $54.94 · the $35.68 price screens above the $34.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
MarineMax, Inc (HZO) currently trades at $35.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.19, implying the stock looks roughly 4.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, MarineMax, Inc generated revenue of $2.2B at a net margin of -2.8%. Revenue declined 16.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.5%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.63 (bear case) to $54.94 (bull case); at $35.68, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -4%, HZO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($74.58) versus Dividend Discount ($1.37). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MarineMax, Inc. operates as a recreational boat and yacht retailer and superyacht services company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Retail Operations and Product Manufacturing.
Full company description
MarineMax, Inc. operates as a recreational boat and yacht retailer and superyacht services company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Retail Operations and Product Manufacturing. The company sells new and used recreational boats, including pleasure and fishing boats, mega-yachts, yachts, sport cruisers, motor yachts, e-power yachts, pontoon boats, ski boats, jet boats, and other recreational boats. It also offers marine parts and accessories comprising marine electronics; dock and anchoring products that include boat fenders, lines, and anchors; boat covers; trailer parts; water sport accessories, which comprise tubes, lines, wakeboards, and skis; engine parts; oils; lubricants; steering and control systems; corrosion control products and service products; high-performance accessories, including propellers and instruments; and a line of boating accessories, such as life jackets, inflatables, and water sports equipment. In addition, the company provides novelty items, such as shirts, caps, and license plates; marine engines and equipment; maintenance, repair, and slip and storage services; and boat or yacht brokerage services, as well as yacht charters and power catamarans. Further, it offers new or used boat finance services; arranges insurance coverage, including boat property, disability, undercoating, gel sealant, fabric protection, trailer tire and wheel protection, and casualty insurance coverage; and manufactures and sells sport yachts and yachts. Additionally, the company operates MarineMax vacations in Tortola and British Virgin Islands. It also markets and sells its products through offsite locations and print catalog. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Oldsmar, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MarineMax, Inc reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound +2.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$31.6M in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- MarineMax (HZO): Ace River Exit Driven by Opportunity Cost, Not Fundamentals
- MarineMax, Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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