Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Jefferson Capital, Inc. stock $33.71, price $19.83, upside +70.0%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
16‑month range $15.30 – $23.74 · fair‑value band $12.50 – $62.38 · the $19.83 price screens below the $33.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America.
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It primarily purchases portfolios of previously charged-off consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value and manage them by working with individuals as they repay their obligations and work toward financial recovery.
The company offers consumer receivables, including credit card, secured and unsecured automotive, utilities, telecom, and other receivables. It also provides debt servicing and other portfolio management services to credit originators for nonperforming loans.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) currently trades at $19.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.71, implying the stock looks roughly 41% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $134.89 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the $19.83 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.80, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.50 (bear) to $62.38 (bull), the price of $19.83 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $613M in FY2025 versus $31.2M in FY2018, a compound +53.0%/yr. Reported net income was $188M in FY2025, compounding +19.4%/yr from FY2018.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B Small · P/E ratio 21.8 · P/S ratio 6.68 · EPS (TTM) $0.9100 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 30.6% · Return on equity 35.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 81 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 70%, JCAP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$12.50Fair Value $33.71Bull$62.38
Price $19.83 · Upside +70.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3687 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Growth DCF$52.98$104.42$185.1172
Owner Earnings$42.71$108.47$229.1968
Gordon GGM$8.44$15.01$20.4466
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings$42.71$108.47$229.1968
5Y P/E Exit$27.46$70.75$127.2264
10Y P/E Exit$38.08$86.05$159.2358
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$22.26$155.22$217.8361
Lynch FV$80.19$114.56$148.9359
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$8.44$15.01$20.4466
DDM Multi-Stage$8.44$13.80$16.0665
Multiples
P/E Multiple$31.91$42.55$53.1963
P/B Multiple$7.53$10.03$12.5455
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$3.58$4.80$7.1754
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$52.98$104.42$185.1172
Rev-Margin DCF$19.69$39.76$78.3566
Economic Profit
Residual Income$17.85$28.03$67.4866
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.3M and none bought.
SalePenelope JoAnn PersonChief Commercial Officer246 shares at $22.04$5,422Aug 25, 2026
SaleMark Joseph ZellmannPresident US Business Lines56,000 shares at $23.75$1.3MAug 17, 2026
SaleDavid M. BurtonOfficer, Director385,000 shares at $20.50$7.9MJan 9, 2026
SaleJCF Associates IV L.P.10% owner11,000,000 shares at $19.63$215.9MJan 9, 2026
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+41.5%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+79.7%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +27.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24.9% vs 9.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 52%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 237% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.5% a year for the price and +3.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (62 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 283 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+70.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)35.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)24.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)61.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.47× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.31× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.71× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)4.1× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JCAP
Frequently asked questions
Is Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.71 versus a price of $19.83, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of JCAP?
Our model-based fair value for Jefferson Capital, Inc. is $33.71 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.83.
What is the quality score of JCAP?
Jefferson Capital, Inc. has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.71 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.50, optimistic scenario $62.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $33.71, about +70% upside versus a price of $19.83 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.50, optimistic scenario $62.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
Jefferson Capital, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $643M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock pay a dividend?
Jefferson Capital, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 2.42% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Jefferson Capital, Inc. pays a dividend of $0.48 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 24, 2026. The payout ratio is 52.7% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 9.71 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jefferson Capital, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -3.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 6 years revenue grew +54.5 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JCAP use?
Our models discount Jefferson Capital, Inc. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jefferson Capital, Inc. that is -3.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) delivered so far?
Over the past 6 years revenue at Jefferson Capital, Inc. grew +54.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -3.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jefferson Capital, Inc. (-3.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.30 %: that much free cash flow Jefferson Capital, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jefferson Capital, Inc. it is $33.71 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $19.83. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, JCAP trades below its calculated fair value: price $19.83, fair value $33.71, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JCAP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.71). For Jefferson Capital, Inc. the two are $13.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Jefferson Capital, Inc. at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $19.83; our models calculate a fair value of $33.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JCAP?
Our models span a range for Jefferson Capital, Inc.: cautious scenario $12.50, base $33.71, optimistic $62.38 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $19.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JCAP?
Jefferson Capital, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.8 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $33.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jefferson Capital, Inc. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 35.0%, debt of 2.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JCAP from its 52-week high?
Jefferson Capital, Inc. trades at $19.83, about 16% below its 52-week high of $23.74 and 29% above the low of $15.35 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $33.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $19.83, calculated fair value $33.71 (+70%), Quality Score 66/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JCAP calculated?
We run Jefferson Capital, Inc. through 13 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $33.71 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Jefferson Capital, Inc. currently trades 41% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $19.83. Our model-based fair value is $33.71, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($12.50 to $62.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Jefferson Capital, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
The market capitalisation of Jefferson Capital, Inc. is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jefferson Capital, Inc. is 6.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
Earnings per share at Jefferson Capital, Inc. are $0.9100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
The dividend yield of Jefferson Capital, Inc. is 2.4% (payout 52.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
The net margin of Jefferson Capital, Inc. is 30.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jefferson Capital, Inc. is 35.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jefferson Capital, Inc. is 9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
The operating margin of Jefferson Capital, Inc. is 61.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
Revenue at Jefferson Capital, Inc. is growing +11.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +139%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)?
Earnings per share at Jefferson Capital, Inc. are growing −96.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) carry?
The net debt of Jefferson Capital, Inc. is $1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026