Jefferson Capital, Inc (JCAP) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $961M

A solid business, screening 87% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($27.24). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• The model range is unusually wide ($27.24 to $134.55). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (13 months)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

13‑month range $15.47 – $22.76 · fair‑value band $27.24 – $134.55 · the $21.22 price screens below the $39.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Jul 26, 2026.

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Analysis

Jefferson Capital, Inc (JCAP) currently trades at $21.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $39.64, implying the stock looks roughly 86.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Jefferson Capital, Inc generated revenue of $625M at a net margin of 25.8%. Revenue grew 11.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 36.8%. Net debt stands at $1.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $27.24 (bear case) to $134.55 (bull case); at $21.22, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at 87%, JCAP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Earnings-Based ($118.71) versus Asset-Based ($5.76). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America.

Full company description

Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America. It primarily purchases portfolios of previously charged-off consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value and manage them by working with individuals as they repay their obligations and work toward financial recovery. The company offers consumer receivables, including credit card, secured and unsecured automotive, utilities, telecom, and other receivables. It also provides debt servicing and other portfolio management services to credit originators for nonperforming loans. Jefferson Capital, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2018 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Jefferson Capital, Inc reported revenue of $613M in FY2025 versus $31.2M in FY2018, a compound +53.0%/yr. Reported net income was $188M in FY2025, compounding +19.4%/yr from FY2018.

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Peer Group

Credit Services · 333 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.