Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc stock $24.43, price $36.79, that is 33.6% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.52 – $36.82 · fair‑value band $11.74 – $40.10 · the $36.79 price screens above the $24.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. owns, manufactures, and distributors beverages and single serve brewing systems in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International.
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It manufactures and distributes branded concentrates, syrup, and finished beverages, as well as sales of owned brands and third-party brands; tea, cocoa, and other products; and offers finished goods relating to K-Cup pods, single serve brewers, specialty coffee, and ready to drink coffee products.
The company offers its products under the Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, Mott's, A&W, Peñafiel, GHOST, Snapple, 7UP, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Clamato, Core Hydration, The Original Donut Shop, Sunkist soda, Squirt, C4 Energy, Hawaiian Punch, Electrolit, Bloom, Bai, Evian, Yoo-Hoo, Vita Coco, Big Red, RC Cola, Crush, McCafé, Tim Hortons, Van Houtte, Celestial Seasonings, Bigelow, Starbucks, Dunkin', Folgers, Peet's, 7up Energy, and Swiss Miss brands, as well as other partner and private label brands.
It markets and sells its products to supermarkets, mass merchandisers, club stores, e-commerce retailers, office superstores, vending machines, fountains, grocery and drug stores, convenience stores, and other small outlets; and directly to consumers through Keurig.com website.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Frisco, Texas.
Stock analysis
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) currently trades at $36.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.43, 34% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $30.98 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $36.79 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $11.02, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.74 (bear) to $40.10 (bull), the price of $36.79 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc reported revenue of $16.6B in FY2025 versus $12.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1B in FY2025, compounding −0.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $50.2B Large · P/E ratio 37.2 · P/S ratio 2.50 · EPS (TTM) $0.9900 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 5.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades at its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −34%, KDP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.74Fair Value $24.43Bull$40.10
Price $36.79 · Downside -33.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0595 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $250,247, on Aug 25, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $1.1M.
SaleMary Beth DeNooyerChief Human Resources Officer24,000 shares at $32.43$778,200Sep 9, 2026
SaleAngela A. StephensSenior VP & Controller2× since Dec 12, 2025: 19,500 shares, avg. $31.07$605,850Sep 3, 2026
BuyAaron E AltDirector7,862 shares at $31.83$250,247Aug 25, 2026
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
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’19
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+10.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.4% vs 6.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 22%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.2% a year for the price and +16.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate brand and distribution elements provide a foundation, while thin signals on durable edges combined with elevated debt relative to equity remain the central weakness.
Main risk: A long-running antitrust case alleging exclusionary contracts and tying of brewers to pods could force changes to the closed K-Cup ecosystem and pressure margins or licensing terms.
Bull case: The planned separation into a focused coffee company could accelerate innovation like the AltaRounds system and allow targeted partnerships that defend the platform against smart-machine alternatives.
Bear case: If the antitrust case imposes remedies or smart machines capture premium occasions the pod ecosystem could lose scale and the separated coffee unit might face sustained margin pressure from rivals and regulation.
KDP is integrating its large JDE Peet’s acquisition while advancing plans to separate into distinct beverage and global coffee companies in early 2027, including a new leader for the coffee unit. It is also rolling out a new brewer system using compostable rounds that reduces reliance on plastic pods. Will the coffee operations perform better once independent or while still linked to the rest of the portfolio?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−33.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets3.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)12.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)75.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)37.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.97× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.50× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow33.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.9× · Pricier than median
PEG1.14× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)20· sector 52
HEALTH (low debt)74· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)50· sector 61
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Keurig Dr Pepper Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KDP
Frequently asked questions
Is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.43 versus a price of $36.79, about 34% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KDP?
Our model-based fair value for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc is $24.43 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.79.
What is the quality score of KDP?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.43 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.74, optimistic scenario $40.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Keurig Dr Pepper Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.43, about 34% lower versus a price of $36.79 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.74, optimistic scenario $40.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $20.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Keurig Dr Pepper Inc pay a dividend?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.50% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +19.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.4 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KDP use?
Our models discount Keurig Dr Pepper Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Keurig Dr Pepper Inc that is +19.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Keurig Dr Pepper Inc grew +7.4 % a year. The price currently implies +19.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (+19.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.00 %: that much free cash flow Keurig Dr Pepper Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Keurig Dr Pepper Inc it is $24.43 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $36.79. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, KDP trades above its calculated fair value: price $36.79, fair value $24.43, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KDP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($24.43). For Keurig Dr Pepper Inc the two are $12.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc worth?
The market values Keurig Dr Pepper Inc at about $50.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $36.79; our models calculate a fair value of $24.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KDP?
Our models span a range for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc: cautious scenario $11.74, base $24.43, optimistic $40.10 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $36.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KDP?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 37.2 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $24.43 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 29.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 2.0, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 12.9.
What is the PEG ratio of KDP?
The PEG ratio of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc is 1.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 5.1%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KDP from its 52-week high?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc trades at $36.79, at its 52-week high of $36.82 and 47% above the low of $24.95 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $24.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Keurig Dr Pepper Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $36.79, calculated fair value $24.43 (−34%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KDP calculated?
We run Keurig Dr Pepper Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $24.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $36.79. Our model-based fair value is $24.43, about 34% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Keurig Dr Pepper Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($11.74 to $40.10). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) come from?
Earnings per share at Keurig Dr Pepper Inc grew +6.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.2 %, EBIT margin +0.5 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
The market capitalisation of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc is $50.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc is 2.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
Earnings per share at Keurig Dr Pepper Inc are $0.9900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
The dividend yield of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc is 2.5% (payout 92.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
The net margin of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc is 7.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
The operating margin of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
Revenue at Keurig Dr Pepper Inc is growing +75.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)?
Earnings per share at Keurig Dr Pepper Inc are growing −90.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) carry?
The net debt of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc is $15.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026