Mueller Industries Inc (MLI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mueller Industries Inc stock $50.63, price $55.20, that is 8.3% below the price, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.44 – $70.03 · fair‑value band $34.88 – $65.26 · the $55.20 price screens above the $50.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Mueller Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells copper, brass, and aluminum products in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Asia and the Middle East, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: Piping Systems, Industrial Metals, and Climate.
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The Piping Systems segment offers copper tubes, fittings, line sets, and pipe nipples; resells steel pipe, brass and plastic plumbing valves, malleable iron fittings, faucets, and plumbing specialties.
This segment sells its products to wholesalers in the plumbing and refrigeration markets, distributors to the manufactured housing and recreational vehicle industries, building material retailers, and air-conditioning original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The Industrial Metals segment offers brass, bronze, and copper alloy rods; brass rod, bar, and shapes; cold-form aluminum and copper products; high-volume machining of aluminum, steel, brass, and cast-iron impacts and castings for automotive applications; brass and aluminum forgings; brass, aluminum, and stainless steel valves; fluid control solutions; and gas train assembles; specialty copper, copper alloy, and aluminum tube to OEMs in the industrial, construction, plumbing, refrigeration, utility, telecommunication, and electrical transmission and distribution markets, as well as heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) markets.
The Climate segment provides valves, protection devices, and brass fittings; and coaxial heat exchangers and twisted tubes to wholesalers and OEMs in the HVAC and refrigeration markets.
This segment also manufactures and distributes high-pressure components and accessories, as well as insulated HVAC flexible duct systems. Mueller Industries, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Collierville, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Mueller Industries Inc (MLI) currently trades at $55.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.63, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $63.86 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the $55.20 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.02, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $34.88 (bear) to $65.26 (bull), the price of $55.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Mueller Industries Inc reported revenue of $4.2B in FY2025 versus $3.8B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $765M in FY2025, compounding +13.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $12.2B Large · P/E ratio 14.2 · P/S ratio 2.44 · EPS (TTM) $3.90 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 17.3% · Return on equity 26.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 31.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 79 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −8%, MLI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$34.88Fair Value $50.63Bull$65.26
Price $55.20 · Downside -8.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.76 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$39.70$57.05$82.4280
Growth DCF$40.22$55.55$76.6379
Owner Earnings$41.21$59.34$85.8576
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$39.70$57.05$82.4280
Owner Earnings$41.21$59.34$85.8576
5Y Revenue Exit$32.75$46.61$63.9873
5Y EBITDA Exit$42.37$64.52$90.1575
5Y P/E Exit$49.17$77.18$106.4471
10Y Revenue Exit$34.34$47.40$64.4067
10Y EBITDA Exit$41.03$59.56$83.9068
10Y P/E Exit$45.28$68.16$96.0364
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$23.53$71.58$94.9865
Lynch FV$15.33$21.90$28.4761
PEG = 1.0$15.33$21.90$28.4757
EPV$32.96$37.22$40.9074
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$4.35$8.72$13.2766
DDM Multi-Stage$4.35$7.02$9.2066
Multiples
P/E Multiple$54.49$72.65$90.8163
P/S Multiple$28.34$37.78$47.2358
P/B Multiple$29.14$38.85$48.5655
EV/EBIT$57.58$74.78$91.9866
EV/EBITDA$48.46$62.62$76.7867
EV/Revenue$29.77$39.98$50.1854
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$5.74$8.69$10.8754
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$40.22$55.55$76.6379
Rev-Margin DCF$32.75$46.86$63.0673
Economic Profit
Residual Income$19.17$24.11$40.4074
ROIC Compounder$34.05$39.75$45.5372
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$44.70$63.86$83.0267
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $29.9M and none bought.
SaleJohn B HansenDirector3× since Feb 9, 2026: 6,444 shares, avg. $71.56$461,148Nov 2, 2026
SaleScott Jay GoldmanDirector4× since Nov 25, 2025: 12,664 shares, avg. $108.26$1.4MAug 27, 2026
SaleJeffrey Andrew MartinEVP, CFO & Treasurer86,209 shares at $67.03$5.8MAug 13, 2026
SaleGregory L. ChristopherChairman of the Board & CEO, Director2× since Apr 27, 2026: 443,266 shares, avg. $84.74$37.6MAug 11, 2026
Plus 15 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.1% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+39.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+37.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.41.0% vs 23.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 21%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.1% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Strong returns and cash generation form the main strength, while limited public signals on moat categories represent the key weakness.
Main risk: Plastic piping such as PEX or aluminum systems could replace copper tubes and fittings in plumbing and HVAC applications and thereby reduce demand for the company's core fabricated metal products.
Bull case: The company could expand its secondary copper refining and domestic capacity while developing higher-value or hybrid products that complement rather than compete with plastic alternatives in data-center and commercial segments.
Bear case: Widespread adoption of PEX and aluminum systems combined with rising low-cost imports could permanently shrink the addressable market for copper fabrication and compress margins across the piping systems segment.
Mueller delivered another quarter of earnings growth on rising volumes from data centers and commercial work, even as residential construction stayed weak. Higher copper prices drove much of the revenue increase but also compressed margins because the company sells fabricated products on a cost-plus basis. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will volume gains and mix improvements keep earnings rising faster than margin pressure erodes them, or will input-cost timing dominate results going forward?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 257 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−8.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets25.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)17.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)19.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)31.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
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Is Mueller Industries Inc (MLI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $50.63 versus a price of $55.20, about 8% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MLI?
Our model-based fair value for Mueller Industries Inc is $50.63 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $55.20.
What is the quality score of MLI?
Mueller Industries Inc has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $50.63 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $34.88, optimistic scenario $65.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mueller Industries Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $50.63, about 8% lower versus a price of $55.20 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $34.88, optimistic scenario $65.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
Mueller Industries Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Mueller Industries Inc pay a dividend?
Mueller Industries Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.18% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mueller Industries Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +4.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MLI use?
Our models discount Mueller Industries Inc at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.09, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mueller Industries Inc that is +4.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mueller Industries Inc (MLI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mueller Industries Inc grew +11.8 % a year. The price currently implies +4.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mueller Industries Inc (+4.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.62 %: that much free cash flow Mueller Industries Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mueller Industries Inc it is $50.63 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $55.20. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mueller Industries Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MLI trades above its calculated fair value: price $55.20, fair value $50.63, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MLI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($55.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($50.63). For Mueller Industries Inc the two are $4.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mueller Industries Inc worth?
The market values Mueller Industries Inc at about $12.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $55.20; our models calculate a fair value of $50.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MLI?
Our models span a range for Mueller Industries Inc: cautious scenario $34.88, base $50.63, optimistic $65.26 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $55.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MLI?
Mueller Industries Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $50.63 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 17.4 (reported for FY2025: 16.0). Other multiples: PEG 3.4, P/B 4.9, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 9.8.
What is the PEG ratio of MLI?
The PEG ratio of Mueller Industries Inc is 3.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mueller Industries Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 26.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MLI from its 52-week high?
Mueller Industries Inc trades at $55.20, about 21% below its 52-week high of $70.03 and 7% above the low of $51.70 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $50.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mueller Industries Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Bharat Forge Limited, China International Marine Containers (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mueller Industries Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $55.20, calculated fair value $50.63 (−8%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MLI calculated?
We run Mueller Industries Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $50.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Mueller Industries Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $55.20. Our model-based fair value is $50.63, about 8% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mueller Industries Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($34.88 to $65.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI) come from?
Earnings per share at Mueller Industries Inc grew +23.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin +13.5 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mueller Industries Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
The market capitalisation of Mueller Industries Inc is $12.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mueller Industries Inc is 2.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
Earnings per share at Mueller Industries Inc are $3.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
The dividend yield of Mueller Industries Inc is 1.2% (payout 18.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 16.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
The net margin of Mueller Industries Inc is 17.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mueller Industries Inc is 26.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mueller Industries Inc is 31.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
The operating margin of Mueller Industries Inc is 19.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
Revenue at Mueller Industries Inc is growing +31.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
Earnings per share at Mueller Industries Inc are growing +6.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Mueller Industries Inc (MLI) hold?
Mueller Industries Inc holds more cash than debt, $1.3B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026