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Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Millrose Properties, Inc. stock $42.34, price $25.92, upside +63.3%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate US

MP Millrose Properties, Inc. logo Broad data Nov 7, 2026

Millrose Properties, Inc.

MRP · US
Undervalued, but in a downtrend

The stock costs 39% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $42.34 · Strongly undervalued
Quality 66/100
Highly profitable · 63.2% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
2.9% dividend yield · Well covered
Ranks above peers (12/13)
Wide moat 69/100
Positive coverage
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +18% vs. a year ago.
Insiders bought $6.7M (6M)
Weak Growth

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Redemption trigger tied to homebuilder merger completion
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$31.06 $17.85 Fair Value $42.34 Feb 2025 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

21‑month range $17.85 – $31.06 · fair‑value band $30.01 – $56.30 · the $25.92 price screens below the $42.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Millrose Properties, Inc. is the premier homesite option platform for residential homebuilders.

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The company specializes in the acquisition and horizontal development of land to provide a predictable, just-in-time supply of finished homesites " the scarcest and mission-critical resource in the homebuilding industry.

Unlike traditional land bankers, Millrose utilizes a proprietary technology platform that provides real-time feedback and data analytics to drive acquisition decisions.

Every transaction in the Millrose portfolio undergoes rigorous independent due diligence to ensure attractive yields and long-term viability.

By enabling an asset-light model, Millrose provides its diverse roster of homebuilder partners with the strategic flexibility to maintain production volumes and optimize balance sheet efficiency across all market environments. Millrose Properties, Inc.is based in Miami, United States.

Stock analysis

Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) currently trades at $25.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.34, implying the stock looks roughly 39% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $352.32 per share, and 10 of the 15 models we run sit above the $25.92 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $23.74, and 5 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $30.01 (bear) to $56.30 (bull), the price of $25.92 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Millrose Properties, Inc. reported revenue of $600M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was $380M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $4.3B Mid · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 5.43 · EPS (TTM) $3.02 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 63.2% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.5% (4-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at 63%, MRP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $30.01 Fair Value $42.34 Bull $56.30
Price $25.92 · Upside +63.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.95 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF $247.92 $358.37 $510.93 68
Growth DCF $252.72 $352.32 $482.83 66
Residual Income $30.01 $31.30 $33.77 66
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $247.92 $358.37 $510.93 68
5Y Revenue Exit $104.73 $123.09 $142.05 62
5Y EBITDA Exit $116.47 $144.41 $173.28 64
10Y Revenue Exit $157.63 $185.42 $214.84 57
10Y EBITDA Exit $165.32 $199.51 $237.27 58
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $16.68 $24.25 $31.80 60
DDM Multi-Stage $16.68 $23.23 $30.31 56
Multiples
P/S Multiple $18.98 $25.31 $31.63 58
P/B Multiple $56.96 $75.94 $94.93 55
EV/EBIT $38.53 $55.87 $73.20 62
EV/EBITDA $28.39 $42.34 $56.30 63
EV/Revenue $5.61 $13.79 $21.96 48
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $18.99 $25.44 $37.97 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $252.72 $352.32 $482.83 66
Economic Profit
Residual Income $30.01 $31.30 $33.77 66

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 37
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 91
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 92
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 58
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 59
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 63
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 30
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 37
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 43
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors bought shares worth $6.7M, most recently on Aug 10, 2026. Buying cluster

  • BuyMatthew B. GorsonDirector3× since Mar 5, 2026: 8,500 shares, avg. $28.05$238,435Aug 10, 2026
  • BuyCarlos A. MigoyaDirector3× since Nov 12, 2025: 2,219 shares, avg. $29.18Aug 7, 2026
  • BuyRachel PresaGeneral Counsel and Secretary1,032 shares at $27.01$27,878May 13, 2026
  • BuyRobert NitkinChief Operating Officer1,840 shares at $26.60$48,944May 12, 2026
  • BuyDarren RichmanOfficer235,000 shares at $27.31$6.4MMay 11, 2026
  • BuyKathleen B. LynchDirector1,860 shares at $31.74$59,036Nov 24, 2025

Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 34/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

Watch MRP, get fair value alerts →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Strong margins and clean balance sheet stand out for this residential REIT, yet it lacks the distinctive moat signals typical of the sector.
Main risk: The redemption trigger attached to part of the notes and linked to completion of a specific homebuilder merger risks disrupting debt terms and refinancing flexibility.
Millrose recently completed a one-billion-dollar notes offering, with part of the debt carrying a redemption trigger tied to completion of a specific homebuilder merger. It has also expanded to nearly twenty partners and shifted more capital outside its original anchor relationship. Our models see it as undervalued. Will this combination of structured debt and broader partnerships reinforce recurring option-fee income or add new execution dependencies?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Residential · 41 stocks

Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +63.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 8.6% · Above median
Return on assets 4.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 63.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 85.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 17.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.9% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Residential median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 8.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.73× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 5.43× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 1.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 8.7× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)89 · sector 9
PAST (return on equity)34 · sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 58
DIVIDEND (yield)58 · sector 77

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Residential stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Sun Communities, Inc SUI $120.30 $167.32 +39% vs MRP
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc MAA $118.93 $121.62 +2% vs MRP
UDR, Inc UDR $36.58 $36.91 +1% vs MRP
Invitation Homes INVH $27.10 $23.71 −13% vs MRP
Independence Realty Trust, Inc IRT $15.00 $12.95 −14% vs MRP
American Homes 4 Rent (AMH or the General Partner) AMH $32.82 $25.88 −21% vs MRP
Essex Property Trust, Inc ESS $272.18 $210.67 −23% vs MRP
Camden Property Trust CPT $99.44 $60.39 −39% vs MRP
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc ELS $62.95 $31.29 −50% vs MRP
Altarea SCA ALTA €74.10 €14.19 −81% vs MRP

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Millrose Properties, Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Millrose Properties, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MRP

Frequently asked questions

Is Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $42.34 versus a price of $25.92, about +63% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MRP?
Our model-based fair value for Millrose Properties, Inc. is $42.34 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.92.
What is the quality score of MRP?
Millrose Properties, Inc. has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $42.34 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.01, optimistic scenario $56.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Millrose Properties, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $42.34, about +63% upside versus a price of $25.92 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $30.01, optimistic scenario $56.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
Millrose Properties, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $792M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Millrose Properties, Inc. pay a dividend?
Millrose Properties, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 2.89% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Millrose Properties, Inc. pays a dividend of $0.75 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 5, 2026. The payout ratio is 24.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 31.75 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Millrose Properties, Inc. it is $42.34 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $25.92. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Millrose Properties, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, MRP trades below its calculated fair value: price $25.92, fair value $42.34, a gap of about +63% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($42.34). For Millrose Properties, Inc. the two are $16.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Millrose Properties, Inc. worth?
The market values Millrose Properties, Inc. at about $4.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $25.92; our models calculate a fair value of $42.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRP?
Our models span a range for Millrose Properties, Inc.: cautious scenario $30.01, base $42.34, optimistic $56.30 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $25.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MRP?
Millrose Properties, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $42.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 5.4, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Millrose Properties, Inc. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 8.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MRP from its 52-week high?
Millrose Properties, Inc. trades at $25.92, about 16% below its 52-week high of $30.99 and 22% above the low of $21.22 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $42.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Millrose Properties, Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Essex Property Trust, Inc, Invitation Homes, Sun Communities, Inc, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Millrose Properties, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $25.92, calculated fair value $42.34 (+63%), Quality Score 66/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRP calculated?
We run Millrose Properties, Inc. through 15 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $42.34 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Millrose Properties, Inc. currently trades 39% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $25.92. Our model-based fair value is $42.34, about +63% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Millrose Properties, Inc. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($30.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($30.01 to $56.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Millrose Properties, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
The market capitalisation of Millrose Properties, Inc. is $4.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Millrose Properties, Inc. is 5.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
Earnings per share at Millrose Properties, Inc. are $3.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
The dividend yield of Millrose Properties, Inc. is 2.9% (payout 24.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
The net margin of Millrose Properties, Inc. is 63.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Millrose Properties, Inc. is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Millrose Properties, Inc. is −1.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
The operating margin of Millrose Properties, Inc. is 85.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
Revenue at Millrose Properties, Inc. is growing +17.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
Earnings per share at Millrose Properties, Inc. are growing +23.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) generate?
The free cash flow of Millrose Properties, Inc. is $3.7B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) carry?
The net debt of Millrose Properties, Inc. is $2.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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