Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Metaplanet Inc. stock $0.48, price $1.47, that is 67.0% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
23‑month range $1.22 – $15.35 · fair‑value band $0.2890 – $0.8755 · the $1.47 price screens above the $0.4845 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Metaplanet Inc. owns and operates a hotel and bitcoin-focused operations in Japan and internationally. It operates through Hotel Business and Bitcoin Related Business segments. The Hotel Business segment provides accommodation and related hotel services.
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The Bitcoin Related Business segment offers bitcoin derivatives. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Minato, Japan.
Stock analysis
Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF) currently trades at $1.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4845, 67% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $1.42 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the $1.47 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.2450, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.2890 (bear) to $0.8755 (bull), the price of $1.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Metaplanet Inc. reported revenue of ¥8.9B in FY2025 versus ¥518M in FY2021, a compound +103.6%/yr. Reported net income was −¥95.0B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.0B Small · P/S ratio 0.19 · EPS (TTM) $−1.90 · Return on equity −105% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 28.2% · Revenue (TTM) ¥11.7B · Revenue growth (YoY) +291%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −67%, MTPLF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$0.2890Fair Value $0.4845Bull$0.8755
Price $1.47 · Downside -67.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$0.5000$0.7900$1.7672
Growth DCF$0.4700$0.9600$1.7972
5Y Revenue Exit$0.1700$0.2200$0.320071
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$0.5000$0.7900$1.7672
5Y Revenue Exit$0.1700$0.2200$0.320071
5Y EBITDA Exit$0.3400$0.5700$1.0370
10Y Revenue Exit$0.2600$0.4100$0.470066
10Y EBITDA Exit$0.3900$0.8000$1.4963
Earnings-Based
EPV$0.2400$0.2800$0.320071
Multiples
EV/EBIT$0.2000$0.3300$0.460064
EV/EBITDA$0.0700$0.1600$0.250063
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$1.06$1.42$2.1154
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$0.4700$0.9600$1.7972
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder$0.2400$0.2800$0.320070
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−177.9% (2020) → 70.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+24.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
The revenue jump in 2026 (+30.5%) comes with 19% more shares (acquisition or merger paid in stock). Per share it is about +9.2%. The comparison above is unreliable in such a year.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.2% a year for the price and +21.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (43 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Distressed restaurant operations with minimal moat suffer severe losses and negative returns, while Bitcoin treasury management provides liquidity flexibility.
Main risk: Ongoing net losses threaten the viability of restaurant operations and any treasury initiatives.
Metaplanet sold ten thousand Bitcoin and bought eleven thousand back in the same quarter to show its treasury can be converted to cash without settling liabilities. It now plans to route ten to fifteen percent of assets into income-generating investments while keeping the rest in Bitcoin. Will this turn the treasury into a platform that earns its own keep, or will holdings still drive results mainly through price changes?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 200 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−67.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−18.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)28.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)291.2% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Metaplanet Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTPLF
Frequently asked questions
Is Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4845 versus a price of $1.47, about 67% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTPLF?
Our model-based fair value for Metaplanet Inc. is $0.4845 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.47.
What is the quality score of MTPLF?
Metaplanet Inc. has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4845 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2890, optimistic scenario $0.8755. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Metaplanet Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4845, about 67% lower versus a price of $1.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2890, optimistic scenario $0.8755. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
Metaplanet Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥11.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Metaplanet Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +25.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +62.5 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTPLF use?
Our models discount Metaplanet Inc. at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Metaplanet Inc. that is +25.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Metaplanet Inc. grew +62.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +25.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Metaplanet Inc. (+25.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.98 %: that much free cash flow Metaplanet Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Metaplanet Inc. it is $0.4845 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $1.47. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Metaplanet Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, MTPLF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.47, fair value $0.4845, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTPLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4845). For Metaplanet Inc. the two are $0.9855 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Metaplanet Inc. worth?
The market values Metaplanet Inc. at about $2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $1.47; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4845 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTPLF?
Our models span a range for Metaplanet Inc.: cautious scenario $0.2890, base $0.4845, optimistic $0.8755 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $1.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Metaplanet Inc. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −104.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTPLF from its 52-week high?
Metaplanet Inc. trades at $1.47, about 63% below its 52-week high of $3.96 and 20% above the low of $1.22 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4845 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Metaplanet Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Metaplanet Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $1.47, calculated fair value $0.4845 (−67%), Quality Score 39/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTPLF calculated?
We run Metaplanet Inc. through 11 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $0.4845 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Metaplanet Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $1.47. Our model-based fair value is $0.4845, about 67% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Metaplanet Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.8755). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($0.2890 to $0.8755). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Metaplanet Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
The market capitalisation of Metaplanet Inc. is $2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Metaplanet Inc. is 0.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
Earnings per share at Metaplanet Inc. are $−1.90. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Metaplanet Inc. is −105% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Metaplanet Inc. is −10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
The operating margin of Metaplanet Inc. is 28.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
Revenue at Metaplanet Inc. is growing +291% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF) carry?
The net debt of Metaplanet Inc. is ¥41.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026