Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Metaplanet Inc. $0.49, price $1.76, upside -72.0%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range $1.22 – $15.35 · fair‑value band $0.2975 – $0.8755 · the $1.76 price screens above the $0.4930 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Metaplanet Inc. owns and operates a hotel and bitcoin-focused operations in Japan and internationally. It operates through Hotel Business and Bitcoin Related Business segments. The Hotel Business segment provides accommodation and related hotel services. The Bitcoin Related Business segment offers bitcoin derivatives.
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Metaplanet Inc. owns and operates a hotel and bitcoin-focused operations in Japan and internationally. It operates through Hotel Business and Bitcoin Related Business segments. The Hotel Business segment provides accommodation and related hotel services. The Bitcoin Related Business segment offers bitcoin derivatives. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Minato, Japan.
Stock analysis
Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF) currently trades at $1.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4930, implying the stock looks roughly 257.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $1.58 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $1.76 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.2460, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.2975 (bear) to $0.8755 (bull), the price of $1.76 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Metaplanet Inc. reported revenue of ¥8.9B in FY2025 versus ¥518M in FY2021, a compound +103.6%/yr. Reported net income was −¥95.0B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.0B · P/S ratio 1.36 · EPS (TTM) $−1.36 · Net margin −13.7% · Return on equity −6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.5% · Operating margin 3.5% · Revenue growth (YoY) −77.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −72%, MTPLF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.0683 to $1.58). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $0.2975Fair Value $0.4930Bull $0.8755
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+738.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+189.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+62.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−177.9% (2020) → 70.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+63.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.6% a year for the price and +60.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (40 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 224 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−72% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−14% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−77% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/S (TTM)1.49× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.3× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 18
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Metaplanet Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTPLF
Frequently asked questions
Is Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4930 versus a price of $1.76, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTPLF?
Our model-based fair value for Metaplanet Inc. is $0.4930 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.76.
What is the quality score of MTPLF?
Metaplanet Inc. has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4930 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2975, optimistic scenario $0.8755. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Metaplanet Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4930, about −72% upside versus a price of $1.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2975, optimistic scenario $0.8755. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Metaplanet Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +31.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +62.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTPLF use?
Our models discount Metaplanet Inc. at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Metaplanet Inc. that is +31.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Metaplanet Inc. grew +62.5 % a year. The price currently implies +31.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Metaplanet Inc. (+31.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.85 %: that much free cash flow Metaplanet Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Metaplanet Inc. it is $0.4930 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.76. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Metaplanet Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MTPLF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.76, fair value $0.4930, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTPLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4930). For Metaplanet Inc. the two are $1.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Metaplanet Inc. worth?
The market values Metaplanet Inc. at about $2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.76; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4930 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTPLF?
Our models span a range for Metaplanet Inc.: cautious scenario $0.2975, base $0.4930, optimistic $0.8755 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Metaplanet Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −6.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTPLF from its 52-week high?
Metaplanet Inc. trades at $1.76, about 59% below its 52-week high of $4.31 and 44% above the low of $1.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4930 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Metaplanet Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Metaplanet Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.76, calculated fair value $0.4930 (−72%), Quality Score 36/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTPLF calculated?
We run Metaplanet Inc. through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4930, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Metaplanet Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1.76. Our model-based fair value is $0.4930, about −72% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Metaplanet Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.8755). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($0.2975 to $0.8755). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Metaplanet Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
The market capitalisation of Metaplanet Inc. is $2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Metaplanet Inc. is 1.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
Earnings per share at Metaplanet Inc. are $−1.36. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
The net margin of Metaplanet Inc. is −13.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Metaplanet Inc. is −6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Metaplanet Inc. is −10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
The operating margin of Metaplanet Inc. is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF)?
Revenue at Metaplanet Inc. is growing −77.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +190%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF) carry?
The net debt of Metaplanet Inc. is ¥41.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026