BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc stock $16.20, price $20.30, that is 20.2% below the price, quality 77 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.01 – $20.93 · fair‑value band $11.13 – $20.25 · the $20.30 price screens above the $16.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc. develops entertainment-related products and services worldwide. It operates in four segments: Digital Business, Toys and Hobby Business, Video and Music Business, and Amusement Business.
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The company offers toys, capsule toys, cards, confectionery and foods, apparel, sundries, plastic models, prizes, stationery, and other products.
It also provides planning, development, manufacturing, and sales of plastic models, toys for the mature fan base, character lottery products, and special amusement prizes; planning, development, production, and sales of character, fancy, schoolchildren's, creative, premium stationery, and other sundries; planning, development, and manufacturing of pachinko and pachislot machines, electronic-related equipment; and planning, design, and website production, event planning, and administration.
In addition, the company offers procurement of amusement prizes and character lottery products for convenience stores; planning, distribution, and sales of entertainment content, such as network content and home video games, PC content; and development, manufacturing, and sales of visual substrates; planning and operation of other new businesses.
Further, it provides the planning and production of animation products; copyrights and rights business; production and agency operations in sports entertainment; planning, production, and sales of indoor-use recreation products; and procurement, sales, importing, and exporting of toys.
Additionally, the company involved in the distribution, customs brokerage, product inspection, product manufacturing support, truck freight, industrial waste collection and transportation, logistics management, warehouse operations, and vehicle maintenance activities.
The company was formerly known as NAMCO BANDAI Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc. in June 2014. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.
Stock analysis
BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY) currently trades at $20.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.20, 20% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $18.07 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $20.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.23, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.13 (bear) to $20.25 (bull), the price of $20.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc reported revenue of ¥1.4T in FY2026 versus ¥889B in FY2022, a compound +12.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥149B in FY2026, compounding +12.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $26.0B Large · P/E ratio 26.4 · P/S ratio 2.75 · EPS (TTM) $0.7700 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 18.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −20%, NCBDY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.13Fair Value $16.20Bull$20.25
Price $20.30 · Downside -20.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4683 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.5% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+21.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.39.7% vs 23.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 14%
2026 sits 50% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.2% a year for the price and +2.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (36 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The company's main strength lies in converting its broad IP portfolio into revenue across games, toys and media with notably high asset turnover, while its main weak point remains the limited evidence of durable competitive advantages.
Main risk: A decline in popularity or licensing issues for major IPs such as Gundam, Dragon Ball or One Piece could reduce revenue across games, toys and media.
Bull case: The company could broaden its IP portfolio through new creations and overseas partnerships while using AI tools to speed up development and expand reach without relying as heavily on existing franchises.
Bear case: If key franchises lose appeal and plastic regulations tighten sharply, revenue from toys and related media could fall while costs rise, limiting the ability to fund new projects or overseas growth.
Bandai Namco turns its broad IP portfolio into revenue through games, toys and media with notably high asset turnover. The Gashapon capsule toy line heads into its 50th year in 2027 while the group accelerates overseas expansion. Will the company extract more lasting value from deepening its existing franchises or from broadening toy and entertainment reach into new regions?
Compare BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 169 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−20.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)21.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)26.4× · Pricier than median
P/B4.77× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.00× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)30.2× · Pricier than median
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Is BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.20 versus a price of $20.30, about 20% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NCBDY?
Our model-based fair value for BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc is $16.20 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.30.
What is the quality score of NCBDY?
BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.20 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.13, optimistic scenario $20.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.20, about 20% lower versus a price of $20.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.13, optimistic scenario $20.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.4T (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.13% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc has a dividend yield of 1.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2019. The payout ratio is 31.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.93 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +10.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.1 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NCBDY use?
Our models discount BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc that is +10.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc grew +14.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +10.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (+10.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.31 %: that much free cash flow BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc it is $16.20 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $20.30. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, NCBDY trades above its calculated fair value: price $20.30, fair value $16.20, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NCBDY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.20). For BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc the two are $4.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc worth?
The market values BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc at about $26.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $20.30; our models calculate a fair value of $16.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NCBDY?
Our models span a range for BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $11.13, base $16.20, optimistic $20.25 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $20.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NCBDY?
BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 5.1, P/B 4.8, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
What is the PEG ratio of NCBDY?
The PEG ratio of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc is 5.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
Balance-sheet figures for BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 18.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NCBDY from its 52-week high?
BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc trades at $20.30, about 3% below its 52-week high of $20.93 and 84% above the low of $11.04 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $20.30, calculated fair value $16.20 (−20%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NCBDY calculated?
We run BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $16.20 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $20.30. Our model-based fair value is $16.20, about 20% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range ($11.13 to $20.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY) come from?
Earnings per share at BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc grew +23.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +17.5 %, EBIT margin +3.1 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
The market capitalisation of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc is $26.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc is 2.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
Earnings per share at BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc are $0.7700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
The dividend yield of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc is 1.1% (payout 29.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
The net margin of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc is 10.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc is 18.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc is 13.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
The operating margin of BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc is 21.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
Revenue at BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc is growing +9.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY)?
Earnings per share at BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc are growing +34.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc (NCBDY) hold?
BANDAI NAMCO Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, ¥423B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026