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National CineMedia Inc (NCMI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of National CineMedia Inc stock $1.04, price $1.58, that is 34.2% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Communication Services US

NC National CineMedia Inc logo Some data Nov 4, 2026

National CineMedia Inc

NCMI · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 34% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Quality 40/100
Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +1.0 %/yr in USD)
5.7% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Insiders sold $1.2M (6M)
Some data
Fair value $1.04 · Overvalued
Loss-making · -3.1% net margin (TTM)
Narrow moat 10/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$34.52 $1.05 Fair Value $1.04 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.05 – $34.52 · fair‑value band $0.9200 – $1.19 · the $1.58 price screens above the $1.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America.

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The company engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies.

It also sells digital advertising, including through NCM Boost, a data, insights and analytics platform that utilizes data; NCM Boost, a audience accelerator digital product; NCM Boomerang, retargeting solution designed to amplify post-theatre engagement; NCM Bullseye, an AI-generated creative to deliver dynamic and hyper-localized messaging; and NCM Blueprint, a real-time renovation permit data to identify homeowners who are actively engaged in remodelling projects.

It offers its services to national and local sales groups. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.

Stock analysis

National CineMedia Inc (NCMI) currently trades at $1.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.04, 34% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $2.29 per share, and 3 of the 11 models we run sit above the $1.58 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.2200, and 8 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $0.9200 (bear) to $1.19 (bull), the price of $1.58 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2023: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2023.

National CineMedia Inc reported revenue of $243M in FY2025 versus $115M in FY2021, a compound +20.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$10.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $148M Micro · P/S ratio 0.61 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0800 · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin −3.1% · Return on equity −2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin −21.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −34%, NCMI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.9200 Fair Value $1.04 Bull $1.19
Price $1.58 · Downside -34.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF $0.9100 $0.9900 $1.07 82
Growth DCF $0.9100 $0.9800 $1.05 80
Owner Earnings $1.30 $1.50 $1.72 78
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $0.9100 $0.9900 $1.07 82
Owner Earnings $1.30 $1.50 $1.72 78
5Y Revenue Exit $0.9200 $1.04 $1.19 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $1.81 $2.69 $3.71 75
10Y Revenue Exit $0.9100 $1.00 $1.12 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $1.35 $1.88 $2.58 69
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $2.86 $3.62 $4.39 67
EV/Revenue $0.8300 $0.9500 $1.06 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.1400 $0.2200 $0.2700 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $0.9100 $0.9800 $1.05 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.9200 $1.04 $1.18 74

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 14
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 15
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 46
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 99
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 7
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 0
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 1
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 43
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.2M and none bought.

  • SaleThomas F. LesinskiChief Executive Officer, Director8× since Dec 29, 2025: 420,557 shares, avg. $3.37$1.4MOct 1, 2026
  • SaleRonnie Y. NgChief Financial Officer8× since Nov 10, 2025: 175,255 shares, avg. $3.27$572,209Oct 1, 2026
  • SaleMaria VG WoodsChief Legal Officer5× since Dec 29, 2025: 50,865 shares, avg. $3.18$161,846Oct 1, 2026

Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2023: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2023.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−67.5% (2020) → −5.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.3% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.3%

NCMI screens overvalued: fair value 34% below the price. Compare with AppLovin Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 170 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −34.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −3.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) −21.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 12.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 5.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.36× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.60× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 52.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.0× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.70× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)64 · sector 15
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 7
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
The Trade Desk, Inc TTD $12.93 $38.79 +200% vs NCMI
Publicis Groupe S.A PUB €102.95 €145.63 +41% vs NCMI
Omnicom Group OMC $86.37 $113.06 +31% vs NCMI
AppLovin Corporation APP $391.22 $430.34 +10% vs NCMI
Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 ¥5.55 ¥6.11 +10% vs NCMI
Magnite, Inc MGNI $27.39 $30.13 +10% vs NCMI
JCDecaux SE DEC €26.66 €20.99 −21% vs NCMI
Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 ¥34.54 ¥11.05 −68% vs NCMI
Leo Group 002131 ¥4.26 ¥1.06 −75% vs NCMI
Stagwell Inc STGW $11.64 $2.62 −77% vs NCMI

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National CineMedia Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NCMI

Frequently asked questions

Is National CineMedia Inc (NCMI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.04 versus a price of $1.58, about 34% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NCMI?
Our model-based fair value for National CineMedia Inc is $1.04 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.58.
What is the quality score of NCMI?
National CineMedia Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.04 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9200, optimistic scenario $1.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National CineMedia Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.04, about 34% lower versus a price of $1.58 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.9200, optimistic scenario $1.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
National CineMedia Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $249M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does National CineMedia Inc pay a dividend?
National CineMedia Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 5.70% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
National CineMedia Inc pays a dividend of $0.09 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.7%. The last ex-dividend date was May 22, 2026. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.33 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, National CineMedia Inc would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.9 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NCMI use?
Our models discount National CineMedia Inc at 14.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.63, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For National CineMedia Inc that is more than 80 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (14.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has National CineMedia Inc (NCMI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at National CineMedia Inc grew +21.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of more than 80 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into National CineMedia Inc (more than 80 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.89 %: that much free cash flow National CineMedia Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National CineMedia Inc it is $1.04 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $1.58. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is National CineMedia Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, NCMI trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.58, fair value $1.04, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NCMI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.04). For National CineMedia Inc the two are $0.5400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National CineMedia Inc worth?
The market values National CineMedia Inc at about $148M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $1.58; our models calculate a fair value of $1.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NCMI?
Our models span a range for National CineMedia Inc: cautious scenario $0.9200, base $1.04, optimistic $1.19 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $1.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NCMI?
The PEG ratio of National CineMedia Inc is 0.70 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
Balance-sheet figures for National CineMedia Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −2.3%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NCMI from its 52-week high?
National CineMedia Inc trades at $1.58, about 63% below its 52-week high of $4.23 and 5% above the low of $1.51 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National CineMedia Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National CineMedia Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $1.58, calculated fair value $1.04 (−34%), Quality Score 40/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NCMI calculated?
We run National CineMedia Inc through 11 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $1.04 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. National CineMedia Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $1.58. Our model-based fair value is $1.04, about 34% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National CineMedia Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Key figures of National CineMedia Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
The market capitalisation of National CineMedia Inc is $148M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National CineMedia Inc is 0.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
Earnings per share at National CineMedia Inc are $−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
The dividend yield of National CineMedia Inc is 5.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
The net margin of National CineMedia Inc is −3.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National CineMedia Inc is −2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National CineMedia Inc is −3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
The operating margin of National CineMedia Inc is −21.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
Revenue at National CineMedia Inc is growing +12.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National CineMedia Inc (NCMI)?
Earnings per share at National CineMedia Inc are growing +20.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does National CineMedia Inc (NCMI) hold?
National CineMedia Inc holds more cash than debt, $52.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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