National CineMedia, Inc (NCMI) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · US · Market cap $319M

Below-average quality, and screening another 71% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.05 – $45.43 · fair‑value band $0.9200 – $1.45 · the $4.03 price screens above the $1.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

National CineMedia, Inc (NCMI) currently trades at $4.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.18, implying the stock looks roughly 70.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, National CineMedia, Inc generated revenue of $242M at a net margin of -3.5%. Revenue declined 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $52.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.9200 (bear case) to $1.45 (bull case); at $4.03, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -1% fair-value upside, at -71%, NCMI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($2.94) versus Growth DCF ($1.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America.

Full company description

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. The company engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies. It also sells digital advertising, including through NCM Boost, a data, insights and analytics platform that utilizes data; NCM Boost, a audience accelerator digital product; NCM Boomerang, retargeting solution designed to amplify post-theatre engagement; NCM Bullseye, an AI-generated creative to deliver dynamic and hyper-localized messaging; and NCM Blueprint, a real-time renovation permit data to identify homeowners who are actively engaged in remodelling projects. It offers its services to national and local sales groups. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

National CineMedia, Inc reported revenue of $243M in FY2025 versus $115M in FY2021, a compound +20.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$10.6M in FY2025.

NCMI screens 71% overvalued. Compare with AppLovin Corporation →

Peer Group

Advertising Agencies · 199 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.