Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nohmi Bosai Ltd stock $28.15, price $28.22, that is 0.3% below the price, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
7‑month range $27.77 – $28.22 · fair‑value band $20.54 – $38.46 · the $28.22 price screens above the $28.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Nohmi Bosai Ltd. engages in the development, marketing, installation, and maintenance of various fire protection systems in Japan. The company operates in Fire Alarm Systems, Fire Extinguishing Systems, Maintenance Services, and Others segment.
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The Fire Alarm Systems segment offers various fire alarm systems and equipment, including automatic fire alarm systems, fire and smoke control systems, and environment monitoring systems, for homes to large-scale facilities.
The Fire Extinguishing Systems segment offers sprinklers systems, foam fire extinguishing systems, and nitrogen gas fire suppression systems for large-scale structures, including office buildings, commercial facilities, industrial plants and factories, and road tunnels.
The Maintenance Services segment provides various maintenance and inspection services related to fire protection equipment, including around-the-clock support services, as well as repair services.
The company is also involved in the installation and management of parking lot driving lane control systems; and offers parking lot maintenance services. Nohmi Bosai Ltd. was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan. Nohmi Bosai Ltd. is a subsidiary of SECOM Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF) currently trades at $28.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.15, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $31.93 per share, and 14 of the 25 models we run sit above the $28.22 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.94, and 11 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $20.54 (bear) to $38.46 (bull), the price of $28.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nohmi Bosai Ltd reported revenue of ¥140B in FY2026 versus ¥106B in FY2023, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥13.6B in FY2026, compounding +24.8%/yr from FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B Small · P/E ratio 23.1 · P/S ratio 2.26 · EPS (TTM) $1.22 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 9.8% · Return on equity 10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2% (4-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 0%, NHMBF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$20.54Fair Value $28.15Bull$38.46
Price $28.22 · Downside -0.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2975 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+29.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Profit margin 2023 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 13%
2026 sits 63% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.1% a year for the price and +4.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 105 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.15 versus the last price from Oct 30, 2026 of $28.22, about 0% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NHMBF?
Our model-based fair value for Nohmi Bosai Ltd is $28.15 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 30, 2026): $28.22.
What is the quality score of NHMBF?
Nohmi Bosai Ltd has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.15 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.54, optimistic scenario $38.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nohmi Bosai Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.15, about 0% lower versus the last price from Oct 30, 2026 of $28.22 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $20.54, optimistic scenario $38.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
Nohmi Bosai Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥144B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Nohmi Bosai Ltd pay a dividend?
Nohmi Bosai Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.60% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Nohmi Bosai Ltd pays a dividend of $0.733 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.6%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. The payout ratio is 50.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.13 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nohmi Bosai Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +5.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NHMBF use?
Our models discount Nohmi Bosai Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nohmi Bosai Ltd that is +5.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Nohmi Bosai Ltd grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +5.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nohmi Bosai Ltd (+5.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.54 %: that much free cash flow Nohmi Bosai Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nohmi Bosai Ltd it is $28.15 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $28.22. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Nohmi Bosai Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, NHMBF trades above its calculated fair value: price $28.22, fair value $28.15, a gap of about −0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NHMBF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.15). For Nohmi Bosai Ltd the two are $0.0710 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nohmi Bosai Ltd worth?
The market values Nohmi Bosai Ltd at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $28.22; our models calculate a fair value of $28.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NHMBF?
Our models span a range for Nohmi Bosai Ltd: cautious scenario $20.54, base $28.15, optimistic $38.46 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $28.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NHMBF?
Nohmi Bosai Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.1 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $28.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 8.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nohmi Bosai Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 10.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Nohmi Bosai Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Allegion plc, ADT Inc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nohmi Bosai Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $28.22, calculated fair value $28.15 (−0%), Quality Score 69/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NHMBF calculated?
We run Nohmi Bosai Ltd through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $28.15 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Nohmi Bosai Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 30, 2026 and stands at $28.22. Our model-based fair value is $28.15, about 0% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nohmi Bosai Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($20.54 to $38.46) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Nohmi Bosai Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The market capitalisation of Nohmi Bosai Ltd is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nohmi Bosai Ltd is 2.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
Earnings per share at Nohmi Bosai Ltd are $1.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The dividend yield of Nohmi Bosai Ltd is 2.6% (payout 60.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The net margin of Nohmi Bosai Ltd is 9.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nohmi Bosai Ltd is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nohmi Bosai Ltd is 8.2% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The operating margin of Nohmi Bosai Ltd is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
Revenue at Nohmi Bosai Ltd is growing +16.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
Earnings per share at Nohmi Bosai Ltd are growing +37.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026