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Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Nohmi Bosai Ltd $24.94, price $23.37, upside +6.7%, quality 74 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · US

NB Nohmi Bosai Ltd logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Nohmi Bosai Ltd

NHMBF · US

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $24.94 · Fairly valued (+7%)
✓Quality 74/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue YoY +12.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/13)
!Moderate moat 58/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 21 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$23.37 $23.37 Fair Value $24.94 Apr 2026 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

5‑month range $23.37 – $23.37 · fair‑value band $18.71 – $31.18 · the $23.37 price screens below the $24.94 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Nohmi Bosai Ltd. engages in the development, marketing, installation, and maintenance of various fire protection systems in Japan. The company operates in Fire Alarm Systems, Fire Extinguishing Systems, Maintenance Services, and Others segment.

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Nohmi Bosai Ltd. engages in the development, marketing, installation, and maintenance of various fire protection systems in Japan. The company operates in Fire Alarm Systems, Fire Extinguishing Systems, Maintenance Services, and Others segment. The Fire Alarm Systems segment offers various fire alarm systems and equipment, including automatic fire alarm systems, fire and smoke control systems, and environment monitoring systems, for homes to large-scale facilities. The Fire Extinguishing Systems segment offers sprinklers systems, foam fire extinguishing systems, and nitrogen gas fire suppression systems for large-scale structures, including office buildings, commercial facilities, industrial plants and factories, and road tunnels. The Maintenance Services segment provides various maintenance and inspection services related to fire protection equipment, including around-the-clock support services, as well as repair services. The company is also involved in the installation and management of parking lot driving lane control systems; and offers parking lot maintenance services. Nohmi Bosai Ltd. was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan. Nohmi Bosai Ltd. is a subsidiary of SECOM Co., Ltd.

Stock analysis

Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF) currently trades at $23.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.94, implying the stock looks roughly 6.3% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $30.22 per share, and 14 of the 23 models we run sit above the $23.37 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.24, and 9 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $18.71 (bear) to $31.18 (bull), the price of $23.37 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Nohmi Bosai Ltd reported revenue of ¥134B in FY2025 versus ¥106B in FY2023, a compound +12.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥11.1B in FY2025, compounding +25.7%/yr from FY2023.

Key figures

Market cap $1.4B · P/E ratio 18.5 · P/S ratio 1.54 · EPS (TTM) $1.26 · Net margin 8.3% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% · Operating margin 22.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 7%, NHMBF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $18.71 Fair Value $24.94 Bull $31.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.26 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $17.99 $27.37 $42.02 72
EPV $15.25 $16.70 $17.90 71
Growth DCF $17.73 $25.86 $37.72 71
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $17.99 $27.37 $42.02 72
5Y Revenue Exit $19.02 $30.31 $45.78 65
5Y EBITDA Exit $20.59 $33.57 $50.02 67
5Y P/E Exit $20.38 $33.15 $47.90 64
10Y Revenue Exit $17.98 $28.02 $43.65 60
10Y EBITDA Exit $19.38 $30.22 $46.94 61
10Y P/E Exit $19.26 $29.93 $45.30 57
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $8.08 $39.37 $54.24 57
Lynch FV $10.56 $15.08 $19.61 55
PEG = 1.0 $10.56 $15.08 $19.61 52
EPV $15.25 $16.70 $17.90 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple $18.71 $24.94 $31.18 63
P/S Multiple $15.14 $20.19 $25.24 58
P/B Multiple $15.14 $20.19 $25.24 55
EV/EBIT $26.04 $33.17 $40.30 66
EV/EBITDA $23.70 $30.05 $36.40 67
EV/Revenue $19.92 $26.46 $33.00 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.89 $9.24 $13.79 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $17.73 $25.86 $37.72 71
Rev-Margin DCF $19.02 $29.97 $44.33 65
Economic Profit
Residual Income $10.97 $11.61 $12.57 64
ROIC Compounder $15.84 $18.97 $23.05 66
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $16.36 $23.37 $30.38 61

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 74/100

Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 65
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 55
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 93
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 96
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.6% a year for the price and +4.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.8%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+6.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.5%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 115 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 4% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.69× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.56× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 8.4× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)42 · sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)21 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)41 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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ADT Inc ADT $6.54 $19.32 +195%
The Brink's Company BCO $107.12 $121.18 +13%
Brady Corporation BRC $83.39 $72.97 −12%
The GEO Group GEO $29.74 $12.89 −57%
Loomis AB LOOMIS kr 568.00 kr 496.43 −13%
CoreCivic, Inc CXW $31.47 $18.76 −40%

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Nohmi Bosai Ltd · Fair Value
$24.94 +6%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nohmi Bosai Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NHMBF

Frequently asked questions

Is Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.94 versus a price of $23.37, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NHMBF?
Our model-based fair value for Nohmi Bosai Ltd is $24.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.37.
What is the quality score of NHMBF?
Nohmi Bosai Ltd has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.71, optimistic scenario $31.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nohmi Bosai Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.94, about +7% upside versus a price of $23.37 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $18.71, optimistic scenario $31.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
Nohmi Bosai Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥140B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nohmi Bosai Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +4.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew +12.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NHMBF use?
Our models discount Nohmi Bosai Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nohmi Bosai Ltd that is +4.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at Nohmi Bosai Ltd grew +12.6 % a year. The price currently implies +4.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nohmi Bosai Ltd (+4.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.30 %: that much free cash flow Nohmi Bosai Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nohmi Bosai Ltd it is $24.94 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $23.37. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nohmi Bosai Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NHMBF trades below its calculated fair value: price $23.37, fair value $24.94, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NHMBF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($24.94). For Nohmi Bosai Ltd the two are $1.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nohmi Bosai Ltd worth?
The market values Nohmi Bosai Ltd at about $1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $23.37; our models calculate a fair value of $24.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NHMBF?
Our models span a range for Nohmi Bosai Ltd: cautious scenario $18.71, base $24.94, optimistic $31.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $23.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NHMBF?
Nohmi Bosai Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $24.94 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nohmi Bosai Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Nohmi Bosai Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nohmi Bosai Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $23.37, calculated fair value $24.94 (+7%), Quality Score 74/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NHMBF calculated?
We run Nohmi Bosai Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $24.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Nohmi Bosai Ltd currently trades 7 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $23.37. Our model-based fair value is $24.94, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nohmi Bosai Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Nohmi Bosai Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The market capitalisation of Nohmi Bosai Ltd is $1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nohmi Bosai Ltd is 1.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
Earnings per share at Nohmi Bosai Ltd are $1.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The net margin of Nohmi Bosai Ltd is 8.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nohmi Bosai Ltd is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nohmi Bosai Ltd is 7.6% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
The operating margin of Nohmi Bosai Ltd is 22.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
Revenue at Nohmi Bosai Ltd is growing +4.2% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nohmi Bosai Ltd (NHMBF)?
Earnings per share at Nohmi Bosai Ltd are growing +37.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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