NiSource Inc (NI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NiSource Inc stock $19.87, price $44.44, that is 55.3% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.26 – $48.75 · fair‑value band $17.81 – $32.01 · the $44.44 price screens above the $19.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations.
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The company provides natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through approximately 37,300 miles of distribution main pipeline and the associated individual customer service lines; and 310 miles of transmission main pipeline in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland.
It also generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 0.5 million customers in various counties in the northern part of Indiana, as well as engages in wholesale electric and transmission transactions.
It owns and operates steam coal generating stations in Wheatfield and Michigan City; combined cycle gas turbine in West Terre Haute; natural gas generating units in Wheatfield; hydro generating plants in Carroll County and White County; wind generating units in White County; and solar generating units in Sullivan County, Gibson County, Jasper County, and White County.
The company was formerly known as NIPSCO Industries, Inc. and changed its name to NiSource Inc. in April 1999. NiSource Inc. was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Merrillville, Indiana.
Stock analysis
NiSource Inc (NI) currently trades at $44.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.87, 55% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $28.58 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $44.44 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $10.13, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $17.81 (bear) to $32.01 (bull), the price of $44.44 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
NiSource Inc reported revenue of $6.6B in FY2025 versus $4.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was $930M in FY2025, compounding +12.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $21.4B Large · P/E ratio 23.6 · P/S ratio 3.11 · EPS (TTM) $1.88 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 13.2% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −55%, NI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$17.81Fair Value $19.87Bull$32.01
Price $44.44 · Downside -55.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.10 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $5.9M and none bought.
SaleWilliam Jefferson Jr.EVP, Chief Op & Safety Officer40,000 shares at $44.56$1.8MOct 30, 2026
SaleShawn AndersonEVP & CFO2× since Feb 13, 2026: 19,000 shares, avg. $45.01$855,125Oct 30, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMelody BirminghamEVP & Grp President, Utilities2× since May 14, 2026: 50,009 shares, avg. $43.61$2.2MAug 14, 2026
SaleMelanie B. BermanEVP Administration & CHRO15,000 shares at $47.68$715,200May 22, 2026
SaleLloyd M YatesDirector and President & CEO, Director19,905 shares at $47.73$950,066May 21, 2026
SaleGunnar GodeSVP Chief Accting&Tax Officer2,175 shares at $46.00$100,050Feb 18, 2026
SaleKimberly S CucciaEVP, GC & Corporate Secretary8,000 shares at $43.13$345,040Nov 25, 2025
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.41/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+6.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.1% vs 6.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 28%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The regulated gas utility gains a modest moat from infrastructure and regional franchise yet remains constrained by regulation together with high leverage and negative free cash flow.
Main risk: Indiana regulators are investigating returns on equity, cost-recovery trackers and affordability which could limit how much NiSource recovers on infrastructure investments including those for data centers.
Bull case: NiSource could leverage its GenCo model and constructive regulatory outcomes to secure more data center contracts while passing benefits to existing customers and expanding the structure to other states.
Bear case: If Indiana regulators tighten returns or delay GenCo approvals, NiSource might face slower infrastructure investment recovery, reduced earnings growth from data centers and higher reliance on equity financing for its capital plans.
NiSource’s Indiana operations stand to benefit from a large data center pipeline, with several gigawatts already contracted. Regulatory reviews of returns and tracker mechanisms, along with storm recovery costs, could limit how much of that growth translates into earnings. Will the company capture most of the upside from new industrial load, or will approvals and cost pressures hold it back?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−55.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.6% · Above median
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)13.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)17.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.61× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)23.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.26× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.11× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.52× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)23· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)34· sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)20· sector 82
DIVIDEND (yield)26· sector 69
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NiSource Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NI
Frequently asked questions
Is NiSource Inc (NI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.87 versus a price of $44.44, about 55% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NI?
Our model-based fair value for NiSource Inc is $19.87 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $44.44.
What is the quality score of NI?
NiSource Inc has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NiSource Inc (NI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.87 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.81, optimistic scenario $32.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NiSource Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.87, about 55% lower versus a price of $44.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $17.81, optimistic scenario $32.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NiSource Inc (NI)?
NiSource Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does NiSource Inc pay a dividend?
NiSource Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.31% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NiSource Inc (NI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NiSource Inc it is $19.87 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $44.44. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NiSource Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, NI trades above its calculated fair value: price $44.44, fair value $19.87, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($44.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.87). For NiSource Inc the two are $24.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NiSource Inc worth?
The market values NiSource Inc at about $21.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $44.44; our models calculate a fair value of $19.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NI?
Our models span a range for NiSource Inc: cautious scenario $17.81, base $19.87, optimistic $32.01 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $44.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NI?
NiSource Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.87 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 20.9 (reported for FY2025: 22.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 19.6. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 2.3, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 12.1.
What is the PEG ratio of NI?
The PEG ratio of NiSource Inc is 2.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NiSource Inc (NI)?
Balance-sheet figures for NiSource Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 1.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NI from its 52-week high?
NiSource Inc trades at $44.44, about 9% below its 52-week high of $48.75 and 14% above the low of $39.00 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NiSource Inc?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Snam S.p.A, Uniper SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NiSource Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $44.44, calculated fair value $19.87 (−55%), Quality Score 43/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NI calculated?
We run NiSource Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. NiSource Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NiSource Inc (NI)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $44.44. Our model-based fair value is $19.87, about 55% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NiSource Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($32.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of NiSource Inc (NI) come from?
Earnings per share at NiSource Inc grew +4.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.7 %, EBIT margin +5.8 %, tax rate +2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NiSource Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of NiSource Inc (NI)?
The market capitalisation of NiSource Inc is $21.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NiSource Inc (NI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NiSource Inc is 3.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NiSource Inc (NI)?
Earnings per share at NiSource Inc are $1.88 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NiSource Inc (NI)?
The dividend yield of NiSource Inc is 1.3% (payout 28.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 30.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NiSource Inc (NI)?
The net margin of NiSource Inc is 13.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NiSource Inc (NI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NiSource Inc is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NiSource Inc (NI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NiSource Inc is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NiSource Inc (NI)?
The operating margin of NiSource Inc is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NiSource Inc (NI)?
Revenue at NiSource Inc is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NiSource Inc (NI)?
Earnings per share at NiSource Inc are growing −58.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does NiSource Inc (NI) generate?
The free cash flow of NiSource Inc is −$420M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does NiSource Inc (NI) carry?
The net debt of NiSource Inc is $16.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 4, 2026