Nichols (NICL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nichols stock £9.62, price £10.95, that is 12.1% below the price, quality 79 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £7.67 – £13.91 · fair‑value band £6.73 – £13.05 · the £10.95 price screens above the £9.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Nichols plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in supply of soft drinks to the retail, wholesale, catering, licensed, and leisure industries in the United Kingdom, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Packaged and Out of Home segments.
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The company offers squash, still drinks, flavored water and carbonates, and energy drinks under the Vimto, Levi Roots, and SLUSH PUPPiE brands; and mixers, juices, cordials, post-mix, and frozen drinks under the ICEE, CocaCola, Pepsi, IRN BRU, Old Jamaica, Ocean Spray, and Sunkist brands.
It distributes its products through grocery, wholesalers, and convenience stores, as well as cinemas chains, theme parks, pubs, and restaurants. The company also exports its products. Nichols plc was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Newton-le-Willows, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Nichols (NICL) currently trades at £10.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £9.62, 12% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £12.86 per share, and 6 of the 25 models we run sit above the £10.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £2.19, and 19 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £6.73 (bear) to £13.05 (bull), the price of £10.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nichols reported revenue of £175M in FY2025 versus £144M in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was £21.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap £403M Small · P/E ratio 16.8 · P/S ratio 2.25 · EPS (TTM) £0.6500 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 13.4% · Return on equity 25.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −12%, NICL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£6.73Fair Value £9.62Bull£13.05
Price £10.95 · Downside -12.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.2231 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.3% vs −0.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.7% a year for the price and +7.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−12.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)25.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets16.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)15.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.25× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.25× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)27.5× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nichols Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NICL
Frequently asked questions
Is Nichols (NICL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £9.62 versus a price of £10.95, about 12% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NICL?
Our model-based fair value for Nichols is £9.62 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £10.95.
What is the quality score of NICL?
Nichols has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nichols (NICL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £9.62 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario £6.73, optimistic scenario £13.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nichols stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £9.62, about 12% lower versus a price of £10.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £6.73, optimistic scenario £13.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nichols (NICL)?
Nichols reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £179M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Nichols pay a dividend?
Nichols currently shows a dividend yield of 3.55% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Nichols (NICL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Nichols pays a dividend of £0.389 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 6, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1993. The payout ratio is 51.8% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 59.8%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.03 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Nichols (NICL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nichols would have to grow free cash flow by +14.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NICL use?
Our models discount Nichols at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nichols that is +14.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nichols (NICL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nichols grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +14.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nichols (NICL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nichols (+14.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nichols (NICL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.64 %: that much free cash flow Nichols produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nichols (NICL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nichols it is £9.62 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of £10.95. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Nichols stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, NICL trades above its calculated fair value: price £10.95, fair value £9.62, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NICL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£10.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£9.62). For Nichols the two are £1.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nichols worth?
The market values Nichols at about £403M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is £10.95; our models calculate a fair value of £9.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NICL?
Our models span a range for Nichols: cautious scenario £6.73, base £9.62, optimistic £13.05 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price £10.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NICL?
Nichols trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £9.62 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 16.3 (reported for FY2025: 18.8). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 23.9. Other multiples: P/B 4.3, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nichols (NICL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nichols (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 25.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NICL from its 52-week high?
Nichols trades at £10.95, about 6% below its 52-week high of £11.70 and 28% above the low of £8.58 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £9.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nichols?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nichols stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price £10.95, calculated fair value £9.62 (−12%), Quality Score 79/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NICL calculated?
We run Nichols through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £9.62 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Nichols itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nichols (NICL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £10.95. Our model-based fair value is £9.62, about 12% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nichols right now?
A fairly wide model range (£6.73 to £13.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Nichols (NICL) come from?
Earnings per share at Nichols grew −0.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.0 %, EBIT margin −4.8 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nichols
How large is the market capitalisation of Nichols (NICL)?
The market capitalisation of Nichols is £403M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nichols (NICL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nichols is 2.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nichols (NICL)?
Earnings per share at Nichols are £0.6500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nichols (NICL)?
The dividend yield of Nichols is 3.6% (payout 51.8%, on adjusted earnings, reported 59.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nichols (NICL)?
The net margin of Nichols is 13.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nichols (NICL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nichols is 25.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nichols (NICL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nichols is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nichols (NICL)?
The operating margin of Nichols is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nichols (NICL)?
Revenue at Nichols is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nichols (NICL)?
Earnings per share at Nichols are growing +29.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Nichols (NICL) hold?
Nichols holds more cash than debt, £51.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026