NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NEPI Rockcastle PLC stock ZAR 117, price ZAR 144, that is 18.8% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Real EstateZA · Based in Netherlands · ISIN IM00BDD7WV31
NRBroad dataNov 1, 2026
NEPI Rockcastle PLC
NRP · JSE
Solid,but expensive
Our calculation puts a fair price 19% below what the stock costs today.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R58.19 – R150.05 · fair‑value band R58.49 – R218.39 · the R143.67 price screens above the R116.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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NEPI Rockcastle N.V. is a public limited company with registration number at the Dutch Chamber of Commerce 87488329.
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The Company's shares are listed on the Main Board of the JSE Limited JSE, Euronext Amsterdam and A2X. NEPI Rockcastle is the premier owner and operator of shopping centres in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The Group benefits from a highly skilled internal management team which combines asset management, development, investment, leasing and financial expertise.
NEPI Rockcastle N.V. was incorporated in 2007 in Netherlands. The registered office of the firm is at Strawinskylaan 563, WTC Zuidas, Tower Ten, 5th Floor, 1077 XX Amsterdam. NEPI Rockcastle N.V. was incorporated in 2007 in Netherlands.
Stock analysis
NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP) currently trades at R143.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R116.70, 18.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R188.64 per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the R143.67 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R86.12, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R58.49 (bear) to R218.39 (bull), the price of R143.67 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
NEPI Rockcastle PLC reported revenue of €951M in FY2025 versus €537M in FY2021, a compound +15.4%/yr. Reported net income was €513M in FY2025, compounding +21.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 102B ZAR Mid · P/E ratio 10.0 · P/S ratio 5.38 · EPS (TTM) R14.41 · Dividend yield 7.4% · Net margin 54.0% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −19%, NRP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR58.49Fair Value R116.70BullR218.39
Price R143.67 · Downside -18.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.20 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.4% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.2% vs 3.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.88% → 62%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.4% a year for the price and −4.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (20 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 113 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−18.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)54.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)61.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)7.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R116.70 versus a price of R143.67, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NRP?
Our model-based fair value for NEPI Rockcastle PLC is R116.70 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R143.67.
What is the quality score of NRP?
NEPI Rockcastle PLC has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R116.70 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario R58.49, optimistic scenario R218.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NEPI Rockcastle PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R116.70, about 19% lower versus a price of R143.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R58.49, optimistic scenario R218.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
NEPI Rockcastle PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €951M (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does NEPI Rockcastle PLC pay a dividend?
NEPI Rockcastle PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 7.37% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NEPI Rockcastle PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +24.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.1 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NRP use?
Our models discount NEPI Rockcastle PLC at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NEPI Rockcastle PLC that is +24.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NEPI Rockcastle PLC grew +12.1 % a year. The price currently implies +24.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NEPI Rockcastle PLC (+24.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.70 %: that much free cash flow NEPI Rockcastle PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NEPI Rockcastle PLC it is R116.70 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of R143.67. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NEPI Rockcastle PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, NRP trades above its calculated fair value: price R143.67, fair value R116.70, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NRP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R143.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R116.70). For NEPI Rockcastle PLC the two are R26.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NEPI Rockcastle PLC worth?
The market values NEPI Rockcastle PLC at about 102B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is R143.67; our models calculate a fair value of R116.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NRP?
Our models span a range for NEPI Rockcastle PLC: cautious scenario R58.49, base R116.70, optimistic R218.39 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price R143.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NRP?
NEPI Rockcastle PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R116.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 5.7, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
Balance-sheet figures for NEPI Rockcastle PLC (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 10.3%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NRP from its 52-week high?
NEPI Rockcastle PLC trades at R143.67, about 4% below its 52-week high of R150.05 and 15% above the low of R124.77 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R116.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NEPI Rockcastle PLC?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Henderson Land Development Company, Swiss Prime Site AG, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NEPI Rockcastle PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price R143.67, calculated fair value R116.70 (−19%), Quality Score 52/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NRP calculated?
We run NEPI Rockcastle PLC through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R116.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. NEPI Rockcastle PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was R143.67. Our model-based fair value is R116.70, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NEPI Rockcastle PLC right now?
The model range is unusually wide (R58.49 to R218.39). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP) come from?
Earnings per share at NEPI Rockcastle PLC grew +3.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.6 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NEPI Rockcastle PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
The market capitalisation of NEPI Rockcastle PLC is 102B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NEPI Rockcastle PLC is 5.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
Earnings per share at NEPI Rockcastle PLC are R14.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
The dividend yield of NEPI Rockcastle PLC is 7.4% (payout 73.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
The net margin of NEPI Rockcastle PLC is 54.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NEPI Rockcastle PLC is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NEPI Rockcastle PLC is 7.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
The operating margin of NEPI Rockcastle PLC is 61.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
Revenue at NEPI Rockcastle PLC is growing +4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP)?
Earnings per share at NEPI Rockcastle PLC are growing +7.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NEPI Rockcastle PLC (NRP) carry?
The net debt of NEPI Rockcastle PLC is €2.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026