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Data-driven stock valuation

Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Origin Bancorp, Inc. stock $30.75, price $53.24, that is 42.2% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

OB Origin Bancorp, Inc. logo Broad data Nov 4, 2026

Origin Bancorp, Inc.

OBK · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 42% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 26.4% net margin (TTM)
1.3% dividend yield · Low payout
Broad data
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +33%, profit +132%.
Quality 56/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +15.8 %/yr in USD)
Moderate moat 56/100
Insiders bought $199,282 (6M)
Fair value $30.75 · Strongly overvalued (−42.2%)
Trails peers (5/14)
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$56.64 $24.72 Fair Value $30.75 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $24.72 – $56.64 · fair‑value band $27.57 – $35.16 · the $53.24 price screens above the $30.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi.

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It provides noninterest and interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, money market accounts, and time deposits; and offers commercial real estate, construction and land development, consumer, residential real estate, commercial and industrial, mortgage warehouse, and residential mortgage loans.

The company offers personal and commercial property, and casualty insurance products; and internet banking and voice response information, mobile applications, cash management, business credit cards, overdraft protection, direct deposit, safe deposit boxes, automatic account transfers, peer-to-peer electronic pay solutions, and personal financial management solutions; and mobile and online banking, treasury management, mortgage origination and servicing facilities, commercial and consumer loans, and insurance services.

The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana.

Stock analysis

Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) currently trades at $53.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.75, 42% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $36.76 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $53.24 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $8.72, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $27.57 (bear) to $35.16 (bull), the price of $53.24 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Origin Bancorp, Inc. reported revenue of $599M in FY2025 versus $290M in FY2021, a compound +19.8%/yr. Reported net income was $75.2M in FY2025, compounding −8.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.7B Small · P/E ratio 16.7 · P/S ratio 4.40 · EPS (TTM) $3.18 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 26.4% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −42%, OBK screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $27.57 Fair Value $30.75 Bull $35.16
Price $53.24 · Downside -42.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.12 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $30.39 $30.75 $32.82 76
Gordon GGM $4.94 $9.18 $12.98 67
DDM Multi-Stage $4.94 $8.25 $9.77 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.94 $9.18 $12.98 67
DDM Multi-Stage $4.94 $8.25 $9.77 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $23.77 $31.69 $39.61 63
P/B Multiple $31.37 $41.83 $52.28 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $17.58 $23.56 $35.16 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $30.39 $30.75 $32.82 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 24
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 98
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 3
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 84
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 82
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 66
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 89
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 79
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $199,282, on Aug 7, 2026.

  • BuyCecil W. JonesDirector3,700 shares at $53.86$199,282Aug 7, 2026
  • SaleMeryl Kennedy FarrDirector2,265 shares at $38.37$86,908Dec 26, 2025

Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.2% vs 15.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

OBK screens overvalued: fair value 42% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −42.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 8.0% · Below median
Return on assets 0.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 26.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 42.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 33.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 16.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.33× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 4.40× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 11.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 14.1× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)32 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)26 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs OBK
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs OBK
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs OBK
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs OBK
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs OBK
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs OBK
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs OBK
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs OBK
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs OBK
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs OBK

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Origin Bancorp, Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Origin Bancorp, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OBK

Frequently asked questions

Is Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $30.75 versus a price of $53.24, about 42% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OBK?
Our model-based fair value for Origin Bancorp, Inc. is $30.75 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $53.24.
What is the quality score of OBK?
Origin Bancorp, Inc. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $30.75 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $27.57, optimistic scenario $35.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Origin Bancorp, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $30.75, about 42% lower versus a price of $53.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $27.57, optimistic scenario $35.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
Origin Bancorp, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $377M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Origin Bancorp, Inc. pay a dividend?
Origin Bancorp, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.31% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Origin Bancorp, Inc. pays a dividend of $0.7 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 14, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2018. The payout ratio is 22.0% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Origin Bancorp, Inc. it is $30.75 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $53.24. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Origin Bancorp, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, OBK trades above its calculated fair value: price $53.24, fair value $30.75, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OBK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($53.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($30.75). For Origin Bancorp, Inc. the two are $22.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Origin Bancorp, Inc. worth?
The market values Origin Bancorp, Inc. at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $53.24; our models calculate a fair value of $30.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OBK?
Our models span a range for Origin Bancorp, Inc.: cautious scenario $27.57, base $30.75, optimistic $35.16 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $53.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OBK?
Origin Bancorp, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $30.75 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2022, FY2023 ex one-offs: 14.1. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 4.4, EV/EBITDA 14.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Origin Bancorp, Inc. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OBK from its 52-week high?
Origin Bancorp, Inc. trades at $53.24, about 6% below its 52-week high of $56.64 and 61% above the low of $33.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $30.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Origin Bancorp, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Origin Bancorp, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $53.24, calculated fair value $30.75 (−42%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OBK calculated?
We run Origin Bancorp, Inc. through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $30.75 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Origin Bancorp, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $53.24. Our model-based fair value is $30.75, about 42% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Origin Bancorp, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($35.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Origin Bancorp, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The market capitalisation of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is 4.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
Earnings per share at Origin Bancorp, Inc. are $3.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The dividend yield of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is 1.3% (payout 22.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The net margin of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is 26.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The operating margin of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is 42.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
Revenue at Origin Bancorp, Inc. is growing +33.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
Earnings per share at Origin Bancorp, Inc. are growing +132% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) generate?
The free cash flow of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is $151M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) hold?
Origin Bancorp, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $37.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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