Origin Bancorp, Inc (OBK) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.5B
Origin Bancorp, Inc
OBK · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +6.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 41% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($39.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.83 – $55.21 · fair‑value band $23.72 – $39.54 · the $53.84 price screens above the $31.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Origin Bancorp, Inc (OBK) currently trades at $53.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.63, implying the stock looks roughly 41.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Origin Bancorp, Inc generated revenue of $350M at a net margin of 23.0%. Revenue grew 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $37.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $23.72 (bear case) to $39.54 (bull case); at $53.84, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -41%, OBK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($31.63) versus Dividend Discount ($7.81). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi.
Full company description
Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. It provides noninterest and interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, money market accounts, and time deposits; and offers commercial real estate, construction and land development, consumer, residential real estate, commercial and industrial, mortgage warehouse, and residential mortgage loans. The company offers personal and commercial property, and casualty insurance products; and internet banking and voice response information, mobile applications, cash management, business credit cards, overdraft protection, direct deposit, safe deposit boxes, automatic account transfers, peer-to-peer electronic pay solutions, and personal financial management solutions; and mobile and online banking, treasury management, mortgage origination and servicing facilities, commercial and consumer loans, and insurance services. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Origin Bancorp, Inc reported revenue of $599M in FY2025 versus $290M in FY2021, a compound +19.8%/yr. Reported net income was $75.2M in FY2025, compounding −8.8%/yr from FY2021.
OBK screens 41% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Origin Bancorp Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Origin Bancorp anticipates high single-digit net interest income growth as it targets at least 1.15% ROA in Q4
- Q2 Bank Earnings Preview: OBK, PNFP, TCBI Poised for a Potential Beat
- Origin Bancorp (OBK) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
Compare Origin Bancorp, Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Financial Services stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Origin Bancorp, Inc (OBK) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of OBK?
What is the quality score of OBK?
What is the revenue of Origin Bancorp, Inc (OBK)?
What is the net profit margin of OBK?
Does Origin Bancorp, Inc pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Origin Bancorp, Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.