Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Origin Bancorp, Inc. $30.74, price $52.81, upside -41.8%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.83 – $55.21 · fair‑value band $25.36 – $35.10 · the $52.81 price screens above the $30.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi.
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Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. It provides noninterest and interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, money market accounts, and time deposits; and offers commercial real estate, construction and land development, consumer, residential real estate, commercial and industrial, mortgage warehouse, and residential mortgage loans. The company offers personal and commercial property, and casualty insurance products; and internet banking and voice response information, mobile applications, cash management, business credit cards, overdraft protection, direct deposit, safe deposit boxes, automatic account transfers, peer-to-peer electronic pay solutions, and personal financial management solutions; and mobile and online banking, treasury management, mortgage origination and servicing facilities, commercial and consumer loans, and insurance services. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana.
Stock analysis
Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) currently trades at $52.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.74, implying the stock looks roughly 71.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $31.63 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $52.81 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.81, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $25.36 (bear) to $35.10 (bull), the price of $52.81 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Origin Bancorp, Inc. reported revenue of $599M in FY2025 versus $290M in FY2021, a compound +19.8%/yr. Reported net income was $75.2M in FY2025, compounding −8.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B · P/E ratio 20.5 · P/S ratio 2.57 · EPS (TTM) $2.58 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 12.6% · Return on equity 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −42%, OBK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $25.36Fair Value $30.74Bull $35.10
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.45 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 15%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 17%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.2% a year for the price and −4.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−42% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)23% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)38% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.32× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.68× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF10.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA14.0× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)47· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)26· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)23· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Origin Bancorp, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OBK
Frequently asked questions
Is Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $30.74 versus a price of $52.81, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OBK?
Our model-based fair value for Origin Bancorp, Inc. is $30.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $52.81.
What is the quality score of OBK?
Origin Bancorp, Inc. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $30.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.36, optimistic scenario $35.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Origin Bancorp, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $30.74, about −42% upside versus a price of $52.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $25.36, optimistic scenario $35.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
Origin Bancorp, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $350M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Origin Bancorp, Inc. pay a dividend?
Origin Bancorp, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.14% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Origin Bancorp, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -0.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OBK use?
Our models discount Origin Bancorp, Inc. at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Origin Bancorp, Inc. that is -0.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Origin Bancorp, Inc. grew +15.8 % a year. The price currently implies -0.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Origin Bancorp, Inc. (-0.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.21 %: that much free cash flow Origin Bancorp, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Origin Bancorp, Inc. it is $30.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $52.81. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Origin Bancorp, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OBK trades above its calculated fair value: price $52.81, fair value $30.74, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OBK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($52.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($30.74). For Origin Bancorp, Inc. the two are $22.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Origin Bancorp, Inc. worth?
The market values Origin Bancorp, Inc. at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $52.81; our models calculate a fair value of $30.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OBK?
Our models span a range for Origin Bancorp, Inc.: cautious scenario $25.36, base $30.74, optimistic $35.10 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $52.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OBK?
Origin Bancorp, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $30.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 14.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Origin Bancorp, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OBK from its 52-week high?
Origin Bancorp, Inc. trades at $52.81, about 4% below its 52-week high of $55.21 and 65% above the low of $31.99 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $30.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Origin Bancorp, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Origin Bancorp, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $52.81, calculated fair value $30.74 (−42%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OBK calculated?
We run Origin Bancorp, Inc. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $30.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Origin Bancorp, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $52.81. Our model-based fair value is $30.74, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Origin Bancorp, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($35.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Origin Bancorp, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The market capitalisation of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is 2.57 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
Earnings per share at Origin Bancorp, Inc. are $2.58 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The dividend yield of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is 1.1% (payout 23.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The net margin of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is 12.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
The operating margin of Origin Bancorp, Inc. is 38.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
Revenue at Origin Bancorp, Inc. is growing +9.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)?
Earnings per share at Origin Bancorp, Inc. are growing +25.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) hold?
Origin Bancorp, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $37.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026