Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. stock $14.94, price $8.20, upside +82.2%, quality 73 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.48 – $17.32 · fair‑value band $11.36 – $18.51 · the $8.20 price screens below the $14.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Optex Systems Holdings, Inc manufactures and sells optical sighting systems and assemblies primarily for the U.S. department of defense, foreign military applications, and commercial and consumer markets in the United States.
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It offers periscopes, such as laser and non-laser protected plastic and glass periscopes, electronic M17 day/thermal periscopes, and vision blocks; and sighting systems, including back up sights, digital day and night sighting systems, M36 thermal periscope, unity mirrors, optical weapon system support and maintenance, commander weapon station sights, sight assembly refurbishments, and driver periscope assembly . The company also provides howitzers comprising M137 telescope, M187 mount, M119 aiming device, and XM10 aiming circles; and applied optics center consisting of laser interference filter, optical assemblies, laser filter units, reticles, day windows, and specialty thin film coatings, as well as other products, such as muzzle reference systems, binoculars, collimators, speedtracker, optical lenses and elements, and windows.
In addition, it offers various periscope configurations, rifle and surveillance sights, and night vision optical assemblies.
The company's products are installed on various types of U.S. military land vehicles, such as the Abrams and Bradley fighting vehicles, light armored and advanced security vehicles, and the Stryker family of vehicles.
The company offers its products directly to the federal government, prime contractors, and foreign governments. Optex Systems Holdings, Inc was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas. Optex Systems Holdings, Inc is a subsidiary of Sileas Corporation.
Stock analysis
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS) currently trades at $8.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.94, implying the stock looks roughly 45% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $38.89 per share, and 19 of the 23 models we run sit above the $8.20 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.87, and 4 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $11.36 (bear) to $18.51 (bull), the price of $8.20 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $41.3M in FY2025 versus $18.2M in FY2021, a compound +22.7%/yr. Reported net income was $5.1M in FY2025, compounding +24.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $57.0M Micro · P/E ratio 14.9 · P/S ratio 1.43 · EPS (TTM) $0.5500 · Net margin 9.8% · Return on equity 15.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 14.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 82%, OPXS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.36Fair Value $14.94Bull$18.51
Price $8.20 · Upside +82.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5500 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleChad Michael GeorgeCEO and President, Director7,035 shares at $13.62$95,817Mar 11, 2026
SaleDanny Robert SchoeningDirector, 10% owner2× since Jan 2, 2026: 110,578 shares, avg. $13.66$1.5MJan 8, 202610b5-1 plan
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.3% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+25.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.8% vs −7.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 19.2%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.7% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (53 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+82.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.3% · Above median
Return on assets17.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)14.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−12.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OPXS
Frequently asked questions
Is Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.94 versus a price of $8.20, about +82% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OPXS?
Our model-based fair value for Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. is $14.94 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.20.
What is the quality score of OPXS?
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.94 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.36, optimistic scenario $18.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.94, about +82% upside versus a price of $8.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.36, optimistic scenario $18.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $39.8M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -3.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OPXS use?
Our models discount Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. that is -3.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -3.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (-3.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.30 %: that much free cash flow Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. it is $14.94 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $8.20. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, OPXS trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.20, fair value $14.94, a gap of about +82% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OPXS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.94). For Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. the two are $6.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. at about $57.0M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $8.20; our models calculate a fair value of $14.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OPXS?
Our models span a range for Optex Systems Holdings, Inc.: cautious scenario $11.36, base $14.94, optimistic $18.51 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $8.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OPXS?
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.94 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 9.8 (reported for FY2025: 11.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 11.5. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 9.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 15.3%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OPXS from its 52-week high?
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. trades at $8.20, about 49% below its 52-week high of $16.09 and 1% above the low of $8.08 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $8.20, calculated fair value $14.94 (+82%), Quality Score 73/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OPXS calculated?
We run Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $14.94 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. currently trades 45% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $8.20. Our model-based fair value is $14.94, about +82% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.36). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (73/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
The market capitalisation of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. is $57.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. is 1.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
Earnings per share at Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. are $0.5500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
The net margin of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. is 9.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. is 15.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. is 12.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
The operating margin of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
Revenue at Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. is growing −12.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
Earnings per share at Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. are growing −17.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS) hold?
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $4.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 9, 2026