Optex Systems Holdings (OPXS) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $90.5M
Optex Systems Holdings
OPXS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $15.53 to $14.94 (−3.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −6.4% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 25% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from $10.35 (bear) to $18.51 (bull), base $14.94. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 75/100 (high quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.40 – $17.32 · fair‑value band $10.35 – $18.51 · the $11.99 price screens below the $14.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Optex Systems Holdings (OPXS) currently trades at $11.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.94, implying the stock looks roughly 24.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Optex Systems Holdings generated revenue of $41.2M at a net margin of 10.0%. Revenue declined 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $4.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.35 (bear case) to $18.51 (bull case); at $11.99, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at 25%, OPXS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($13.89) versus Dividend Discount ($0.4500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc manufactures and sells optical sighting systems and assemblies primarily for the U.S. department of defense, foreign military applications, and commercial and consumer markets in the United States.
Full company description
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc manufactures and sells optical sighting systems and assemblies primarily for the U.S. department of defense, foreign military applications, and commercial and consumer markets in the United States. It offers periscopes, such as laser and non-laser protected plastic and glass periscopes, electronic M17 day/thermal periscopes, and vision blocks; and sighting systems, including back up sights, digital day and night sighting systems, M36 thermal periscope, unity mirrors, optical weapon system support and maintenance, commander weapon station sights, sight assembly refurbishments, and driver periscope assembly . The company also provides howitzers comprising M137 telescope, M187 mount, M119 aiming device, and XM10 aiming circles; and applied optics center consisting of laser interference filter, optical assemblies, laser filter units, reticles, day windows, and specialty thin film coatings, as well as other products, such as muzzle reference systems, binoculars, collimators, speedtracker, optical lenses and elements, and windows. In addition, it offers various periscope configurations, rifle and surveillance sights, and night vision optical assemblies. The company's products are installed on various types of U.S. military land vehicles, such as the Abrams and Bradley fighting vehicles, light armored and advanced security vehicles, and the Stryker family of vehicles. The company offers its products directly to the federal government, prime contractors, and foreign governments. Optex Systems Holdings, Inc was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas. Optex Systems Holdings, Inc is a subsidiary of Sileas Corporation.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Optex Systems Holdings reported revenue of $41.3M in FY2025 versus $18.2M in FY2021, a compound +22.7%/yr. Reported net income was $5.1M in FY2025, compounding +24.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.25 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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