Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. $14.94, price $10.40, upside +43.7%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.40 – $17.32 · fair‑value band $11.36 – $18.51 · the $10.40 price screens below the $14.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Optex Systems Holdings, Inc manufactures and sells optical sighting systems and assemblies primarily for the U.S. department of defense, foreign military applications, and commercial and consumer markets in the United States.
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Optex Systems Holdings, Inc manufactures and sells optical sighting systems and assemblies primarily for the U.S. department of defense, foreign military applications, and commercial and consumer markets in the United States. It offers periscopes, such as laser and non-laser protected plastic and glass periscopes, electronic M17 day/thermal periscopes, and vision blocks; and sighting systems, including back up sights, digital day and night sighting systems, M36 thermal periscope, unity mirrors, optical weapon system support and maintenance, commander weapon station sights, sight assembly refurbishments, and driver periscope assembly . The company also provides howitzers comprising M137 telescope, M187 mount, M119 aiming device, and XM10 aiming circles; and applied optics center consisting of laser interference filter, optical assemblies, laser filter units, reticles, day windows, and specialty thin film coatings, as well as other products, such as muzzle reference systems, binoculars, collimators, speedtracker, optical lenses and elements, and windows. In addition, it offers various periscope configurations, rifle and surveillance sights, and night vision optical assemblies. The company's products are installed on various types of U.S. military land vehicles, such as the Abrams and Bradley fighting vehicles, light armored and advanced security vehicles, and the Stryker family of vehicles. The company offers its products directly to the federal government, prime contractors, and foreign governments. Optex Systems Holdings, Inc was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas. Optex Systems Holdings, Inc is a subsidiary of Sileas Corporation.
Stock analysis
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (OPXS) currently trades at $10.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.94, implying the stock looks roughly 30.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $30.67 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the $10.40 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.34, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.36 (bear) to $18.51 (bull), the price of $10.40 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $41.3M in FY2025 versus $18.2M in FY2021, a compound +22.7%/yr. Reported net income was $5.1M in FY2025, compounding +24.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $90.5M · P/E ratio 17.6 · P/S ratio 2.19 · EPS (TTM) $0.5900 · Net margin 12.5% · Return on equity 17.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.3% · Operating margin 17.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 44%, OPXS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.36Fair Value $14.94Bull $18.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5819 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.3% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+25.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24% vs −7%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 17%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 19.2%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.3% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (50 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 230 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+44% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OPXS
Frequently asked questions
Is Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.94 versus a price of $10.40, about +44% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OPXS?
Our model-based fair value for Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is $14.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.40.
What is the quality score of OPXS?
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.36, optimistic scenario $18.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.94, about +44% upside versus a price of $10.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.36, optimistic scenario $18.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $41.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock would have to grow free cash flow by +1.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OPXS use?
Our models discount Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock that is +1.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies +1.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (+1.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.93 %: that much free cash flow Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock it is $14.94 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $10.40. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OPXS trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.40, fair value $14.94, a gap of about +44% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OPXS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.94). For Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock the two are $4.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock at about $90.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $10.40; our models calculate a fair value of $14.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OPXS?
Our models span a range for Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock: cautious scenario $11.36, base $14.94, optimistic $18.51 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $10.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OPXS?
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.94 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.7, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 13.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 17.2%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OPXS from its 52-week high?
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock trades at $10.40, about 40% below its 52-week high of $17.32 and 6% above the low of $9.84 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $10.40, calculated fair value $14.94 (+44%), Quality Score 75/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OPXS calculated?
We run Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock currently trades 44 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $10.40. Our model-based fair value is $14.94, about +44% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.36). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Key figures of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
How large is the market capitalisation of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
The market capitalisation of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is $90.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is 2.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
Earnings per share at Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock are $0.5900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
The net margin of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is 12.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is 12.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
The operating margin of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
Revenue at Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock is growing −10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS)?
Earnings per share at Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock are growing −26.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS) hold?
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. Common Stock holds more cash than debt, $4.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026