Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. stock $12.71, price $15.81, upside -19.6%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.34 – $17.92 · fair‑value band $8.09 – $17.34 · the $15.81 price screens above the $12.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of steel sections, bars, steel billets and processed steel products for the construction, civil engineering, shipbuilding, steel towers, and industrial machinery manufacturing applications in Japan.
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It offers equal and unequal angles, channels, I-beams, round, and deformed bars, mechanical joints for reinforcing bars, rails, elevator guide rails, colored angles and channels, deformed and round joints, flat and square bars, billets, and other semifinished steel products.
The company was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan. Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Nippon Steel Corporation.
Stock analysis
Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF) currently trades at $15.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.71, 19.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $8.09 (bear) to $17.34 (bull), the price of $15.81 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. reported revenue of ¥95.7B in FY2026 versus ¥104B in FY2022, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was −¥21.2B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $473M Small · EPS (TTM) $−4.21 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin −22.1% · Return on equity −15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% · Operating margin −0.9% · Revenue (TTM) ¥92.4B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 14 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −20%, OSKXF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.09Fair Value $12.71Bull$17.34
Price $15.81 · Upside -19.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.16/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.8% (2021) → −0.4% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 408 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−19.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−13.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−21.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−0.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−10.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
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Is Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.71 versus a price of $15.81, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OSKXF?
Our model-based fair value for Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. is $12.71 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.81.
What is the quality score of OSKXF?
Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.71 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.09, optimistic scenario $17.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.71, about −20% upside versus a price of $15.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.09, optimistic scenario $17.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF)?
Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥92.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.00% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. it is $12.71 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of $15.81. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, OSKXF trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.81, fair value $12.71, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OSKXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.71). For Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. the two are $3.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. at about $473M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is $15.81; our models calculate a fair value of $12.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OSKXF?
Our models span a range for Osaka Steel Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario $8.09, base $12.71, optimistic $17.34 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price $15.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity −15.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OSKXF from its 52-week high?
Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. trades at $15.81, about 12% below its 52-week high of $17.92 and 55% above the low of $10.20 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Osaka Steel Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price $15.81, calculated fair value $12.71 (−20%), Quality Score 44/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OSKXF calculated?
We run Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $15.81. Our model-based fair value is $12.71, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. right now?
Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($8.09 to $17.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF) come from?
Earnings per share at Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. grew −8.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.8 %, EBIT margin −9.7 %, tax rate −3.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF)?
The market capitalisation of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. is $473M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF)?
Earnings per share at Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. are $−4.21. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF)?
The dividend yield of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. is 1.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF)?
The net margin of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. is −22.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. is −15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF)?
The operating margin of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. is −0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF)?
Revenue at Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. is growing −10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF)?
Earnings per share at Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. are growing −51.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF) generate?
The free cash flow of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. is −¥1.9B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. (OSKXF) carry?
The net debt of Osaka Steel Co., Ltd. is ¥13.6B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 2, 2026