Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pan African Resources PLC stock £0.93, price £1.16, that is 19.3% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.1099 – £1.83 · fair‑value band £0.5802 – £1.22 · the £1.16 price screens above the £0.9342 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Pan African Resources PLC engages in the mining, extraction, production, and sale of gold in South Africa.
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Its flagship projects include the Barberton Mines that consists of three underground mines, including Fairview, Sheba, and Consort located in the Barberton Greenstone Belt; and Elikhulu tailings retreatment plant in Southern Africa.
Pan African Resources PLC is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) currently trades at £1.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.9342, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £3.56 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the £1.16 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £0.2500, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £0.5802 (bear) to £1.22 (bull), the price of £1.16 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Pan African Resources PLC reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2026 versus $376M in FY2022, a compound +32.5%/yr. Reported net income was $358M in FY2026, compounding +47.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £2.3B Mid · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 2.75 · EPS (TTM) £0.1300 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 30.9% · Return on equity 45.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 23.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 88 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −19%, PAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£0.5802Fair Value £0.9342Bull£1.22
Price £1.16 · Downside -19.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0388 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF£2.29£3.81£7.8776
Growth DCF£2.19£4.16£7.6875
EPV£1.48£1.70£1.9074
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF£2.29£3.81£7.8776
Owner Earnings£1.53£3.25£6.6471
5Y Revenue Exit£1.03£1.57£2.4771
5Y EBITDA Exit£1.97£3.64£6.4272
5Y P/E Exit£1.82£3.50£5.6069
10Y Revenue Exit£1.40£2.20£3.0967
10Y EBITDA Exit£2.06£3.89£7.1065
10Y P/E Exit£1.95£3.62£6.3561
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd£0.8800£5.91£8.2863
Lynch FV£1.73£2.47£3.2261
PEG = 1.0£1.73£2.47£3.2257
EPV£1.48£1.70£1.9074
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM£0.1800£0.3600£0.540067
DDM Multi-Stage£0.1800£0.3100£0.380067
Multiples
P/E Multiple£1.65£2.19£2.7463
P/S Multiple£0.4700£0.6300£0.780058
P/B Multiple£0.0200£0.0300£0.040054
EV/EBIT£2.39£3.18£3.9766
EV/EBITDA£1.89£2.51£3.1367
EV/Revenue£0.4600£0.6400£0.830054
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)£0.1800£0.2500£0.370054
Growth DCF
Growth DCF£2.19£4.16£7.6875
Rev-Margin DCF£1.03£1.64£2.5471
Economic Profit
Residual Income£0.7900£1.29£3.3567
ROIC Compounder£1.71£2.26£2.9672
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E£2.20£3.14£4.0967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+114.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.5% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−23.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−25.6% vs −7.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 54%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.0% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Record production and a shift to net cash strengthen operations, while a weak moat and rising costs threaten margin sustainability.
Main risk: Rising all-in sustaining costs together with higher spending on expansion projects risk eroding margins despite recent production gains.
Pan African delivered record production and shifted to a strong net cash position after repaying debt, yet the share price has pulled back sharply amid profit-taking following the gold-driven rally. Rising all-in sustaining costs and guidance for higher spending on expansion projects now test whether operational gains can keep margins intact. Will the new Australian assets and tailings projects deliver enough volume growth to offset these pressures, or will costs erode the recent gains?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 202 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−19.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)45.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets22.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)30.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)43.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)90.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.9342 versus a price of £1.16, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PAF?
Our model-based fair value for Pan African Resources PLC is £0.9342 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £1.16.
What is the quality score of PAF?
Pan African Resources PLC has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.9342 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.5802, optimistic scenario £1.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pan African Resources PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.9342, about 19% lower versus a price of £1.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £0.5802, optimistic scenario £1.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Pan African Resources PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Pan African Resources PLC pay a dividend?
Pan African Resources PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 1.89% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Pan African Resources PLC pays a dividend of £0.0219 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.9%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 3, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2019. The payout ratio is 16.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 7.04 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pan African Resources PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -9.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.7 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PAF use?
Our models discount Pan African Resources PLC at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.76, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pan African Resources PLC that is -9.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pan African Resources PLC grew +25.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -9.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pan African Resources PLC (-9.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.63 %: that much free cash flow Pan African Resources PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pan African Resources PLC it is £0.9342 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of £1.16. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Pan African Resources PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, PAF trades above its calculated fair value: price £1.16, fair value £0.9342, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£1.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.9342). For Pan African Resources PLC the two are £0.2228 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pan African Resources PLC worth?
The market values Pan African Resources PLC at about £2.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is £1.16; our models calculate a fair value of £0.9342 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PAF?
Our models span a range for Pan African Resources PLC: cautious scenario £0.5802, base £0.9342, optimistic £1.22 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price £1.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PAF?
Pan African Resources PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £0.9342 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.0, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 5.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pan African Resources PLC (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 45.1%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PAF from its 52-week high?
Pan African Resources PLC trades at £1.16, about 37% below its 52-week high of £1.83 and 38% above the low of £0.8373 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.9342 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pan African Resources PLC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pan African Resources PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price £1.16, calculated fair value £0.9342 (−19%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PAF calculated?
We run Pan African Resources PLC through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £0.9342 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Pan African Resources PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £1.16. Our model-based fair value is £0.9342, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pan African Resources PLC right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (£0.5802 to £1.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) come from?
Earnings per share at Pan African Resources PLC grew −4.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −13.8 %, EBIT margin +12.7 %, tax rate −1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Pan African Resources PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The market capitalisation of Pan African Resources PLC is £2.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pan African Resources PLC is 2.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Earnings per share at Pan African Resources PLC are £0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The dividend yield of Pan African Resources PLC is 1.9% (payout 16.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The net margin of Pan African Resources PLC is 30.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pan African Resources PLC is 45.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pan African Resources PLC is 23.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The operating margin of Pan African Resources PLC is 43.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Revenue at Pan African Resources PLC is growing +90.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +53.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Earnings per share at Pan African Resources PLC are growing +124% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) hold?
Pan African Resources PLC holds more cash than debt, $49.2M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026