Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Pan African Resources PLC £0.45, price £1.29, upside -65.2%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.1099 – £1.83 · fair‑value band £0.3100 – £1.02 · the £1.29 price screens above the £0.4500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Pan African Resources PLC engages in the mining, extraction, production, and sale of gold in South Africa. Its flagship projects include the Barberton Mines that consists of three underground mines, including Fairview, Sheba, and Consort located in the Barberton Greenstone Belt; and Elikhulu tailings retreatment plant in Southern Africa.
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Pan African Resources PLC engages in the mining, extraction, production, and sale of gold in South Africa. Its flagship projects include the Barberton Mines that consists of three underground mines, including Fairview, Sheba, and Consort located in the Barberton Greenstone Belt; and Elikhulu tailings retreatment plant in Southern Africa. Pan African Resources PLC is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) currently trades at £1.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.4500, implying the stock looks roughly 187.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £1.19 per share, and 2 of the 17 models we run sit above the £1.29 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £0.1200, and 15 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £0.3100 (bear) to £1.02 (bull), the price of £1.29 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Pan African Resources PLC reported revenue of $540M in FY2025 versus $369M in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was $142M in FY2025, compounding +17.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.9B GBX · P/E ratio 14.4 · P/S ratio 3.76 · EPS (TTM) £0.0900 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 26.2% · Return on equity 43.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −65%, PAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £0.3100Fair Value £0.4500Bull £1.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0681 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+44.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+19.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26% vs 11%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 36%
2025 sits 88% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Compare Pan African Resources PLC with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−65% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)44% · Top 25%
Return on assets26% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)29% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)52% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth157% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.4× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)34· sector 20
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.4500 versus a price of £1.29, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PAF?
Our model-based fair value for Pan African Resources PLC is £0.4500 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £1.29.
What is the quality score of PAF?
Pan African Resources PLC has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.4500 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.3100, optimistic scenario £1.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pan African Resources PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.4500, about −65% upside versus a price of £1.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £0.3100, optimistic scenario £1.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Pan African Resources PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £838M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Pan African Resources PLC pay a dividend?
Pan African Resources PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.69% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pan African Resources PLC it is £0.4500 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £1.29. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pan African Resources PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PAF trades above its calculated fair value: price £1.29, fair value £0.4500, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£1.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.4500). For Pan African Resources PLC the two are £0.8420 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pan African Resources PLC worth?
The market values Pan African Resources PLC at about 1.9B GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £1.29; our models calculate a fair value of £0.4500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PAF?
Our models span a range for Pan African Resources PLC: cautious scenario £0.3100, base £0.4500, optimistic £1.02 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £1.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PAF?
Pan African Resources PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £0.4500 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pan African Resources PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 43.6%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PAF from its 52-week high?
Pan African Resources PLC trades at £1.29, about 29% below its 52-week high of £1.83 and 63% above the low of £0.7941 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.4500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pan African Resources PLC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pan African Resources PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £1.29, calculated fair value £0.4500 (−65%), Quality Score 62/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PAF calculated?
We run Pan African Resources PLC through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.4500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Pan African Resources PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was £1.29. Our model-based fair value is £0.4500, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pan African Resources PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£1.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (£0.3100 to £1.02). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) come from?
Earnings per share at Pan African Resources PLC grew +6.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.8 %, EBIT margin +6.3 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Pan African Resources PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The market capitalisation of Pan African Resources PLC is 1.9B GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pan African Resources PLC is 3.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Earnings per share at Pan African Resources PLC are £0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The dividend yield of Pan African Resources PLC is 1.7% (payout 24.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The net margin of Pan African Resources PLC is 26.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pan African Resources PLC is 43.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pan African Resources PLC is 20.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
The operating margin of Pan African Resources PLC is 52.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Revenue at Pan African Resources PLC is growing +157% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Earnings per share at Pan African Resources PLC are growing +192% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) generate?
The free cash flow of Pan African Resources PLC is −3.8M GBX (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) carry?
The net debt of Pan African Resources PLC is 144M GBX (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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