Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) stock SEK 126, price SEK 143, that is 11.5% below the price, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 109.03 – kr 284.93 · fair‑value band kr 100.94 – kr 151.67 · the kr 142.80 price screens above the kr 126.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Paradox Interactive AB (publ) develops and publishes strategy and management games on PC and consoles in the United States, Rest of Europe, Sweden, and internationally.
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The company's game portfolio comprises various franchises, such as Age of Wonders, Cities: Skylines, Crusader Kings, Europa Universalis, Hearts of Iron, Prison Architect, Stellaris, the Surviving games, and Victoria, as well as World of Darkness brand.
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) currently trades at kr 142.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 126.32, 12% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 187.77 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 142.80 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 22.54, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 100.94 (bear) to kr 151.67 (bull), the price of kr 142.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) reported revenue of 2.2B SEK in FY2025 versus 1.4B SEK in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was 125M SEK in FY2025, compounding −15.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 15.1B SEK (≈ $1.5B) Small · P/E ratio 95.2 · P/S ratio 6.62 · EPS (TTM) kr 1.50 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at −12%, PDX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 100.94Fair Value kr 126.32Bullkr 151.67
Price kr 142.80 · Downside -11.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Incomekr 18.24kr 18.57kr 19.5676
FCF DCFkr 164.97kr 297.87kr 535.7675
Growth DCFkr 161.64kr 278.10kr 471.7273
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFkr 164.97kr 297.87kr 535.7675
Owner Earningskr 170.02kr 308.78kr 553.1771
5Y Revenue Exitkr 73.50kr 97.10kr 125.0871
5Y EBITDA Exitkr 136.98kr 233.80kr 357.7271
5Y P/E Exitkr 74.92kr 100.15kr 127.0869
10Y Revenue Exitkr 102.90kr 137.20kr 183.8165
10Y EBITDA Exitkr 145.14kr 237.06kr 381.3864
10Y P/E Exitkr 104.39kr 139.43kr 185.5162
Earnings-Based
Graham-Doddkr 8.18kr 43.84kr 60.7463
Lynch FVkr 12.11kr 17.30kr 22.5061
PEG = 1.0kr 12.11kr 17.30kr 22.5057
EPVkr 25.81kr 27.78kr 29.4770
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMkr 44.01kr 86.84kr 130.1767
DDM Multi-Stagekr 44.01kr 75.47kr 91.7867
Multiples
P/E Multiplekr 19.86kr 26.47kr 33.0963
P/S Multiplekr 15.34kr 20.46kr 25.5758
P/B Multiplekr 34.13kr 45.51kr 56.8955
EV/EBITkr 33.28kr 40.50kr 47.7363
EV/EBITDAkr 129.71kr 169.08kr 208.4464
EV/Revenuekr 28.04kr 35.09kr 42.1352
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)kr 7.32kr 11.10kr 13.8752
Growth DCF
Growth DCFkr 161.64kr 278.10kr 471.7273
Rev-Margin DCFkr 73.50kr 97.44kr 124.8371
Economic Profit
Residual Incomekr 18.24kr 18.57kr 19.5676
ROIC Compounderkr 26.79kr 31.75kr 37.0670
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/Ekr 18.27kr 26.09kr 33.9267
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−19.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19.6% vs −4.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.2% a year for the price and +9.4% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 164 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Paradox Interactive AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PDX
Frequently asked questions
Is Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 126.32 versus a price of kr 142.80, about 12% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PDX?
Our model-based fair value for Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is kr 126.32 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 142.80.
What is the quality score of PDX?
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 126.32 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 100.94, optimistic scenario kr 151.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Paradox Interactive AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 126.32, about 12% lower versus a price of kr 142.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 100.94, optimistic scenario kr 151.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.3B SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Paradox Interactive AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of 3.50% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) pays a dividend of kr 5.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.5%. The last ex-dividend date was May 13, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2017. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.37 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Paradox Interactive AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by -1.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PDX use?
Our models discount Paradox Interactive AB (publ) at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.04, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Paradox Interactive AB (publ) that is -1.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Paradox Interactive AB (publ) grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -1.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (-1.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.15 %: that much free cash flow Paradox Interactive AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Paradox Interactive AB (publ) it is kr 126.32 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of kr 142.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Paradox Interactive AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, PDX trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 142.80, fair value kr 126.32, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PDX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 142.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 126.32). For Paradox Interactive AB (publ) the two are kr 16.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Paradox Interactive AB (publ) worth?
The market values Paradox Interactive AB (publ) at about 15.1B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is kr 142.80; our models calculate a fair value of kr 126.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PDX?
Our models span a range for Paradox Interactive AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 100.94, base kr 126.32, optimistic kr 151.67 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price kr 142.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PDX?
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 95.2 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 126.32 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 41.2. Other multiples: P/B 6.1, P/S 6.6, EV/EBITDA 17.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 6.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PDX from its 52-week high?
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) trades at kr 142.80, about 18% below its 52-week high of kr 175.05 and 27% above the low of kr 112.46 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 126.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Paradox Interactive AB (publ)?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value NetEase, Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, Roblox Corporation, Zhejiang Century Huatong Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Paradox Interactive AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price kr 142.80, calculated fair value kr 126.32 (−12%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PDX calculated?
We run Paradox Interactive AB (publ) through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 126.32 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Paradox Interactive AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 142.80. Our model-based fair value is kr 126.32, about 12% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Paradox Interactive AB (publ) right now?
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) come from?
Earnings per share at Paradox Interactive AB (publ) grew +11.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.3 %, EBIT margin −6.7 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Paradox Interactive AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The market capitalisation of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is 15.1B SEK (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is 6.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
Earnings per share at Paradox Interactive AB (publ) are kr 1.50 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 95.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The dividend yield of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is 3.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The net margin of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is 7.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is 17.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The operating margin of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is 31.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
Revenue at Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is growing +15.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
Earnings per share at Paradox Interactive AB (publ) are growing +37.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) hold?
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) holds more cash than debt, 1.2B SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 9, 2026