Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) SEK 94.07, price SEK 157, upside -40.1%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Paradox Interactive AB (publ) develops and publishes strategy and management games on PC and consoles in the United States, Rest of Europe, Sweden, and internationally.
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Paradox Interactive AB (publ) develops and publishes strategy and management games on PC and consoles in the United States, Rest of Europe, Sweden, and internationally. The company's game portfolio comprises various franchises, such as Age of Wonders, Cities: Skylines, Crusader Kings, Europa Universalis, Hearts of Iron, Prison Architect, Stellaris, the Surviving games, and Victoria, as well as World of Darkness brand. Paradox Interactive AB (publ) was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) currently trades at kr 157.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 94.07, implying the stock looks roughly 66.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 128.75 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 157.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 15.85, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 70.56 (bear) to kr 120.53 (bull), the price of kr 157.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) reported revenue of 2.2B SEK in FY2025 versus 1.4B SEK in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was 125M SEK in FY2025, compounding −15.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 16.6B SEK (≈ $1.7B) · P/E ratio 189.2 · P/S ratio 10.8 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.8300 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at −40%, PDX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 70.56Fair Value kr 94.07Bull kr 120.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−19.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−20% vs −4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.4% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 148 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Paradox Interactive AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PDX
Frequently asked questions
Is Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 94.07 versus a price of kr 157.00, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PDX?
Our model-based fair value for Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is kr 94.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 157.00.
What is the quality score of PDX?
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 94.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 70.56, optimistic scenario kr 120.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Paradox Interactive AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 94.07, about −40% upside versus a price of kr 157.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 70.56, optimistic scenario kr 120.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Paradox Interactive AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.18% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Paradox Interactive AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +0.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PDX use?
Our models discount Paradox Interactive AB (publ) at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Paradox Interactive AB (publ) that is +0.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Paradox Interactive AB (publ) grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +0.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (+0.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.43 %: that much free cash flow Paradox Interactive AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Paradox Interactive AB (publ) it is kr 94.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 157.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Paradox Interactive AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PDX trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 157.00, fair value kr 94.07, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PDX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 157.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 94.07). For Paradox Interactive AB (publ) the two are kr 62.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Paradox Interactive AB (publ) worth?
The market values Paradox Interactive AB (publ) at about 16.6B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 157.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 94.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PDX?
Our models span a range for Paradox Interactive AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 70.56, base kr 94.07, optimistic kr 120.53 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 157.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PDX?
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 189.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 94.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.6, P/S 7.7, EV/EBITDA 29.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PDX from its 52-week high?
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) trades at kr 157.00, about 11% below its 52-week high of kr 176.11 and 40% above the low of kr 112.46 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 94.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Paradox Interactive AB (publ)?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Konami Group, NetEase, Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, Roblox Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Paradox Interactive AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 157.00, calculated fair value kr 94.07 (−40%), Quality Score 71/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PDX calculated?
We run Paradox Interactive AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 94.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Paradox Interactive AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 157.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 94.07, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Paradox Interactive AB (publ) right now?
A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 120.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) come from?
Earnings per share at Paradox Interactive AB (publ) grew +11.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.3 %, EBIT margin −6.7 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Paradox Interactive AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The market capitalisation of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is 16.6B SEK (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is 10.8 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
Earnings per share at Paradox Interactive AB (publ) are kr 0.8300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 189.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The dividend yield of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is 3.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The net margin of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is 5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is 17.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
The operating margin of Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is 21.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
Revenue at Paradox Interactive AB (publ) is growing −7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX)?
Earnings per share at Paradox Interactive AB (publ) are growing −30.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX) hold?
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) holds more cash than debt, 1.2B SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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