Paradox Interactive AB (PDX) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · SE · Market cap 13.7B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from kr 34.63 to kr 26.13 (−24.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +5.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 81% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 32.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 109.03 – kr 284.93 · fair‑value band kr 19.60 – kr 32.66 · the kr 135.60 price screens above the kr 26.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Paradox Interactive AB (PDX) currently trades at kr 135.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 26.13, implying the stock looks roughly 80.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Paradox Interactive AB generated revenue of 2.2B SEK at a net margin of 4.1%. Revenue declined 7.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.2B SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 19.60 (bear case) to kr 32.66 (bull case); at kr 135.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -19% fair-value upside, at -81%, PDX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 141.84) versus Asset-Based (kr 15.85). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) develops and publishes strategy and management games on PC and consoles in the United States, Rest of Europe, Sweden, and internationally.
Full company description
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) develops and publishes strategy and management games on PC and consoles in the United States, Rest of Europe, Sweden, and internationally. The company's game portfolio comprises various franchises, such as Age of Wonders, Cities: Skylines, Crusader Kings, Europa Universalis, Hearts of Iron, Prison Architect, Stellaris, the Surviving games, and Victoria, as well as World of Darkness brand. Paradox Interactive AB (publ) was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Paradox Interactive AB reported revenue of kr 2.2B in FY2025 versus kr 1.4B in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was kr 125M in FY2025, compounding −15.6%/yr from FY2021.
PDX screens 81% overvalued. Compare with NetEase, Inc →
Peer Group
Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 152 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Electronic Gaming & Multimedia median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Electronic Gaming & Multimedia stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NetEase, Inc 9999 | HK$202.60 | HK$192.74 | -5% |
| Electronic Arts Inc EA | $207.27 | $76.57 | -63% |
| Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc TTWO | $237.04 | $60.45 | -74% |
| Roblox Corporation RBLX | $57.07 | $21.20 | -63% |
| Zhejiang Century Huatong Group 002602 | ¥14.04 | ¥14.68 | +5% |
| KRAFTON, Inc 259960 | 240,500 KRW | 395,557 KRW | +64% |
| Kunlun Tech Co 300418 | ¥44.61 | ¥6.87 | -85% |
| Giant Network Group 002558 | ¥29.98 | ¥15.69 | -48% |
| International Games System Co 3293 | 704.00 TWD | 568.16 TWD | -19% |
| 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group 002555 | ¥19.02 | ¥22.29 | +17% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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