Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Peloton Interactive Inc stock $4.98, price $5.61, that is 11.2% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.88 – $116.58 · fair‑value band $3.18 – $6.87 · the $5.61 price screens above the $4.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Peloton Interactive in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Peloton Interactive is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Peloton Interactive, Inc. provides fitness and wellness products and services in North America and internationally.
Show moreShow less
The company offers connected fitness products, such as the Peloton Bike, Peloton Bike+, Peloton Tread, Peloton Tread+, and Peloton Row. It also provides all-access, rental, and Peloton App memberships. In addition, the company leases Peloton Bike+ products.
The company sells its products through e-commerce and inside sales, retail showrooms, and third-party retailers. Peloton Interactive, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON) currently trades at $5.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.98, 11% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $8.78 per share, and 8 of the 21 models we run sit above the $5.61 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.6200, and 13 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.18 (bear) to $6.87 (bull), the price of $5.61 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Peloton Interactive Inc reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2026 versus $3.6B in FY2022, a compound −9.1%/yr. Reported net income was $63.2M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $2.9B Mid · P/E ratio 18.7 · P/S ratio 1.19 · EPS (TTM) $0.3000 · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity −847% · Return on assets (EBIT) −25.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 20.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −11%, PTON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.18Fair Value $4.98Bull$6.87
Price $5.61 · Downside -11.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1085 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$7.15$11.76$17.8379
Growth DCF$7.12$11.34$16.6578
5Y EBITDA Exit$3.95$6.94$10.3574
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$7.15$11.76$17.8379
Owner Earnings$0.9400$2.70$5.0172
5Y Revenue Exit$3.50$6.08$9.2371
5Y EBITDA Exit$3.95$6.94$10.3574
5Y P/E Exit$2.58$4.30$6.0270
10Y Revenue Exit$4.87$7.47$10.8066
10Y EBITDA Exit$5.22$8.00$11.5668
10Y P/E Exit$4.45$6.38$8.6264
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$1.00$3.56$4.8064
Lynch FV$0.8400$1.20$1.5661
PEG = 1.0$0.8400$1.20$1.5657
EPVn/a$0.3200$0.610068
Multiples
P/E Multiple$2.43$3.23$4.0463
P/S Multiple$1.87$2.50$3.1258
EV/EBIT$1.99$3.93$5.8863
EV/EBITDA$1.24$2.93$4.6363
EV/Revenue$0.0800$1.77$3.4646
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$7.12$11.34$16.6578
Rev-Margin DCF$3.50$6.22$9.5171
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder$0.0400$0.6200$1.2963
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$1.66$2.37$3.0867
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.1M and none bought.
SaleSaqib BaigChief Accounting Officer14× since Nov 17, 2025: 217,693 shares, avg. $5.70$1.2MOct 20, 2026
SaleCharles Peter KirolChief Operating Officer8× since Nov 17, 2025: 95,797 shares, avg. $5.67$542,900Oct 15, 2026
SaleDion C. SandersChief Commercial Officer6× since Nov 17, 2025: 695,204 shares, avg. $5.53$3.8MAug 19, 2026
SaleKaren BooneDirector2× since Nov 12, 2025: 50,000 shares, avg. $6.39$319,500Aug 17, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleNick Caldwell V.Chief Product Officer5× since Nov 17, 2025: 326,978 shares, avg. $6.05$2.0MMar 16, 2026
SaleElizabeth F CoddingtonChief Financial Officer4× since Nov 17, 2025: 519,666 shares, avg. $5.63$2.9MMar 16, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJennifer Cunningham CotterChief Content Officer4× since Nov 17, 2025: 559,856 shares, avg. $5.62$3.1MFeb 20, 2026
SalePeter C SternPresident and CEO, Director3× since Nov 17, 2025: 187,322 shares, avg. $5.93$1.1MFeb 17, 2026
Plus 25 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.8%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4.7% (2021) → 7.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.4% a year for the price and −3.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Hardware refreshes with AI coaching enable equipment sales growth and first GAAP net income, yet limited moat, declining subscriptions and high churn constrain lasting advantages.
Main risk: Failure of new treadmills to turn buyers into long-term subscribers would hit recurring subscription revenue.
Peloton just launched a foldable Tread Flex at a lower price point along with new AI coaching features for runners. The hardware refresh aims to broaden appeal beyond bikes and support equipment sales that helped deliver the first full year of GAAP net income. At the same time connected fitness subscriptions keep declining with higher churn. Will the new treadmills convert enough buyers into long-term subscribers or mainly boost one-time hardware revenue?
Compare Peloton Interactive Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 169 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−11.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets3.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)20.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.7× · Pricier than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.98 versus a price of $5.61, about 11% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PTON?
Our model-based fair value for Peloton Interactive Inc is $4.98 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.61.
What is the quality score of PTON?
Peloton Interactive Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.98 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.18, optimistic scenario $6.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Peloton Interactive Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.98, about 11% lower versus a price of $5.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.18, optimistic scenario $6.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
Peloton Interactive Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Peloton Interactive Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +3.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -9.5 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PTON use?
Our models discount Peloton Interactive Inc at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 2.50, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Peloton Interactive Inc that is +3.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Peloton Interactive Inc grew -9.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +3.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Peloton Interactive Inc (+3.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.92 %: that much free cash flow Peloton Interactive Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Peloton Interactive Inc it is $4.98 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $5.61. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Peloton Interactive Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, PTON trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.61, fair value $4.98, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PTON?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.98). For Peloton Interactive Inc the two are $0.6290 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Peloton Interactive Inc worth?
The market values Peloton Interactive Inc at about $2.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $5.61; our models calculate a fair value of $4.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PTON?
Our models span a range for Peloton Interactive Inc: cautious scenario $3.18, base $4.98, optimistic $6.87 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $5.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PTON?
Peloton Interactive Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.98 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 40.1 (reported for FY2026: 46.6). Other multiples: P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 13.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Peloton Interactive Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PTON from its 52-week high?
Peloton Interactive Inc trades at $5.61, about 27% below its 52-week high of $7.66 and 51% above the low of $3.71 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Peloton Interactive Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Peloton Interactive Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $5.61, calculated fair value $4.98 (−11%), Quality Score 52/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PTON calculated?
We run Peloton Interactive Inc through 21 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.98 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Peloton Interactive Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $5.61. Our model-based fair value is $4.98, about 11% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Peloton Interactive Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($3.18 to $6.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Peloton Interactive Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
The market capitalisation of Peloton Interactive Inc is $2.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Peloton Interactive Inc is 1.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
Earnings per share at Peloton Interactive Inc are $0.3000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
The net margin of Peloton Interactive Inc is 5.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Peloton Interactive Inc is −847% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Peloton Interactive Inc is −25.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
The operating margin of Peloton Interactive Inc is 20.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
Revenue at Peloton Interactive Inc is growing +1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
Earnings per share at Peloton Interactive Inc are growing +534% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON) carry?
The net debt of Peloton Interactive Inc is $1.7B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Peloton Interactive Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Peloton Interactive Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 8, 2026