Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Peloton Interactive Inc $9.40, price $4.80, upside +95.8%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.88 – $126.92 · fair‑value band $6.08 – $13.60 · the $4.80 price screens below the $9.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Peloton Interactive, Inc. provides fitness and wellness products and services in North America and internationally. The company offers connected fitness products, such as the Peloton Bike, Peloton Bike+, Peloton Tread, Peloton Tread+, and Peloton Row. It also provides all-access, rental, and Peloton App memberships.
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Peloton Interactive, Inc. provides fitness and wellness products and services in North America and internationally. The company offers connected fitness products, such as the Peloton Bike, Peloton Bike+, Peloton Tread, Peloton Tread+, and Peloton Row. It also provides all-access, rental, and Peloton App memberships. In addition, the company leases Peloton Bike+ products. The company sells its products through e-commerce and inside sales, retail showrooms, and third-party retailers. Peloton Interactive, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON) currently trades at $4.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.40, implying the stock looks roughly 48.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $10.50 per share, and 8 of the 9 models we run sit above the $4.80 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $10.43, and 1 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.08 (bear) to $13.60 (bull), the price of $4.80 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Peloton Interactive Inc reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $4.0B in FY2021, a compound −11.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$119M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.7B · P/E ratio 104.8 · P/S ratio 1.11 · EPS (TTM) $0.0600 · Net margin −4.8% · Return on equity −847% · Return on assets (EBIT) −28.2% · Operating margin 9.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at 96%, PTON screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.08Fair Value $9.40Bull $13.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0600 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4.4% (2020) → −1.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.6% a year for the price and −2.9% for the forecasts.
Compare Peloton Interactive Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 189 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+96% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)104.8× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.11× · Pricier than median
P/FCF8.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA13.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 43
FUTURE (revenue growth)6· sector 14
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 57
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.40 versus a price of $4.80, about +96% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PTON?
Our model-based fair value for Peloton Interactive Inc is $9.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.80.
What is the quality score of PTON?
Peloton Interactive Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.08, optimistic scenario $13.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Peloton Interactive Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.40, about +96% upside versus a price of $4.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.08, optimistic scenario $13.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
Peloton Interactive Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Peloton Interactive Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -4.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PTON use?
Our models discount Peloton Interactive Inc at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 2.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Peloton Interactive Inc that is -4.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Peloton Interactive Inc grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies -4.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Peloton Interactive Inc (-4.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.29 %: that much free cash flow Peloton Interactive Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Peloton Interactive Inc it is $9.40 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.80. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Peloton Interactive Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, PTON trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.80, fair value $9.40, a gap of about +96% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PTON?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.40). For Peloton Interactive Inc the two are $4.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Peloton Interactive Inc worth?
The market values Peloton Interactive Inc at about $2.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.80; our models calculate a fair value of $9.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PTON?
Our models span a range for Peloton Interactive Inc: cautious scenario $6.08, base $9.40, optimistic $13.60 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PTON?
Peloton Interactive Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 104.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.40 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 13.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Peloton Interactive Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PTON from its 52-week high?
Peloton Interactive Inc trades at $4.80, about 47% below its 52-week high of $9.00 and 29% above the low of $3.71 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Peloton Interactive Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value ANTA Sports Products Limited, Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Peloton Interactive Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.80, calculated fair value $9.40 (+96%), Quality Score 52/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PTON calculated?
We run Peloton Interactive Inc through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Peloton Interactive Inc currently trades 96 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $4.80. Our model-based fair value is $9.40, about +96% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Peloton Interactive Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($6.08 to $13.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Peloton Interactive Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
The market capitalisation of Peloton Interactive Inc is $2.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Peloton Interactive Inc is 1.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
Earnings per share at Peloton Interactive Inc are $0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 104.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
The net margin of Peloton Interactive Inc is −4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Peloton Interactive Inc is −847% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Peloton Interactive Inc is −28.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
The operating margin of Peloton Interactive Inc is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON)?
Revenue at Peloton Interactive Inc is growing +1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON) carry?
The net debt of Peloton Interactive Inc is $937M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026