Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd stock $13.39, price $18.57, that is 27.9% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.52 – $24.34 · fair‑value band $9.82 – $17.64 · the $18.57 price screens above the $13.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. provides infrastructure, electronics, and functional materials in Japan.
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The company operates through Electronic Materials; Living environment basic materials; Functional materials; and Processing, trading and technical services segments It offers polyvinyl chloride resin, caustic soda, methanol, chloromethanes, and polyvinyl alcohol; and semiconductor silicon, rare earth magnets, semiconductor encapsulating materials, LED packaging materials, photoresists, photomask blanks, and synthetic quartz products.
The company also sells silicones, cellulose derivatives, silicon metal, synthetic pheromones, vinyl chloride-vinyl acetate copolymer, liquid fluoroelastomers, pellicles, and silicon anode material for lithium-ion batteries.
In addition, it is involved in the processed plastics; export of technologies and plants; export and import of products; and engineering activities. The company was formerly known as Shin-Etsu Nitrogen Fertilizer Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. in 1940.
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY) currently trades at $18.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.39, 28% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $14.91 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $18.57 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.34, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.82 (bear) to $17.64 (bull), the price of $18.57 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥2.7T in FY2026 versus ¥2.1T in FY2022, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥503B in FY2026, compounding +0.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $69.8B Large · P/E ratio 22.1 · P/S ratio 4.08 · EPS (TTM) $0.8400 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 18.4% · Return on equity 11.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −28%, SHECY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.82Fair Value $13.39Bull$17.64
Price $18.57 · Downside -27.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5063 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.1% vs 14.4%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 25%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.7% a year for the price and +3.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (67 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Robust expansion in electronic materials from AI semiconductor demand forms the main strength, while exposure to cyclical PVC markets in Asia remains the key weakness.
Main risk: Chinese and South Korean producers investing in domestic silicon wafer and photoresist capacity could erode Shin-Etsu's market share in semiconductor materials and pressure prices or margins.
Bull case: Shin-Etsu could maintain its position through continued innovation in advanced materials and long-term supply agreements with major foundries, leveraging its scale and quality edge to retain customers despite new entrants.
Bear case: If regional competitors achieve sufficient scale and certification, Shin-Etsu might lose significant volume in its electronic materials segment, leading to lower utilization and squeezed margins in its core semiconductor business.
Shin-Etsu’s electronic materials segment posted a 28 percent rise in first-half operating profit on strong AI-driven semiconductor demand and tighter supply. Its PVC-related business, however, saw profits fall 16 percent due to softer Asian markets. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the semiconductor momentum outweigh the weakness in traditional chemicals, or will the mixed results continue to limit overall growth?
Compare Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 340 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−27.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.8% · Above median
Return on assets8.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)18.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)28.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)22.1× · Pricier than median
P/B2.46× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.07× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow28.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.3× · Pricier than median
PEG1.67× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)78· sector 67
PAST (return on equity)47· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)36· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHECY
Frequently asked questions
Is Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.39 versus a price of $18.57, about 28% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SHECY?
Our model-based fair value for Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR is $13.39 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.57.
What is the quality score of SHECY?
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.39 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.82, optimistic scenario $17.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.39, about 28% lower versus a price of $18.57 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.82, optimistic scenario $17.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.7T (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 1.79% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +13.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.8 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHECY use?
Our models discount Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.08, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR that is +13.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR grew +12.8 % a year. The price currently implies +13.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR (+13.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.44 %: that much free cash flow Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR it is $13.39 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $18.57. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, SHECY trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.57, fair value $13.39, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHECY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.39). For Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR the two are $5.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR at about $69.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $18.57; our models calculate a fair value of $13.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHECY?
Our models span a range for Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $9.82, base $13.39, optimistic $17.64 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $18.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHECY?
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 2.5, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
What is the PEG ratio of SHECY?
The PEG ratio of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR is 1.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 11.8%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHECY from its 52-week high?
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR trades at $18.57, about 24% below its 52-week high of $24.34 and 37% above the low of $13.53 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Dow Inc, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Zangge Mining Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $18.57, calculated fair value $13.39 (−28%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHECY calculated?
We run Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $18.57. Our model-based fair value is $13.39, about 28% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY) come from?
Earnings per share at Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR grew +15.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.3 %, EBIT margin +5.6 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
The market capitalisation of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR is $69.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR is 4.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
Earnings per share at Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR are $0.8400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
The dividend yield of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR is 1.8% (payout 39.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
The net margin of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR is 18.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR is 15.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
The operating margin of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR is 28.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
Revenue at Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR is growing +15.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY)?
Earnings per share at Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR are growing +21.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (SHECY) hold?
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥1.4T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026