Shoe Station Group (SHOE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shoe Station Group stock $26.78, price $14.54, upside +84.2%, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Shoe Station Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails footwear in the United States. Its products include shoes, sneakers, heels, sandals, boots, work and safety shoes, and athletic shoes; and accessories for men, women and kids.
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It sells its products through stores, online, and mobile app. The company was formerly known as Shoe Carnival, Inc. and changed its name to Shoe Station Group Inc. in June 2026. Shoe Station Group Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Fort Mill, South Carolina.
Stock analysis
Shoe Station Group (SHOE) currently trades at $14.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.78, implying the stock looks roughly 46% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $35.05 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the $14.54 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.09, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $18.39 (bear) to $37.13 (bull), the price of $14.54 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Shoe Station Group reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2026 versus $1.3B in FY2022, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $52.3M in FY2026, compounding −23.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $397M Small · P/E ratio 16.5 · P/S ratio 0.36 · EPS (TTM) $0.8800 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 84%, SHOE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$18.39Fair Value $26.78Bull$37.13
Price $14.54 · Upside +84.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1854 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
BuyW Kerry JacksonEVP - CFO31,000 shares at $16.13$500,030Apr 2, 2026
Plus 10 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.4% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.9% vs 10.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Retail · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside+84.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.6% · Below median
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−7.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.4% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.5× · Pricier than median
P/B0.58× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.36× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.9× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shoe Station Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHOE
Frequently asked questions
Is Shoe Station Group (SHOE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.78 versus a price of $14.54, about +84% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SHOE?
Our model-based fair value for Shoe Station Group is $26.78 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.54.
What is the quality score of SHOE?
Shoe Station Group has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.78 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.39, optimistic scenario $37.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shoe Station Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.78, about +84% upside versus a price of $14.54 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $18.39, optimistic scenario $37.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
Shoe Station Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Shoe Station Group pay a dividend?
Shoe Station Group currently shows a dividend yield of 4.40% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Shoe Station Group (SHOE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Shoe Station Group pays a dividend of $0.64 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 6, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2012. The payout ratio is 72.7% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.53 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shoe Station Group would have to grow free cash flow by +2.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.1 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHOE use?
Our models discount Shoe Station Group at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shoe Station Group that is +2.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shoe Station Group (SHOE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shoe Station Group grew +3.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +2.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shoe Station Group (SHOE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shoe Station Group (+2.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.69 %: that much free cash flow Shoe Station Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shoe Station Group it is $26.78 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $14.54. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Shoe Station Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, SHOE trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.54, fair value $26.78, a gap of about +84% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHOE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.78). For Shoe Station Group the two are $12.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shoe Station Group worth?
The market values Shoe Station Group at about $397M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $14.54; our models calculate a fair value of $26.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHOE?
Our models span a range for Shoe Station Group: cautious scenario $18.39, base $26.78, optimistic $37.13 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $14.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHOE?
Shoe Station Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $26.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 0.6, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 3.6.
What is the PEG ratio of SHOE?
The PEG ratio of Shoe Station Group is 0.95 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shoe Station Group (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 3.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Shoe Station Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A, The TJX Companies, Inc, Fast Retailing Co, Ross Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shoe Station Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $14.54, calculated fair value $26.78 (+84%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHOE calculated?
We run Shoe Station Group through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $26.78 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Shoe Station Group currently trades 46% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $14.54. Our model-based fair value is $26.78, about +84% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shoe Station Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($18.39). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($18.39 to $37.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Shoe Station Group (SHOE) come from?
Earnings per share at Shoe Station Group grew +14.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.0 %, EBIT margin +5.9 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shoe Station Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
The market capitalisation of Shoe Station Group is $397M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shoe Station Group is 0.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
Earnings per share at Shoe Station Group are $0.8800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
The dividend yield of Shoe Station Group is 4.4% (payout 72.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
The net margin of Shoe Station Group is 2.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shoe Station Group is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shoe Station Group is 12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
The operating margin of Shoe Station Group is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
Revenue at Shoe Station Group is growing −7.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shoe Station Group (SHOE)?
Earnings per share at Shoe Station Group are growing −67.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shoe Station Group (SHOE) carry?
The net debt of Shoe Station Group is $254M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 9.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026