Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Transcontinental Realty Investors stock $26.74, price $49.83, that is 46.3% below the price, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.84 – $58.91 · fair‑value band $20.06 – $33.43 · the $49.83 price screens above the $26.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc., a Dallas-based real estate investment company, holds a diverse portfolio of equity real estate located across the U.S., including office buildings, apartments, shopping centers, and developed and undeveloped land.
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The Company invests in real estate through direct ownership, leases and partnerships and invests in mortgage loans on real estate. The Company also holds mortgage receivables.
Stock analysis
Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI) currently trades at $49.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.74, 46% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $61.03 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the $49.83 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $26.89, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $20.06 (bear) to $33.43 (bull), the price of $49.83 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2014: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2014.
Transcontinental Realty Investors reported revenue of $49.1M in FY2025 versus $37.8M in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was $13.8M in FY2025, compounding +10.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $430M Small · P/E ratio 53.6 · P/S ratio 8.59 · EPS (TTM) $0.9300 · Net margin 16.1% · Return on equity 1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −18.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −46%, TCI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$20.06Fair Value $26.74Bull$33.43
Price $49.83 · Downside -46.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7975 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
BuyAMERICAN REALTY INVESTORS INC10% owner70,023 shares at $55.50$3.9MJan 12, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2014: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2014.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.1% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+13.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.4% vs −4.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → −13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 472 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−46.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)16.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)−18.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)53.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.51× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)8.59× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 55
FUTURE (revenue growth)29· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)88· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 66
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.74 versus a price of $49.83, about 46% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TCI?
Our model-based fair value for Transcontinental Realty Investors is $26.74 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $49.83.
What is the quality score of TCI?
Transcontinental Realty Investors has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.74 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.06, optimistic scenario $33.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Transcontinental Realty Investors stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.74, about 46% lower versus a price of $49.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.06, optimistic scenario $33.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
Transcontinental Realty Investors reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $50.1M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Transcontinental Realty Investors it is $26.74 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $49.83. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models in 3 families (Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Transcontinental Realty Investors stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, TCI trades above its calculated fair value: price $49.83, fair value $26.74, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TCI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($49.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.74). For Transcontinental Realty Investors the two are $23.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Transcontinental Realty Investors worth?
The market values Transcontinental Realty Investors at about $430M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $49.83; our models calculate a fair value of $26.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TCI?
Our models span a range for Transcontinental Realty Investors: cautious scenario $20.06, base $26.74, optimistic $33.43 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $49.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TCI?
Transcontinental Realty Investors trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 53.6 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $26.74 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 30.7. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 8.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Transcontinental Realty Investors (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 1.0%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TCI from its 52-week high?
Transcontinental Realty Investors trades at $49.83, about 15% below its 52-week high of $58.91 and 51% above the low of $33.10 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Transcontinental Realty Investors?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Transcontinental Realty Investors stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $49.83, calculated fair value $26.74 (−46%), Quality Score 42/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TCI calculated?
We run Transcontinental Realty Investors through 4 models from 3 families: Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $26.74 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Transcontinental Realty Investors itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $49.83. Our model-based fair value is $26.74, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Transcontinental Realty Investors right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($33.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Transcontinental Realty Investors
How large is the market capitalisation of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
The market capitalisation of Transcontinental Realty Investors is $430M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Transcontinental Realty Investors is 8.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
Earnings per share at Transcontinental Realty Investors are $0.9300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 53.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
The net margin of Transcontinental Realty Investors is 16.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Transcontinental Realty Investors is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Transcontinental Realty Investors is −1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
The operating margin of Transcontinental Realty Investors is −18.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
Revenue at Transcontinental Realty Investors is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
Earnings per share at Transcontinental Realty Investors are growing −96.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI) generate?
The free cash flow of Transcontinental Realty Investors is −$82.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI) carry?
The net debt of Transcontinental Realty Investors is $197M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026