Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Transcontinental Realty Investors $26.74, price $41.56, upside -35.7%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.84 – $58.91 · fair‑value band $20.06 – $33.43 · the $41.56 price screens above the $26.74 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc., a Dallas-based real estate investment company, holds a diverse portfolio of equity real estate located across the U.S., including office buildings, apartments, shopping centers, and developed and undeveloped land.
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Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc., a Dallas-based real estate investment company, holds a diverse portfolio of equity real estate located across the U.S., including office buildings, apartments, shopping centers, and developed and undeveloped land. The Company invests in real estate through direct ownership, leases and partnerships and invests in mortgage loans on real estate. The Company also holds mortgage receivables.
Stock analysis
Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI) currently trades at $41.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.74, implying the stock looks roughly 55.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $64.66 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the $41.56 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $26.74, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $20.06 (bear) to $33.43 (bull), the price of $41.56 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Transcontinental Realty Investors reported revenue of $49.1M in FY2025 versus $37.8M in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was $13.8M in FY2025, compounding +10.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $359M · P/E ratio 44.2 · P/S ratio 12.4 · EPS (TTM) $0.9400 · Net margin 28.1% · Return on equity 1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.0% · Operating margin −18.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −36%, TCI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $20.06Fair Value $26.74Bull $33.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6902 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.21/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.1% a year
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+14.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs −4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → −13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 547 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−36% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)16% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−18% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)44.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.42× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)7.17× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)29· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)88· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.74 versus a price of $41.56, about −36% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TCI?
Our model-based fair value for Transcontinental Realty Investors is $26.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $41.56.
What is the quality score of TCI?
Transcontinental Realty Investors has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.06, optimistic scenario $33.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Transcontinental Realty Investors stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.74, about −36% upside versus a price of $41.56 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.06, optimistic scenario $33.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
Transcontinental Realty Investors reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $50.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Transcontinental Realty Investors it is $26.74 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $41.56. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Transcontinental Realty Investors stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TCI trades above its calculated fair value: price $41.56, fair value $26.74, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TCI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($41.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.74). For Transcontinental Realty Investors the two are $14.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Transcontinental Realty Investors worth?
The market values Transcontinental Realty Investors at about $359M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $41.56; our models calculate a fair value of $26.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TCI?
Our models span a range for Transcontinental Realty Investors: cautious scenario $20.06, base $26.74, optimistic $33.43 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $41.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TCI?
Transcontinental Realty Investors trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $26.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 7.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Transcontinental Realty Investors (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 1.0%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TCI from its 52-week high?
Transcontinental Realty Investors trades at $41.56, about 29% below its 52-week high of $58.91 and 26% above the low of $33.10 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Transcontinental Realty Investors?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Transcontinental Realty Investors stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $41.56, calculated fair value $26.74 (−36%), Quality Score 42/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TCI calculated?
We run Transcontinental Realty Investors through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $26.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Transcontinental Realty Investors itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $41.56. Our model-based fair value is $26.74, about −36% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Transcontinental Realty Investors right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($33.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Transcontinental Realty Investors
How large is the market capitalisation of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
The market capitalisation of Transcontinental Realty Investors is $359M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Transcontinental Realty Investors is 12.4 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
Earnings per share at Transcontinental Realty Investors are $0.9400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
The net margin of Transcontinental Realty Investors is 28.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Transcontinental Realty Investors is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Transcontinental Realty Investors is −1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
The operating margin of Transcontinental Realty Investors is −18.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
Revenue at Transcontinental Realty Investors is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)?
Earnings per share at Transcontinental Realty Investors are growing −96.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI) generate?
The free cash flow of Transcontinental Realty Investors is −$82.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI) carry?
The net debt of Transcontinental Realty Investors is $197M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026