Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Thai Oil Public Company Limited stock THB 78.03, price THB 55.75, upside +40.0%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 20.18 THB – 77.75 THB · fair‑value band 45.96 THB – 103.55 THB · the 55.75 THB price screens below the 78.03 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Thai Oil Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the oil refining and distributions, petrochemicals, lube base oil, and other businesses in Thailand, Indonesia, and internationally.
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It operates through Oil Refinery, Lube Base Oil Refinery, Aromatics and LAB, Power Generation, Solvent, Ethanol, Olefins, and Others segments.
The company offers refined fuels, including gasoline, diesel/gas oil, jet fuel, kerosene, fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas; and lube base oil, bitumen/asphalt, by-products, and special products, such as treated distillate aromatics extract and slack wax.
It also provides petrochemicals comprising paraxylene, benzene, toluene, and mixed xylenes; linear alkyl benzene, heavy alkyl benzene, and molex raffinates; and polyethylene and polypropylene resins, styrene monomer, butadiene, and olefins.
In addition, the company operates natural gas-fired co-generation power plants that generate and distribute electricity, steam, industrial water, and public utilities; and develops, invests, and operates power businesses.
Further, it is involved in the manufacturing and distribution of solvents and chemicals; investments in venture capital funds and startup businesses; production of ethanol; management of human resources; provision of technical support and treasury advice; design, development, and maintenance of digital services and systems; social enterprise operation support; and pipeline transportation of refined petroleum products.
The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Stock analysis
Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) currently trades at 55.75 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 78.03 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 29% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 155.35 THB per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the 55.75 THB price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 13.64 THB, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 45.96 THB (bear) to 103.55 THB (bull), the price of 55.75 THB sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Thai Oil Public Company Limited reported revenue of 394B THB in FY2025 versus 336B THB in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was 14.6B THB in FY2025, compounding +3.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 125B THB (≈ $3.7B) Mid · P/E ratio 3.8 · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) 14.49 THB · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 8.5% · Return on equity 16.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 40%, TOP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear45.96 THBFair Value 78.03 THBBull103.55 THB
Price 55.75 THB · Upside +40.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (11.53 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF131.98 THB180.52 THB263.06 THB78
Growth DCF137.25 THB183.40 THB255.85 THB77
Owner Earnings76.54 THB107.62 THB160.46 THB74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF131.98 THB180.52 THB263.06 THB78
Owner Earnings76.54 THB107.62 THB160.46 THB74
5Y Revenue Exit87.35 THB123.30 THB175.30 THB70
5Y EBITDA Exit72.03 THB96.81 THB129.72 THB74
5Y P/E Exit77.63 THB106.50 THB141.49 THB69
10Y Revenue Exit103.95 THB131.02 THB158.74 THB66
10Y EBITDA Exit97.19 THB115.82 THB133.91 THB68
10Y P/E Exit100.35 THB121.39 THB140.32 THB63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd44.40 THB54.52 THB61.42 THB65
EPV44.59 THB53.97 THB61.84 THB74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM11.96 THB12.92 THB14.35 THB67
DDM Multi-Stage11.96 THB14.35 THB17.47 THB65
Multiples
P/E Multiple68.55 THB91.40 THB114.25 THB63
P/S Multiple83.24 THB110.99 THB138.74 THB58
P/B Multiple50.52 THB67.35 THB84.19 THB55
EV/EBIT36.20 THB58.87 THB81.55 THB64
EV/EBITDA25.23 THB44.25 THB63.27 THB65
EV/Revenue50.71 THB86.09 THB121.47 THB52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)37.77 THB50.62 THB75.55 THB54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF137.25 THB183.40 THB255.85 THB77
Rev-Margin DCF87.35 THB127.29 THB177.72 THB71
Economic Profit
Residual Income62.82 THB67.18 THB73.81 THB74
ROIC Compounder44.59 THB53.97 THB61.84 THB70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E49.32 THB70.46 THB91.60 THB65
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.2% vs −2.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−15.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.8% a year for the price and −5.3% for the forecasts.
Compare Thai Oil Public Company Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+40.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.0% · Above median
Return on assets3.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)9.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.65× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thai Oil Public Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOP
Frequently asked questions
Is Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 78.03 THB versus a price of 55.75 THB, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TOP?
Our model-based fair value for Thai Oil Public Company Limited is 78.03 THB (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 55.75 THB.
What is the quality score of TOP?
Thai Oil Public Company Limited has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 78.03 THB (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 45.96 THB, optimistic scenario 103.55 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thai Oil Public Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 78.03 THB, about +40% upside versus a price of 55.75 THB (undervalued). Cautious scenario 45.96 THB, optimistic scenario 103.55 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
Thai Oil Public Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 382B THB (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Thai Oil Public Company Limited pay a dividend?
Thai Oil Public Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 1.79% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Thai Oil Public Company Limited pays a dividend of 1.00 THB per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 9, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2005. The payout ratio is 6.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 17.06 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Thai Oil Public Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -15.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.2 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOP use?
Our models discount Thai Oil Public Company Limited at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Thai Oil Public Company Limited that is -15.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Thai Oil Public Company Limited grew +10.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -15.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Thai Oil Public Company Limited (-15.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 30.60 %: that much free cash flow Thai Oil Public Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thai Oil Public Company Limited it is 78.03 THB per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of 55.75 THB. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Thai Oil Public Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, TOP trades below its calculated fair value: price 55.75 THB, fair value 78.03 THB, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (55.75 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (78.03 THB). For Thai Oil Public Company Limited the two are 22.28 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thai Oil Public Company Limited worth?
The market values Thai Oil Public Company Limited at about 125B THB (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is 55.75 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 78.03 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOP?
Our models span a range for Thai Oil Public Company Limited: cautious scenario 45.96 THB, base 78.03 THB, optimistic 103.55 THB per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price 55.75 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOP?
Thai Oil Public Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.8 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 78.03 THB is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 7.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.2.
What is the PEG ratio of TOP?
The PEG ratio of Thai Oil Public Company Limited is 0.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thai Oil Public Company Limited (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 16.0%, debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOP from its 52-week high?
Thai Oil Public Company Limited trades at 55.75 THB, about 28% below its 52-week high of 77.75 THB and 72% above the low of 32.44 THB (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 78.03 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thai Oil Public Company Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thai Oil Public Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price 55.75 THB, calculated fair value 78.03 THB (+40%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOP calculated?
We run Thai Oil Public Company Limited through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 78.03 THB builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Thai Oil Public Company Limited currently trades 29% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 55.75 THB. Our model-based fair value is 78.03 THB, about +40% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thai Oil Public Company Limited right now?
Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (45.96 THB to 103.55 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) come from?
Earnings per share at Thai Oil Public Company Limited grew −2.5 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.2 %, EBIT margin −5.6 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Thai Oil Public Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
The market capitalisation of Thai Oil Public Company Limited is 125B THB (≈ $3.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thai Oil Public Company Limited is 0.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
Earnings per share at Thai Oil Public Company Limited are 14.49 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
The dividend yield of Thai Oil Public Company Limited is 1.8% (payout 6.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
The net margin of Thai Oil Public Company Limited is 8.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thai Oil Public Company Limited is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thai Oil Public Company Limited is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
The operating margin of Thai Oil Public Company Limited is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
Revenue at Thai Oil Public Company Limited is growing +35.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP)?
Earnings per share at Thai Oil Public Company Limited are growing +27.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) carry?
The net debt of Thai Oil Public Company Limited is 71.1B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 3, 2026