Thai Oil Public Company (TOP) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · TH · Market cap 138B THB
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from 91.40 THB to 82.84 THB (−9.4%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +26.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 29% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- Our model range runs from 62.13 THB (bear) to 103.55 THB (bull), base 82.84 THB. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 58/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 20.61 THB – 65.75 THB · fair‑value band 62.13 THB – 103.55 THB · the 64.25 THB price screens below the 82.84 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Thai Oil Public Company (TOP) currently trades at 64.25 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 82.84 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 28.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Thai Oil Public Company generated revenue of 347B THB at a net margin of 8.8%. Revenue grew 14.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.5%. Net debt stands at 71.1B THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 62.13 THB (bear case) to 103.55 THB (bull case); at 64.25 THB, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 158% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at 29%, TOP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (130.58 THB) versus Dividend Discount (15.07 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Thai Oil Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the oil refining and distributions, petrochemicals, lube base oil, and other businesses in Thailand, Indonesia, and internationally. It operates through Oil Refinery, Lube Base Oil Refinery, Aromatics and LAB, Power Generation, Solvent, Ethanol, Olefins, and Others segments.
Full company description
Thai Oil Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the oil refining and distributions, petrochemicals, lube base oil, and other businesses in Thailand, Indonesia, and internationally. It operates through Oil Refinery, Lube Base Oil Refinery, Aromatics and LAB, Power Generation, Solvent, Ethanol, Olefins, and Others segments. The company offers refined fuels, including gasoline, diesel/gas oil, jet fuel, kerosene, fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas; and lube base oil, bitumen/asphalt, by-products, and special products, such as treated distillate aromatics extract and slack wax. It also provides petrochemicals comprising paraxylene, benzene, toluene, and mixed xylenes; linear alkyl benzene, heavy alkyl benzene, and molex raffinates; and polyethylene and polypropylene resins, styrene monomer, butadiene, and olefins. In addition, the company operates natural gas-fired co-generation power plants that generate and distribute electricity, steam, industrial water, and public utilities; and develops, invests, and operates power businesses. Further, it is involved in the manufacturing and distribution of solvents and chemicals; investments in venture capital funds and startup businesses; production of ethanol; management of human resources; provision of technical support and treasury advice; design, development, and maintenance of digital services and systems; social enterprise operation support; and pipeline transportation of refined petroleum products. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Thai Oil Public Company reported revenue of 394B THB in FY2025 versus 336B THB in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was 14.6B THB in FY2025, compounding +3.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,293 | ₹835.66 | -35% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $309.65 | $127.32 | -59% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $283.74 | $135.80 | -52% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $196.16 | $101.04 | -48% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.10 | €4.07 | -87% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 81.30 TWD | 16.68 TWD | -79% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.96 | ₹417.35 | +200% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $88.59 | $48.90 | -45% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹315.55 | ₹846.81 | +168% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 121,400 KRW | 58,865 KRW | -52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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