Tempest Security AB (TSEC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tempest Security AB stock SEK 10.52, price SEK 10.00, upside +5.2%, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 9.30 – kr 37.50 · fair‑value band kr 5.71 – kr 20.55 · the kr 10.00 price screens below the kr 10.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Tempest Security AB (publ) provides security services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Security Solutions and Risk Solutions. It offers alarm and CCTV surveillance and SOCs as a managed service. Tempest Security AB (publ) was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Tempest Security AB (TSEC) currently trades at kr 10.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 10.52, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.9%).
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: kr 5.71 (bear) to kr 20.55 (bull), the price of kr 10.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tempest Security AB reported revenue of 578M SEK in FY2025 versus 340M SEK in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was −10.7M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 105M SEK (≈ $10.6M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.18 · EPS (TTM) kr −1.14 · Net margin −1.8% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 1.1% · Revenue (TTM) 600M SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 5%, TSEC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 5.71Fair Value kr 10.52Bullkr 20.55
Price kr 10.00 · Upside +5.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.3% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.3% (2020) → −3.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 105 stocks
P/B5.61× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tempest Security AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSEC
Frequently asked questions
Is Tempest Security AB (TSEC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 10.52 versus a price of kr 10.00, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TSEC?
Our model-based fair value for Tempest Security AB is kr 10.52 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 10.00.
What is the quality score of TSEC?
Tempest Security AB has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 10.52 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 5.71, optimistic scenario kr 20.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tempest Security AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 10.52, about +5% upside versus a price of kr 10.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 5.71, optimistic scenario kr 20.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
Tempest Security AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 600M SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tempest Security AB it is kr 10.52 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of kr 10.00. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (DCF Models).
Is Tempest Security AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, TSEC trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 10.00, fair value kr 10.52, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSEC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 10.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 10.52). For Tempest Security AB the two are kr 0.5200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tempest Security AB worth?
The market values Tempest Security AB at about 105M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is kr 10.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 10.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSEC?
Our models span a range for Tempest Security AB: cautious scenario kr 5.71, base kr 10.52, optimistic kr 20.55 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price kr 10.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tempest Security AB (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSEC from its 52-week high?
Tempest Security AB trades at kr 10.00, about 28% below its 52-week high of kr 13.80 and 7% above the low of kr 9.35 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 10.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tempest Security AB?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Allegion plc, ADT Inc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tempest Security AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price kr 10.00, calculated fair value kr 10.52 (+5%), Quality Score 42/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSEC calculated?
We run Tempest Security AB through 1 models from 1 family: DCF Models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 10.52 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Tempest Security AB currently trades 5% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 10.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 10.52, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tempest Security AB right now?
The model range is unusually wide (kr 5.71 to kr 20.55). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Tempest Security AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
The market capitalisation of Tempest Security AB is 105M SEK (≈ $10.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tempest Security AB is 0.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
Earnings per share at Tempest Security AB are kr −1.14. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
The net margin of Tempest Security AB is −1.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tempest Security AB is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tempest Security AB is −5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
The operating margin of Tempest Security AB is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
Revenue at Tempest Security AB is growing +5.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
Earnings per share at Tempest Security AB are growing −24.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tempest Security AB (TSEC) generate?
The free cash flow of Tempest Security AB is −2.3M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tempest Security AB (TSEC) carry?
The net debt of Tempest Security AB is 36.6M SEK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 4, 2026