Tempest Security AB (TSEC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Tempest Security AB SEK 10.28, price SEK 9.70, upside +6.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 9.30 – kr 40.00 · fair‑value band kr 5.63 – kr 19.82 · the kr 9.70 price screens below the kr 10.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Tempest Security AB (publ) provides security services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Security Solutions and Risk Solutions. It offers alarm and CCTV surveillance and SOCs as a managed service. Tempest Security AB (publ) was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Tempest Security AB (TSEC) currently trades at kr 9.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 10.28, implying the stock looks roughly 5.6% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: kr 5.63 (bear) to kr 19.82 (bull), the price of kr 9.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tempest Security AB reported revenue of 578M SEK in FY2025 versus 340M SEK in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was −10.7M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 116M SEK (≈ $11.7M) · P/S ratio 0.20 · EPS (TTM) kr −1.12 · Net margin −1.8% · Return on equity −33.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.5% · Operating margin 1.4% · Revenue (TTM) 592M SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 6%, TSEC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 5.63Fair Value kr 10.28Bull kr 19.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.3% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.3% (2020) → −3.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 116 stocks
P/B0.63× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tempest Security AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSEC
Frequently asked questions
Is Tempest Security AB (TSEC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 10.28 versus a price of kr 9.70, about +6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TSEC?
Our model-based fair value for Tempest Security AB is kr 10.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 9.70.
What is the quality score of TSEC?
Tempest Security AB has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 10.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 5.63, optimistic scenario kr 19.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tempest Security AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 10.28, about +6% upside versus a price of kr 9.70 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 5.63, optimistic scenario kr 19.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
Tempest Security AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 592M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tempest Security AB it is kr 10.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 9.70. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tempest Security AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TSEC trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 9.70, fair value kr 10.28, a gap of about +6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSEC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 9.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 10.28). For Tempest Security AB the two are kr 0.5800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tempest Security AB worth?
The market values Tempest Security AB at about 116M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 9.70; our models calculate a fair value of kr 10.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSEC?
Our models span a range for Tempest Security AB: cautious scenario kr 5.63, base kr 10.28, optimistic kr 19.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 9.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tempest Security AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −33.0%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSEC from its 52-week high?
Tempest Security AB trades at kr 9.70, about 30% below its 52-week high of kr 13.80 and 4% above the low of kr 9.35 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 10.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tempest Security AB?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tempest Security AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 9.70, calculated fair value kr 10.28 (+6%), Quality Score 44/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSEC calculated?
We run Tempest Security AB through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 10.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tempest Security AB currently trades 6 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 9.70. Our model-based fair value is kr 10.28, about +6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tempest Security AB right now?
The model range is unusually wide (kr 5.63 to kr 19.82). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Tempest Security AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
The market capitalisation of Tempest Security AB is 116M SEK (≈ $11.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tempest Security AB is 0.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
Earnings per share at Tempest Security AB are kr −1.12. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
The net margin of Tempest Security AB is −1.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tempest Security AB is −33.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tempest Security AB is −5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
The operating margin of Tempest Security AB is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
Revenue at Tempest Security AB is growing +10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tempest Security AB (TSEC)?
Earnings per share at Tempest Security AB are growing −24.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tempest Security AB (TSEC) generate?
The free cash flow of Tempest Security AB is −2.3M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tempest Security AB (TSEC) carry?
The net debt of Tempest Security AB is 36.6M SEK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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