Tempest Security AB (TSEC) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · SE · Market cap 116M SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from kr 8.01 to kr 2.59 (−67.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +2.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 3.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 9.30 – kr 40.50 · fair‑value band kr 2.17 – kr 3.34 · the kr 11.20 price screens above the kr 2.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Tempest Security AB (TSEC) currently trades at kr 11.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 2.59, implying the stock looks roughly 76.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tempest Security AB generated revenue of 577M SEK at a net margin of -2.0%. Revenue grew 26.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -47.7%. Net debt stands at 36.6M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 2.17 (bear case) to kr 3.34 (bull case); at kr 11.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -77%, TSEC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (kr 7.23) versus Asset-Based (kr 1.19). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tempest Security AB (publ) provides security services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Security Solutions and Risk Solutions. It offers alarm and CCTV surveillance and SOCs as a managed service. Tempest Security AB (publ) was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tempest Security AB reported revenue of kr 578M in FY2025 versus kr 340M in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was −kr 10.7M in FY2025.
TSEC screens 77% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →
Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 348.40 | kr 269.97 | -23% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €10.26 | €12.40 | +21% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $137.24 | $127.80 | -7% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 162.10 | kr 186.34 | +15% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.57 | ¥23.58 | +42% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $169.00 | $118.51 | -30% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.06 | $17.10 | +142% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $104.24 | $101.84 | -2% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $90.16 | $73.43 | -19% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $29.46 | $32.36 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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