Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tsubakimoto Chain Co stock $32.98, price $16.09, upside +105.0%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
19‑month range $13.02 – $16.09 · fair‑value band $23.16 – $40.48 · the $16.09 price screens below the $32.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Tsubakimoto Chain Co. manufactures and sells chains, motion control, mobility, materials handling systems components in Japan.
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The company offers power transmission products include drive, small size, large size, plastic modular, top, and plastic block chains; sprockets, house and cable carrier systems, timing belts and pulleys, reducers, locking devices, shaft couplings, linear actuators, electrical controllers, mechanical protectors, and clutches.
It also provides sorting/conveyance, life science support equipment, newspaper handling system, conveyance and storage systems, bulk handling systems, metalworking chips handling and coolant processing systems, and high-speed lifters; clutch for drivetrain, timing chain system, Enedrive chain, clutch for e-bike and motorcycle, zip chain actuator, and cableveyor; and eLINK V2X Bi-Directional EV Charging System.
Its products are used in automobile, resources/materials, food/medical, infrastructure/environment, and living/amusement sectors. Tsubakimoto Chain Co. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF) currently trades at $16.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.98, implying the stock looks roughly 51% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $33.64 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the $16.09 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.23, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $23.16 (bear) to $40.48 (bull), the price of $16.09 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Tsubakimoto Chain Co reported revenue of ¥296B in FY2026 versus ¥252B in FY2023, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥29.7B in FY2026, compounding +29.3%/yr from FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B Small · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 0.86 · EPS (TTM) $1.88 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 10.0% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% (4-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 105%, TSKMF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$23.16Fair Value $32.98Bull$40.48
Price $16.09 · Upside +105.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8363 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +7.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Profit margin 2023 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 7%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 66% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 814 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside+105.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.7% · Above median
Return on assets6.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)30.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tsubakimoto Chain Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSKMF
Frequently asked questions
Is Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.98 versus a price of $16.09, about +105% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TSKMF?
Our model-based fair value for Tsubakimoto Chain Co is $32.98 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.09.
What is the quality score of TSKMF?
Tsubakimoto Chain Co has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.98 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.16, optimistic scenario $40.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tsubakimoto Chain Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.98, about +105% upside versus a price of $16.09 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $23.16, optimistic scenario $40.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
Tsubakimoto Chain Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥316B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Tsubakimoto Chain Co pay a dividend?
Tsubakimoto Chain Co currently shows a dividend yield of 3.14% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Tsubakimoto Chain Co pays a dividend of $0.505 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.1%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. The payout ratio is 27.1% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.96 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tsubakimoto Chain Co would have to grow free cash flow by -8.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +5.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TSKMF use?
Our models discount Tsubakimoto Chain Co at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tsubakimoto Chain Co that is -8.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Tsubakimoto Chain Co grew +5.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -8.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tsubakimoto Chain Co (-8.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.03 %: that much free cash flow Tsubakimoto Chain Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tsubakimoto Chain Co it is $32.98 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $16.09. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Tsubakimoto Chain Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TSKMF trades below its calculated fair value: price $16.09, fair value $32.98, a gap of about +105% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSKMF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.98). For Tsubakimoto Chain Co the two are $16.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tsubakimoto Chain Co worth?
The market values Tsubakimoto Chain Co at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $16.09; our models calculate a fair value of $32.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSKMF?
Our models span a range for Tsubakimoto Chain Co: cautious scenario $23.16, base $32.98, optimistic $40.48 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $16.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSKMF?
Tsubakimoto Chain Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.98 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tsubakimoto Chain Co (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSKMF from its 52-week high?
Tsubakimoto Chain Co trades at $16.09, at its 52-week high of $16.09 and 19% above the low of $13.52 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tsubakimoto Chain Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tsubakimoto Chain Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $16.09, calculated fair value $32.98 (+105%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSKMF calculated?
We run Tsubakimoto Chain Co through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $32.98 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Tsubakimoto Chain Co currently trades 51% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $16.09. Our model-based fair value is $32.98, about +105% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tsubakimoto Chain Co right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($23.16). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Tsubakimoto Chain Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The market capitalisation of Tsubakimoto Chain Co is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tsubakimoto Chain Co is 0.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
Earnings per share at Tsubakimoto Chain Co are $1.88 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The dividend yield of Tsubakimoto Chain Co is 3.1% (payout 26.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The net margin of Tsubakimoto Chain Co is 10.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tsubakimoto Chain Co is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tsubakimoto Chain Co is 5.4% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The operating margin of Tsubakimoto Chain Co is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
Revenue at Tsubakimoto Chain Co is growing +30.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
Earnings per share at Tsubakimoto Chain Co are growing −4.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026