Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 21, 2026: fair value of Tsubakimoto Chain Co $23.63, price $15.07, upside +56.8%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Tsubakimoto Chain Co. manufactures and sells chains, motion control, mobility, materials handling systems components in Japan.
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Tsubakimoto Chain Co. manufactures and sells chains, motion control, mobility, materials handling systems components in Japan. The company offers power transmission products include drive, small size, large size, plastic modular, top, and plastic block chains; sprockets, house and cable carrier systems, timing belts and pulleys, reducers, locking devices, shaft couplings, linear actuators, electrical controllers, mechanical protectors, and clutches. It also provides sorting/conveyance, life science support equipment, newspaper handling system, conveyance and storage systems, bulk handling systems, metalworking chips handling and coolant processing systems, and high-speed lifters; clutch for drivetrain, timing chain system, Enedrive chain, clutch for e-bike and motorcycle, zip chain actuator, and cableveyor; and eLINK V2X Bi-Directional EV Charging System. Its products are used in automobile, resources/materials, food/medical, infrastructure/environment, and living/amusement sectors. Tsubakimoto Chain Co. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF) currently trades at $15.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.63, implying the stock looks roughly 36.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $24.28 per share, and 17 of the 22 models we run sit above the $15.07 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.54, and 5 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $16.62 (bear) to $30.72 (bull), the price of $15.07 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Tsubakimoto Chain Co reported revenue of ¥279B in FY2025 versus ¥252B in FY2023, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥22.1B in FY2025, compounding +26.9%/yr from FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5B · P/E ratio 10.2 · P/S ratio 0.81 · EPS (TTM) $1.48 · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7% · Operating margin 7.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at 57%, TSKMF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $16.62Fair Value $23.63Bull $30.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.48 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 826 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+57% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tsubakimoto Chain Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSKMF
Frequently asked questions
Is Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.63 versus a price of $15.07, about +57% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TSKMF?
Our model-based fair value for Tsubakimoto Chain Co is $23.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.07.
What is the quality score of TSKMF?
Tsubakimoto Chain Co has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.62, optimistic scenario $30.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tsubakimoto Chain Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.63, about +57% upside versus a price of $15.07 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $16.62, optimistic scenario $30.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
Tsubakimoto Chain Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥296B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tsubakimoto Chain Co would have to grow free cash flow by -3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew +5.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TSKMF use?
Our models discount Tsubakimoto Chain Co at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tsubakimoto Chain Co that is -3.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at Tsubakimoto Chain Co grew +5.4 % a year. The price currently implies -3.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tsubakimoto Chain Co (-3.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.70 %: that much free cash flow Tsubakimoto Chain Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tsubakimoto Chain Co it is $23.63 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $15.07. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tsubakimoto Chain Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TSKMF trades below its calculated fair value: price $15.07, fair value $23.63, a gap of about +57% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSKMF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.63). For Tsubakimoto Chain Co the two are $8.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tsubakimoto Chain Co worth?
The market values Tsubakimoto Chain Co at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $15.07; our models calculate a fair value of $23.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSKMF?
Our models span a range for Tsubakimoto Chain Co: cautious scenario $16.62, base $23.63, optimistic $30.72 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $15.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSKMF?
Tsubakimoto Chain Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.63 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 5.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tsubakimoto Chain Co (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.5%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Tsubakimoto Chain Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tsubakimoto Chain Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $15.07, calculated fair value $23.63 (+57%), Quality Score 69/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSKMF calculated?
We run Tsubakimoto Chain Co through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tsubakimoto Chain Co currently trades 57 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $15.07. Our model-based fair value is $23.63, about +57% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tsubakimoto Chain Co right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($16.62). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($16.62 to $30.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tsubakimoto Chain Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The market capitalisation of Tsubakimoto Chain Co is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tsubakimoto Chain Co is 0.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
Earnings per share at Tsubakimoto Chain Co are $1.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The net margin of Tsubakimoto Chain Co is 7.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tsubakimoto Chain Co is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tsubakimoto Chain Co is 5.7% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
The operating margin of Tsubakimoto Chain Co is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
Revenue at Tsubakimoto Chain Co is growing +19.1% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF)?
Earnings per share at Tsubakimoto Chain Co are growing +91.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Sep 23, 2026