Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $1.5B

A solid business, screening 72% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($18.10). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (4 months)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

4‑month range $14.00 – $15.07 · fair‑value band $18.10 – $32.14 · the $15.07 price screens below the $25.94 fair value. As of Jul 21, 2026.

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Analysis

Tsubakimoto Chain Co (TSKMF) currently trades at $15.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.94, implying the stock looks roughly 72.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tsubakimoto Chain Co generated revenue of $296B at a net margin of 10.0%. Revenue grew 19.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.5%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 9.5. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $18.10 (bear case) to $32.14 (bull case); at $15.07, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at 72%, TSKMF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($25.94) versus Asset-Based ($11.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Tsubakimoto Chain Co. manufactures and sells chains, motion control, mobility, materials handling systems components in Japan.

Full company description

Tsubakimoto Chain Co. manufactures and sells chains, motion control, mobility, materials handling systems components in Japan. The company offers power transmission products include drive, small size, large size, plastic modular, top, and plastic block chains; sprockets, house and cable carrier systems, timing belts and pulleys, reducers, locking devices, shaft couplings, linear actuators, electrical controllers, mechanical protectors, and clutches. It also provides sorting/conveyance, life science support equipment, newspaper handling system, conveyance and storage systems, bulk handling systems, metalworking chips handling and coolant processing systems, and high-speed lifters; clutch for drivetrain, timing chain system, Enedrive chain, clutch for e-bike and motorcycle, zip chain actuator, and cableveyor; and eLINK V2X Bi-Directional EV Charging System. Its products are used in automobile, resources/materials, food/medical, infrastructure/environment, and living/amusement sectors. Tsubakimoto Chain Co. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2023 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tsubakimoto Chain Co reported revenue of $279B in FY2025 versus $252B in FY2023, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was $22.1B in FY2025, compounding +26.9%/yr from FY2023.

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Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.